Election 2019, Week 1

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Yes, yes, you've made a point about terminology, but you have assumed too much and you have taken this much too far. You need to calm yourself.

The Conservatives have in fact indicated that they are now in a position to bring down the national debt, which is what I was referring to. I've already explained why the national debt is so high.

That statement is so vague as to be almost meaningless...

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

I’m not being pedantic for the sake of it.

Granted, that's usually Hugh's job but you're very good at it too.

---------- Post added at 19:01 ---------- Previous post was at 18:58 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

That statement is so vague as to be almost meaningless...

if that came out of a politicians mouth, it would be taken almost refreshingly Lucid, compared to some of the drivel the Long-Baily, Nandy and their ilk come out with.

Originally Posted by Pierre

Granted, that's usually Hugh's job but you're very good at it too.

---------- Post added at 19:01 ---------- Previous post was at 18:58 ----------



if that came out of a politicians mouth, it would be taken almost refreshingly Lucid, compared to some of the drivel the Long-Baily, Nandy and their ilk come out with.

You say "pedantic", I say "tom-ay-toe"...

Anyhoo...

https://www.icmunlimited.com/our-wor...election-2019/

Headline voting intention figures:

Con: 38%

Lab: 31%

Lib Dem: 15%

Brexit Party: 9%

Green: 3%

SNP: 3%

UKIP: 1%

Plaid: 0%

Another party: 1%

Key points:

Nearly eight in ten of those who voted Tory at the 2017 general election say that they will vote Conservative again (77%), compared to just over seven in ten 2017 Labour voters who say that they will vote Labour again (73%). Just over one in ten of those who voted Conservative in 2017 now intend to vote for the Brexit Party (11%), a similar proportion to that of 2017 Labour voters who now intend to vote Liberal Democrat (12%).


The Conservatives seem to be doing a better job of capturing 2016 Leave voters than Labour are doing of capturing 2016 Remain voters. Just under six in ten Leave voters intend to vote Tory (57%), while less than half of Remain voters intend to vote Labour (45%). Two in ten Leave voters say that they will break for the Brexit Party (18%), compared to the nearly three in ten Remain voters who say they will vote Liberal Democrat (27%).


Conservatives appear to be performing impressively among ‘Conservative Remainers’ (those who voted Remain in 2016 and Conservative in 2017), with nearly seven in ten saying that they intend to stick with the Tories (67%).

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Yes, yes, you've made a point about terminology, but you have assumed too much and you have taken this much too far. You need to calm yourself.

The Conservatives have in fact indicated that they are now in a position to bring down the national debt, which is what I was referring to. I've already explained why the national debt is so high.

I'm perfectly calm. You are persistently using meaningless phrases and jargon (often incorrectly) implying that the Conservative Party are fiscally responsible and the Labour Party are not. This is in the complete absence of evidence.

We are running a budget deficit almost a decade after the coalition came to power. A defecit and the national debt at the highest it has ever been. It's an absolute parody of economic theory in action.

Austerity was simply an excuse to roll back the state. We are the fifth largest economy in the world yet we "can't afford" to do anything that private sector companies can extract profits from in the absence of genuine competition in the market. In the worst cases (TOCs) we privatise profits and subsidise the losses anyway.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by jfman

I'm perfectly calm. You are persistently using meaningless phrases and jargon (often incorrectly) implying that the Conservative Party are fiscally responsible and the Labour Party are not. This is in the complete absence of evidence.

We are running a budget deficit almost a decade after the coalition came to power. A defecit and the national debt at the highest it has ever been. It's an absolute parody of economic theory in action.

Austerity was simply an excuse to roll back the state. We are the fifth largest economy in the world yet we "can't afford" to do anything that private sector companies can extract profits from in the absence of genuine competition in the market. In the worst cases (TOCs) we privatise profits and subsidise the losses anyway.

And their main rationale for having another go is to undo the last ten years of their handiwork

[GrimUpNorth]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I see your pedantry has not gone away, jfman. Of course I understand the difference between the deficit and the national debt. 'Paid off' may not be the appropriate turn of phrase, but I'm sure that most people on here knew what I meant.

The deficit has now come down to manageable levels, which means we can start to actually reduce the debt rather than continue to increase it.

I don't know where you get the idea that I want to eliminate the role of the state. I have never said that. I believe in a mixed economy. However, the role of the state should be kept under control and should not be allowed to proliferate. There are things the state does well and there are things the privatised sector does better. We should use whichever method is more efficient.

So if you only spend a bit more than you earn year after year that's ok. Is that what you're saying?

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by GrimUpNorth

So if you only spend a bit more than you earn year after year that's ok. Is that what you're saying?

Continuing to run a huge deficit, when the spending isn't needed or justified, just stores up problems for when you do need it, ie downturn in economy.

[GrimUpNorth]

Originally Posted by nomadking

Continuing to run a huge deficit, when the spending isn't needed or justified, just stores up problems for when you do need it, ie downturn in economy.

So you too agree it's OK to keep spending more than you've got coming in.

[jfman]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50296672

More Conservative failure. Who is the economy being run for? “Hard working people” or rogue landlords?

---------- Post added at 06:15 ---------- Previous post was at 06:07 ----------

Originally Posted by GrimUpNorth

So you too agree it's OK to keep spending more than you've got coming in.

Some users are ignoring that Government budgets don’t work like household budgets. To simplify them to that level is a disingenuous way to justify rolling back the state.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The Conservatives have in fact indicated that they are now in a position to bring down the national debt, which is what I was referring to. I've already explained why the national debt is so high.

National debt is rising and the Conservatives are making spending commitments to try and win the election. Add in all the wasted money on Brexit including the melted down 50p coins and you start to understand that they're no longer the steady pair of hands they once were.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

National debt is rising and the Conservatives are making spending commitments to try and win the election. Add in all the wasted money on Brexit including the melted down 50p coins and you start to understand that they're no longer the steady pair of hands they once were.

Don't worry l am sure that mythical magic money tree they often point at other political parties will come out conveniently during this election for their own electoral convenience.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by denphone

Don't worry l am sure that mythical magic money tree they often point at other political parties will come out conveniently during this election for their own electoral convenience.

Now now, a fiscally responsible Conservative Government would never do such a thing.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

I'm perfectly calm. You are persistently using meaningless phrases and jargon (often incorrectly) implying that the Conservative Party are fiscally responsible and the Labour Party are not. This is in the complete absence of evidence.

We are running a budget deficit almost a decade after the coalition came to power. A defecit and the national debt at the highest it has ever been. It's an absolute parody of economic theory in action.

Austerity was simply an excuse to roll back the state. We are the fifth largest economy in the world yet we "can't afford" to do anything that private sector companies can extract profits from in the absence of genuine competition in the market. In the worst cases (TOCs) we privatise profits and subsidise the losses anyway.

What complete and utter nonsence, jfman. You really do enjoy trying to prove that black is white, don't you?

Here's a nice, easy to read report which shows your comments for the mistruths they are.

https://www.ft.com/content/928f7a7c-...d-04f350474d62

The UK government’s borrowing hit a 17-year low during the past financial year, according to preliminary figures published by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday. The government spent £24.7bn more than it received between April 2018 and March 2019, down from £41.8bn during the 2017-18 financial year. It was the lowest annual borrowing since 2001-02. The government has been trying to reduce the public sector shortfall since it reached close to a tenth of national income in 2010.

Tax revenues from high-earning City workers collapsed after the 2008 financial crisis while spending on stimulus measures and benefits increased. Borrowing has recently fallen faster than predicted by the Office for Budget Responsibility, the UK’s fiscal watchdog, thanks to rapid growth in tax receipts. Despite sluggish overall growth, stable employment and an increase in wages has helped support both income tax revenues and value added tax receipts, said John Hawksworth, chief economist at advisory firm PwC. “Economic growth has therefore been relatively ‘tax-rich’ over the past year, which has played a key role in bringing the budget deficit down to more sustainable levels,” he said.

Income and value added tax receipts rose 5.8 per cent and 5.6 per cent respectively during the financial year compared with the previous 12 months, while revenue from capital gains tax was 18.6 per cent higher. However, an increase in borrowing during the month of March itself compared with the previous year meant that full-year borrowing was above the £22.8bn predicted by the OBR at the Spring Statement last month.

In their monthly commentary on the figures, the OBR said: “The figures typically take some months to settle down and revisions can be significant.” Borrowing has often been lowered by £3bn in subsequent estimates. Recommended Tax evasion and avoidance UK steps up probe of tax ‘underpayment' by US groups “The year-over-year increase in public borrowing is not a sign that the economy has shifted down a gear,” said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, a consultancy. “The jump in borrowing compared to the previous March entirely reflected a £1.8bn increase in central government net investment, which is volatile and will boost the economy.”

The ONS said there were “notable” increases in government spending on goods and services during March as well as higher capital spending on infrastructure. Government debt fell for the second consecutive year as a percentage of national income during the past financial year, from 84.6 per cent of gross domestic product to 83.1 per cent. “The historically high deficits since 2008 mean that government debt is almost 50 per cent of national income higher than it was before the financial crisis, and will remain significantly above those levels for the foreseeable future,” said Thomas Pope, research economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

Doesn't sound like mismanagement of the economy to me.

[ianch99]

Interesting developments in NI:

SDLP will not contest general election in three seats

Sinn Féin won't stand in three Westminster seats

---------- Post added at 12:24 ---------- Previous post was at 10:55 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

What complete and utter nonsence, jfman. You really do enjoy trying to prove that black is white, don't you?

Here's a nice, easy to read report which shows your comments for the mistruths they are.

https://www.ft.com/content/928f7a7c-...d-04f350474d62

The UK government’s borrowing hit a 17-year low during the past financial year, according to preliminary figures published by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday. The government spent £24.7bn more than it received between April 2018 and March 2019, down from £41.8bn during the 2017-18 financial year. It was the lowest annual borrowing since 2001-02. The government has been trying to reduce the public sector shortfall since it reached close to a tenth of national income in 2010.

Tax revenues from high-earning City workers collapsed after the 2008 financial crisis while spending on stimulus measures and benefits increased. Borrowing has recently fallen faster than predicted by the Office for Budget Responsibility, the UK’s fiscal watchdog, thanks to rapid growth in tax receipts. Despite sluggish overall growth, stable employment and an increase in wages has helped support both income tax revenues and value added tax receipts, said John Hawksworth, chief economist at advisory firm PwC. “Economic growth has therefore been relatively ‘tax-rich’ over the past year, which has played a key role in bringing the budget deficit down to more sustainable levels,” he said.

Income and value added tax receipts rose 5.8 per cent and 5.6 per cent respectively during the financial year compared with the previous 12 months, while revenue from capital gains tax was 18.6 per cent higher. However, an increase in borrowing during the month of March itself compared with the previous year meant that full-year borrowing was above the £22.8bn predicted by the OBR at the Spring Statement last month.

In their monthly commentary on the figures, the OBR said: “The figures typically take some months to settle down and revisions can be significant.” Borrowing has often been lowered by £3bn in subsequent estimates. Recommended Tax evasion and avoidance UK steps up probe of tax ‘underpayment' by US groups “The year-over-year increase in public borrowing is not a sign that the economy has shifted down a gear,” said Samuel Tombs, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, a consultancy. “The jump in borrowing compared to the previous March entirely reflected a £1.8bn increase in central government net investment, which is volatile and will boost the economy.”

The ONS said there were “notable” increases in government spending on goods and services during March as well as higher capital spending on infrastructure. Government debt fell for the second consecutive year as a percentage of national income during the past financial year, from 84.6 per cent of gross domestic product to 83.1 per cent. “The historically high deficits since 2008 mean that government debt is almost 50 per cent of national income higher than it was before the financial crisis, and will remain significantly above those levels for the foreseeable future,” said Thomas Pope, research economist at the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

Doesn't sound like mismanagement of the economy to me.

You have a very simplistic view of economic history and who is responsible for what. Here is a very interesting article disproving the myth that Labour is responsible for austerity:

Can Labour be blamed for the economic crisis?

Conclusion

On a personal note, I’ve found it quite difficult how it has become accepted the conventional wisdom that somehow Labour economic mismanagement was responsible for the great recession. It is a bit worrying how the banks have got off very lightly with the blame rather disingenuously put onto this vague idea of Labour economic mismanagement.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Interesting developments in NI:

SDLP will not contest general election in three seats

Sinn Féin won't stand in three Westminster seats

---------- Post added at 12:24 ---------- Previous post was at 10:55 ----------



You have a very simplistic view of economic history and who is responsible for what. Here is a very interesting article disproving the myth that Labour is responsible for austerity:

Can Labour be blamed for the economic crisis?

He should stick to oiling bike chains.