Coronavirus (OLD)

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Paul

Thank you Mr Doom & Gloom, you must be a real blast at parties.

It does take all sorts to make this forum.

[jfman]

If there was cause for optimism I’d share it.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by jfman

If there was cause for optimism I’d share it.

Given the latest numbers and one country now offically in its second lockdown you might well be right.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

There's no solid evidence for this, merely optimistic speculation.

You really need to read things before making statements on evidence that doesn’t fit your narrative.

T-cell immunity is a well researched and published scientific fact, and although more research needs to be done on the levels of immunity to COVID 19, as it is new, the has been lots of research done with other novel Corona-viruses such as SARS and MERS

In relation to COVID article states

I think the good news is that most people who’ve been infected – from those who are hospitalised through to those who are asymptomatic – seem to have decent levels of T cell immunity. It’s also a very widely targeted immunity, meaning that an array of different proteins made by the virus become targets for T cells.

doesn’t read as idle speculation to me.

[Sephiroth]

On the question of re-infection, the missing link in understanding what's actually happening is as follows:

The articles I've read do not state whether or not the re-infected person developed symptoms and became ill. I can certainly imagine a person becoming re-infected, testing positive, but the immune system having dealt with the infection.

Anyone know the situation there?

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Repeatedly, without evidence...

You were sent the press item. I incorrectly stated that it was a scientific calculation, but actually it was a mathematical calculation.

I guess it's only 'evidence' if it says what you want it to say.

On social media I tend not to read the comments. Here I have to and it's remarkably similar to social media..

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

A 'school of thought' - in other words idle speculation. You can continue to bury your head in the sand all you please, but when we follow France and Italy into the 10,000 infections a day category and it inevitably overspills into the at risk age groups you can't say you weren't warned.

Is that Sweden where they closed the high schools and everyone that can work from home is working from home? Sweden that is also taking a hit on GDP? All the data points towards people adhering in some respect to scientific recommendations. Behaviour that your average "I know better than scientists" Brit moron would be incapable of doing voluntarily.

You're once again living in a fantasy world based on selective use of information. The good news is it's impossible for us to go down the Sweden route without overwhelming the NHS, hundreds of thousands of deaths, and people will not stand for it.

The capitalist wet dream of normal isn't ever coming back.

It is not 'wild speculation'. What is wild speculation is believing that you can lock everyone down forever.

If you really believe in this nonsense view, jfman, it is pointless continuing this debate with you.

---------- Post added at 09:06 ---------- Previous post was at 09:01 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

You've not backed this up with any evidence, Old Boy. We were able to find one maths professor in Bristol who had modelled this but he was subsequently discredited.

I'm no fan of lockdowns due to the negative economic and social impact they have. But given the situation in UK hospitals, which presumably Sweden didn't have, we had no choice.

I read that an alternative opinion was expressed, not that he was discredited. The fact is that despite coming from 'experts' it is all speculation at this point. It's a new virus, so what else can it be?

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Pierre

You really need to read things before making statements on evidence that doesn’t fit your narrative.

T-cell immunity is a well researched and published scientific fact, and although more research needs to be done on the levels of immunity to COVID 19, as it is new, the has been lots of research done with other novel Corona-viruses such as SARS and MERS

In relation to COVID article states

doesn’t read as idle speculation to me.

Yeah, this harks back to a paper I mentioned a while back where researchers in Singapore looked at T-cell responses to people who had COVID, has SARS 17 years ago or had neither. All COVID exposed patients had responses which isn't surprising. However, all SARS exposed patients showed some level of responses.

Most interestingly is that 19 out of 37 unexposed individuals also showed a response.

The only caveats are that the sample sizes are small and geographically localised in Singapore. Also, there is no further study of T-cell responses and clinical outcomes but all in all, things look hopeful...

EDIT - here's the paper for lovers of immunology and enjoy flow cytometry... - https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

On the question of re-infection, the missing link in understanding what's actually happening is as follows:

The articles I've read do not state whether or not the re-infected person developed symptoms and became ill. I can certainly imagine a person becoming re-infected, testing positive, but the immune system having dealt with the infection.

Anyone know the situation there?

From what I read these are cases where an infection did take hold and they had symptoms. However, the symptoms where reportedly a lot milder and the infection dealt with faster, i.e although they were reinfected the immune system still managed to deal with it quicker.

I don't fully understand it but I think the immune system can do two things: stop an infection before it even takes, fight it after it does.

The other thing though is sometimes having had an infection or even having had a vaccine you can randomly simply not develop antibodies against it. It's not common but it does happen.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Maggy

On social media I tend not to read the comments. Here I have to and it's remarkably similar to social media..

Amazing when some say they have no interest in social media.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

You really need to read things before making statements on evidence that doesn’t fit your narrative.

T-cell immunity is a well researched and published scientific fact, and although more research needs to be done on the levels of immunity to COVID 19, as it is new, the has been lots of research done with other novel Corona-viruses such as SARS and MERS

In relation to COVID article states

doesn’t read as idle speculation to me.

It’s speculation to assume that we are far down the road to “herd immunity” on the basis of this, in particular why the UK would benefit from it but not however Spain, Italy, France or other countries embarking on their second wave.

Wishful thinking in my book.

---------- Post added at 09:17 ---------- Previous post was at 09:14 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

It is not 'wild speculation'. What is wild speculation is believing that you can lock everyone down forever.

If you really believe in this nonsense view, jfman, it is pointless continuing this debate with you.

---------- Post added at 09:06 ---------- Previous post was at 09:01 ----------



I read that an alternative opinion was expressed, not that he was discredited. The fact is that despite coming from 'experts' it is all speculation at this point. It's a new virus, so what else can it be?

It’s wild speculation. And nobody, anywhere, has suggested locking everyone down forever. Misrepresenting my posts is second only to your skill in not evidencing your own.

I do agree however that there’s little value in continuing a debate with you on the topic if you persist in following wishful thinking above science. The virus doesn’t care for your politics, your stiff upper lip or English exceptionalism. We’re playing by the same rules as everyone else - all that’s happening is some are skewing the narrative, undermining science, people are less adherent to rules and this situation goes on for longer - hitting health and the economy. I don’t mind one of those being hit because it’s in dire need of rebalancing anyway, and the virus presents a once in as generation opportunity - but I do care about the health angle.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

It’s speculation to assume that we are far down the road to “herd immunity” on the basis of this, in particular why the UK would benefit from it but not however Spain, Italy, France or other countries embarking on their second wave.

Wishful thinking in my book.

---------- Post added at 09:17 ---------- Previous post was at 09:14 ----------



It’s wild speculation. And nobody, anywhere, has suggested locking everyone down forever. Misrepresenting my posts is second only to your skill in not evidencing your own.

I do agree however that there’s little value in continuing a debate with you on the topic if you persist in following wishful thinking above science. The virus doesn’t care for your politics, your stiff upper lip or English exceptionalism. We’re playing by the same rules as everyone else.

You are speculating yourself, and you are also, as ever, stretching what other people say to suit your strange views of what is happening.

Let's get one thing clear. I am certainly not saying there won't be a second wave. I have merely said that if it is true that if the late lockdown resulted in our reaching the same peak of the virus that we would have reached anyway, we may avoid a second wave anywhere near as extreme as the first one. That makes sense.

However, equally, it may not be so, and in fact although there was no lockdown with the 1918 Spanish Flu pandemic, there was still a devastating second wave.

I have been consistent in saying that this virus is going nowhere, and if we have not yet reached herd immunity, it will be back, lockdowns or no lockdowns.

Your solution is to lock us all up and hide ourselves away. For years! What kind of nonsense is that? If you want to lock yourself up, be my guest!

[EDIT]
Oh, so now you are not saying that we should lock down until a vaccine is found! I'm glad we've sorted that out.

So, what is your solution to this problem, jfman? If you are not going for the herd immunity solution and you are not going for a long lockdown, then what are you saying?

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

You were sent the press item. I incorrectly stated that it was a scientific calculation, but actually it was a mathematical calculation.

I guess it's only 'evidence' if it says what you want it to say.

Not from you...

Peer-reviewed papers are "evidence", which this is not - it’s one Prof of Stats views, not backed up by any other papers/research.

From the Bristol Uni web-page

Read the paper (not yet peer reviewed) at: https://arxiv.org/abs/2005.02090

I guess it's 'evidence' if it says what you want it to say...

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Not from you...

Peer-reviewed papers are "evidence", which this is not - it’s one Prof of Stats views, not backed up by any other papers/research.

From the Bristol Uni web-page



I guess it's 'evidence' if it says what you want it to say...

I think you are stretching it, Hugh. Ok, it's a theory, but it is still evidence to support what I was saying.

True, the two articles that were produced did not come from me because someone beat me to it, but it was the second of those articles I was referring to in my original post.