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The future of television
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Old 15-06-2021, 18:52   #331
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Re: The future of television

Mods I think someone has hacked OB
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Old 15-06-2021, 18:55   #332
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Re: The future of television

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman View Post
OB you’ve messed up the quotes again.
I did indeed, my friend, but if you had waited for a few more minutes, you will see that I corrected it.

I'm sure you got the message, though.

---------- Post added at 18:55 ---------- Previous post was at 18:54 ----------

Quote:
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Mods I think someone has hacked OB
I just want some peace, man, and everyone is well past fed up.
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Old 15-06-2021, 18:59   #333
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Re: The future of television

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
I did indeed, my friend, but if you had waited for a few more minutes, you will see that I corrected it.

I'm sure you got the message, though.

---------- Post added at 18:55 ---------- Previous post was at 18:54 ----------



I just want some peace, man.
Always had you down as a bit of a hippy OB. Bet you were there, stoned, at the first Glasto
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Old 15-06-2021, 19:09   #334
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Re: The future of television

Can I point out that for most scheduled linear channels to close by 2035, a number of things would have to happen.

1) The PSB mandate would have to be abolished

2) Appropriate broadband would have to be installed to nearly all the country, including all those out of the way towns, villages, and hamlets

3) 25 million people would have to change their viewing habits drastically

To explain 3) further, let’s look the U.K. demographics - at the moment, most of the move away from linear broadcasting is in the under-35s. In the U.K. today, the average life-span is 81 (averaging out male/female life expectancy), and the age breakdown (rounded figures) is as follows -

0-35 - 29 million

35-64 - 25.5million

64+ - 12 million

For the sake of discussion, let’s say the existing 64+ will have shuffled off this mortal coil in 14 years - that leaves over 25 million who are major users of linear broadcasting.

I find it difficult to see the circumstances where a majority of that group of viewers would give up how they currently view from a combination of linear and streaming to streaming only.

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Old 15-06-2021, 19:12   #335
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Re: The future of television

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Originally Posted by Mr K View Post
Always had you down as a bit of a hippy OB. Bet you were there, stoned, at the first Glasto
If only, Mr K. But I have put it on my bucket list.
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Old 15-06-2021, 19:22   #336
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Re: The future of television

Do I be pedantic in favour of OB here....

Decisions, decisions.
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Old 15-06-2021, 19:42   #337
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Re: The future of television

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
Do I be pedantic in favour of OB here....

Decisions, decisions.
I think that event was due to happen on 21 June, now 19 July.
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Old 15-06-2021, 23:13   #338
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Re: The future of television

So, there’s hundreds of channels of pure garbage out there (not counting +1s that’s essentially cheating ) that I think most could close by 2035. Not generally because broadcasters go to the wall (they’ll all stream anyway) but there will be competing pressure for bandwidth (especially on the cable network) and satellite operators reluctant to go further in commissioning many new birds.

I’ve said before OB is right in spotting trends my issue was always “to zero” - it’s difficult for market forces alone to drive that kind of radical change in a short timeframe. Viewers are agnostic but the nudge is well under way, investment in internet connectivity continues.

A Freeview service of 15-20 HD channels (if it’s worth selling off more bandwidth) and a satellite/cable offering of a further 40-60 UHD/HD channels supplemented by on-demand/streaming is something I could envisage by 2035. I could see streamers launching IPTV channels to promote content but I don’t see this as meaningfully changing the total.
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Old 16-06-2021, 07:38   #339
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Re: The future of television

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh View Post
Cant I point out that for most scheduled linear channels to close by 2035, a number of things would have to happen.

1) The PSB mandate would have to be abolished

2) Appropriate broadband would have to be installed to nearly all the country, including all those out of the way towns, villages, and hamlets

3) 25 million people would have to change their viewing habits drastically

To explain 3) further, let’s look the U.K. demographics - at the moment, most of the move away from linear broadcasting is in the under-35s. In the U.K. today, the average life-span is 81 (averaging out male/female life expectancy), and the age breakdown (rounded figures) is as follows -

0-35 - 29 million

35-64 - 25.5million

64+ - 12 million

For the sake of discussion, let’s say the existing 64+ will have shuffled off this mortal coil in 14 years - that leaves over 25 million who are major users of linear broadcasting.

I find it difficult to see the circumstances where a majority of that group of viewers would give up how they currently view from a combination of linear and streaming to streaming only.

It is possible because:

(1) The PSB arrangements are to be reviewed and they could change the way the rules are applied. We know that to be the case and it has been widely reported.

(2) The broadband rollout continues and all homes will be connected within the next 10 years.

(3) It is not just a question of habits having to change. If Sky's operation becomes IPTV only and the broadcast transmitters are closed down (and I know some on here don't believe it will happen, but I do), then everything will be IPTV. While some of you believe that broadcasting over IPTV will still allow access to scheduled linear TV channels, I would point out the the ITV Hub, All4 and My5 have not done this, and there is no reason to suppose they will in the future.

So if I am correct in those assumptions, the choice to view existing channels will simply not be there.
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Old 16-06-2021, 07:52   #340
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Re: The future of television

If ... could be ... suppose ... assumptions ...
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Old 16-06-2021, 08:14   #341
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Re: The future of television

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If ... could be ... suppose ... assumptions ...
Well, what else is there when we are talking about the future? I have assumed that there will not be an apocalyptic Third World War that destroys infrastructure around the planet as well, but I think it is a reasonable assumption.

Incidentally, my assumptions are based on technical articles I have read, so it is not as pie in the sky as some of you like to make out.
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Old 16-06-2021, 08:16   #342
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Re: The future of television

“Technical articles” ... right.

Well you know the first rule of the Dunning-Kruger club.
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Old 16-06-2021, 09:06   #343
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Re: The future of television

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris View Post
“Technical articles” ... right.

Well you know the first rule of the Dunning-Kruger club.
They don’t know they are in the Dunning-Kruger club?
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Old 16-06-2021, 09:08   #344
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Re: The future of television

In the "most" scenario I outlined above I envisage PSB to be relatively unchanged. As broadcasters they will evolve and have feet in both camps retaining linear channels over DTT/cable/Sky/streaming for a universal service.

While 100% FTTP is extremely unlikely once that figure is in the mid to high 90s we have opted for a "two tier" Freeview service based on what multiplexes can be received - I can see this being enough to support a significant shift.

I think demographic shift supports the direction of travel. For OBs point 3) I doubt broadcast transmitters will close down as soon as that to preserve 1) and broadcast something to the gaps in 2).
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Old 16-06-2021, 09:46   #345
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Re: The future of television

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They don’t know they are in the Dunning-Kruger club?
The club secretary, although a 'good egg', constantly fails to send the welcome pack to new members
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