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Linear is old tech - on demand is the future
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Old 02-12-2019, 19:31   #1186
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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The BBC must plan for a future where a large proportion of its audience never watch its traditional television channels, its director general will say, as he calls for the iPlayer catch-up service to become a rival to Netflix...

...Hall will tell an audience of senior television executives that the iPlayer lies at the heart of the BBC’s strategy, with proposals for more titles, box sets and programmes to be available for at least 12 months after broadcast instead of just a month. He will also call for more live programmes and archive material.

His proposals come as projections from Enders Analysis suggest traditional television channels will account for less than 50% of video viewing in the UK by 2026.

The analysts predict traditional channels such as BBC One and ITV will become the preserve of older viewers who are used to watching shows at a fixed time, with younger consumers switching to on-demand viewing and services such as YouTube.
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The BBC is preparing a complete revamp of its iPlayer streaming service in the face of competition from Netflix, as it prepares for a life beyond traditional television channels.

The move is the latest attempt by the corporation to deal with changes in the way that people consume television and maintain its relevance to younger audiences.

The BBC expects iPlayer to become the main way people view its programmes. Shows will be made available by default for up to a year, rather than the previous 30-day limit.

Although traditional television channels still account for the vast proportion of British TV viewing, and the broadcaster intends to focus on those channels and on-demand for the foreseeable future, the transition to streaming risks leaving the BBC behind.
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The BBC faces a serious “threat to its future” as younger viewers increasingly turn to streaming services such as Netflix and YouTube, according to Ofcom.

In their annual report on the corporation, the regulator expressed serious concerns about how younger viewers are turning to other platforms, saying “support for the licence fee in future could be eroded” if younger audiences continue to turn away from the platform.
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Last edited by pip08456; 02-12-2019 at 19:35.
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Old 02-12-2019, 19:50   #1187
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

That's all genuinely interesting, pip, but the thing is none of it says there will be no linear channels in the future, and even if you could stretch it to that point it doesn't say 2035.

The BBC obviously has to justify its own existence, and the licence fee, by ensuring it is as widely available and adapts to consumer behaviour. Otherwise, the tax would easily be swept aside by a political party aspiring for votes at a General Election.

I've covered on a number of occasions the very low bar that is the threshold for it to remain worthwhile broadcasting linear television because of how cheap it actually is for a company who already holds the rights to the programming.

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Old 02-12-2019, 21:31   #1188
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
That's all genuinely interesting, pip, but the thing is none of it says there will be no linear channels in the future, and even if you could stretch it to that point it doesn't say 2035.

The BBC obviously has to justify its own existence, and the licence fee, by ensuring it is as widely available and adapts to consumer behaviour. Otherwise, the tax would easily be swept aside by a political party aspiring for votes at a General Election.

I've covered on a number of occasions the very low bar that is the threshold for it to remain worthwhile broadcasting linear television because of how cheap it actually is for a company who already holds the rights to the programming.

Did OB say that there wouldn't be any linear channels? I'm pretty sure he didn't, he did say that there has to be linear TV to show live sports!
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Old 02-12-2019, 21:55   #1189
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Did OB say that there wouldn't be any linear channels? I'm pretty sure he didn't, he did say that there has to be linear TV to show live sports!
Well there doesn’t really. A live stream can be set up ad-hoc to deliver sport (like Sky red button streams).

Linear TV as I think most of us understand it is a (usually) 24 hour broadcast where they schedule programming at specific times. Usage of the word linear aside that’s what we’ve all been talking about al this time. And yes, he said there would be no linear channels as advertising revenue wouldn’t sustain the model.
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Old 02-12-2019, 22:49   #1190
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
That's all genuinely interesting, pip, but the thing is none of it says there will be no linear channels in the future, and even if you could stretch it to that point it doesn't say 2035.

The BBC obviously has to justify its own existence, and the licence fee, by ensuring it is as widely available and adapts to consumer behaviour. Otherwise, the tax would easily be swept aside by a political party aspiring for votes at a General Election.

I've covered on a number of occasions the very low bar that is the threshold for it to remain worthwhile broadcasting linear television because of how cheap it actually is for a company who already holds the rights to the programming.
No, but it does say
Quote:
His proposals come as projections from Enders Analysis suggest traditional television channels will account for less than 50% of video viewing
in the UK by 2026.
What will that figure be by 2035?
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Old 02-12-2019, 23:17   #1191
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

Who knows, it could be 10% by 2035. Linear will still be viable due to the low cost of broadcasting. Just look at the number of countries with less than 10% of the population of the UK that have independent TV channels. As with all projections the low hanging fruit is the easiest to achieve. The final ten per cent will be much harder.

I don’t expect it to be as low as 10%, but linear is still viable at that level. If you are Sky or anyone else paying hundreds of millions in rights the actual broadcast (over and above the rest of delivery methods you are using anyway) is relative pennies. As channels close the 10% becomes quite a captive audience.

DTT was viable even in the ITV digital days (the pay platform obviously wasn’t) when it was a gateway to a couple of million homes.
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Old 03-12-2019, 09:02   #1192
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
Who knows, it could be 10% by 2035. Linear will still be viable due to the low cost of broadcasting. Just look at the number of countries with less than 10% of the population of the UK that have independent TV channels. As with all projections the low hanging fruit is the easiest to achieve. The final ten per cent will be much harder.

I don’t expect it to be as low as 10%, but linear is still viable at that level. If you are Sky or anyone else paying hundreds of millions in rights the actual broadcast (over and above the rest of delivery methods you are using anyway) is relative pennies. As channels close the 10% becomes quite a captive audience.

DTT was viable even in the ITV digital days (the pay platform obviously wasn’t) when it was a gateway to a couple of million homes.
That was before we even had Netflix!

As for your 10%, you won't get much in the way of quality viewing on that small audience! Just a few short years ago ITV nearly went under because there was insufficient advertising to support the cost of programming.

It should be clear to you, particularly with your outstanding economics expertise that is, we understand, second to none, that 10% of the audience is not going to generate the same amount of revenue from advertising. Something has to give, and why, when the system changes to IPTV, would the broadcasters would want to duplicate a system which provides an unsatisfactory plethora of channels when the content can be packaged into all-embracing streaming services?
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Old 03-12-2019, 09:20   #1193
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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That was before we even had Netflix!

As for your 10%, you won't get much in the way of quality viewing on that small audience! Just a few short years ago ITV nearly went under because there was insufficient advertising to support the cost of programming.

It should be clear to you, particularly with your outstanding economics expertise that is, we understand, second to none, that 10% of the audience is not going to generate the same amount of revenue from advertising. Something has to give, and why, when the system changes to IPTV, would the broadcasters would want to duplicate a system which provides an unsatisfactory plethora of channels when the content can be packaged into all-embracing streaming services?
There's absolutely no need for sarcasm in your posts Old Boy, although it's unsurprising as you don't have a case so you persist with personalising it against me.

You are also arguing against points I didn't actually make - which is the norm.

At no point did I make reference to the quality, or otherwise, of linear television. Neither did I claim there would be the same amount of ad revenue floating around - pro rata - as there is today. The fact ITV nearly "went under" as you put it was programming costs which would exist anyway for ITV streaming. You are the one seeing the world in a dull black and white options when the rest of us are watching in colour.

Why would the broadcasters want to duplicate? Same reason they do today I presume with repeats, plus 1 content, on demand and online live streams. It costs virtually nothing compared to all the other operating costs of TV channel/streaming service/pay tv platform.

There's also the risk that if one company doesn't another will - and that company gets "free" advertising every time someone switches their television on and it goes to channel 1/101, in every bedroom, in every hotel room - hell even in every caravan in the country. I think Sky, or anyone else frankly, would jump at that opportunity in addition to the pay platform, streaming, Now TV and the multitude of other ways their content is available.
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Old 03-12-2019, 09:52   #1194
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Re: Linear is old tech - on demand is the future

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
There's absolutely no need for sarcasm in your posts Old Boy, although it's unsurprising as you don't have a case so you persist with personalising it against me.

You are also arguing against points I didn't actually make - which is the norm.

At no point did I make reference to the quality, or otherwise, of linear television. Neither did I claim there would be the same amount of ad revenue floating around - pro rata - as there is today. The fact ITV nearly "went under" as you put it was programming costs which would exist anyway for ITV streaming. You are the one seeing the world in a dull black and white options when the rest of us are watching in colour.

Why would the broadcasters want to duplicate? Same reason they do today I presume with repeats, plus 1 content, on demand and online live streams. It costs virtually nothing compared to all the other operating costs of TV channel/streaming service/pay tv platform.

There's also the risk that if one company doesn't another will - and that company gets "free" advertising every time someone switches their television on and it goes to channel 1/101, in every bedroom, in every hotel room - hell even in every caravan in the country. I think Sky, or anyone else frankly, would jump at that opportunity in addition to the pay platform, streaming, Now TV and the multitude of other ways their content is available.
Well, we'll see how that works out, jfman.
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