UK & EU Agree Post-Brexit Trade Deal

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

It is well known that when you remove restrictions and reduce taxes for business, entrepreneurs respond. It is not possible to forecast how they will respond in most cases but it is possible to determine the overall likely benefit. With something big like this, and with the additional incentives Boris would put in place, the benefits could be huge.

We will be trading with more countries, not less, and our trade with the EU will remain largely the same. So the absence of the 'science' to prove the point is on your side, old chap.

The economic forecasts are heavily weighted towards the benefits we would lose, not the benefits we would gain, so these are very skewed forecasts.

---------- Post added at 08:30 ---------- Previous post was at 08:29 ----------



Polling or trolling?

It's not "well known" if you reduce taxes on business entrepreneurs respond. If this was true why haven't taxation rates reduced to zero? If they reduced to zero, where does public service funding come from? Personal tax. Who is worse off? Individuals while multinationals hive off their profits to other countries anyway.

It's an economic theory speculative at best to shift the tax burden from the extremely well off, who take income as capital gains and dividends, to the poor who pay under PAYE.

Our trade with the EU will remain largely the same? Totally contradicts your first point. By adding tariffs and paperwork surely entrepreneurs will respond negatively?

Unless of course you are making it all up as you go along.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

It's not "well known" if you reduce taxes on business entrepreneurs respond. If this was true why haven't taxation rates reduced to zero? If they reduced to zero, where does public service funding come from? Personal tax. Who is worse off? Individuals while multinationals hive off their profits to other countries anyway.

It's an economic theory speculative at best to shift the tax burden from the extremely well off, who take income as capital gains and dividends, to the poor who pay under PAYE.

Our trade with the EU will remain largely the same? Totally contradicts your first point. By adding tariffs and paperwork surely entrepreneurs will respond negatively?

Unless of course you are making it all up as you go along.

Don't be ridiculous, jfman. As one who claims to be an expert in economics, this is pretty poor form.

On tax. If tax reduced to zero, you would not gain any revenue. Why do you always resort to extreme views like this? You also wouldn't get any revenue if you increased it to 100% because there would be no incentive to work. Obviously.

Income tax cuts reduce the amount individuals and families pay on wages earned. When people can take home more of their pay, consumer spending increases. This personal consumption drives almost 70% of the economy because it’s one of the four components of gross domestic product.

Capital gains tax cuts reduce taxes on sales of assets. That gives more money to investors. They put more money into companies, through stock purchases, helping them grow. It also drives up the prices of housing and other real estate, oil, gold, and other assets.

Business tax cuts reduce taxes on profit. These give more money to companies to invest and hire workers.

As for the EU, the impact of tariffs works both ways, and you are forgetting about our trade with the rest of the world increasing.

Could do better, jfman.

[Dave42]

EU has agreed Brexit delay until January 2020

https://news.sky.com/story/eu-has-ag...-tusk-11847480

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Britain will not be poorer. More lies from Project Fear, stoked by the economic forecasts that give attention only to the benefits we will lose.

What about those we will gain? You can't get your head around that, can you?

The British Government's forecasts all include these benefits but they're thoroughly outweighed by the reduced trade with the EU. As previously pointed out.

Moving on, good see the EU has agreed to Boris's request to postpone Brexit to 31 January 2020 as Dave has posted.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The unions don't want Ellesmere Port to close. Its owners don't want it to close.
No deal saves no money, it just adds uncertainty and reduces jobs.

One of the conditions the owners have placed on it being kept open, is certain negotiations with the trade unions. I don't know if, or how any negotiations have gone.

There is still the final EU negotiations yet to come, so any "deal" or "no deal" is not yet relevant.

Worldwide car production is being reduced, so outside of Brexit there are problems, temporary shutdowns, and closures.

If the EU were truly interested in a "level playing field", they would stop propping up other EU countries. EG Poland gets 9bn/year, and that's on top of the over £1bn the country gets from the UK, from Poles living here.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Don't be ridiculous, jfman. As one who claims to be an expert in economics, this is pretty poor form.

On tax. If tax reduced to zero, you would not gain any revenue. Why do you always resort to extreme views like this? You also wouldn't get any revenue if you increased it to 100% because there would be no incentive to work. Obviously.

Income tax cuts reduce the amount individuals and families pay on wages earned. When people can take home more of their pay, consumer spending increases. This personal consumption drives almost 70% of the economy because it’s one of the four components of gross domestic product.

Capital gains tax cuts reduce taxes on sales of assets. That gives more money to investors. They put more money into companies, through stock purchases, helping them grow. It also drives up the prices of housing and other real estate, oil, gold, and other assets.

Business tax cuts reduce taxes on profit. These give more money to companies to invest and hire workers.

As for the EU, the impact of tariffs works both ways, and you are forgetting about our trade with the rest of the world increasing.

Could do better, jfman.

One of your better contributions, OB.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Don't be ridiculous, jfman. As one who claims to be an expert in economics, this is pretty poor form.

On tax. If tax reduced to zero, you would not gain any revenue. Why do you always resort to extreme views like this? You also wouldn't get any revenue if you increased it to 100% because there would be no incentive to work. Obviously.

Income tax cuts reduce the amount individuals and families pay on wages earned. When people can take home more of their pay, consumer spending increases. This personal consumption drives almost 70% of the economy because it’s one of the four components of gross domestic product.

Capital gains tax cuts reduce taxes on sales of assets. That gives more money to investors. They put more money into companies, through stock purchases, helping them grow. It also drives up the prices of housing and other real estate, oil, gold, and other assets.

Business tax cuts reduce taxes on profit. These give more money to companies to invest and hire workers.

As for the EU, the impact of tariffs works both ways, and you are forgetting about our trade with the rest of the world increasing.

Could do better, jfman.

I'm applying your flawed theory to the extreme. Tell me what part of reducing taxes on businesses I failed to apply in my example?

I didn't forget the hypothesised increased trade with the rest of the world. You specifically, in the absence of any evidence at all, claimed trade with the EU remains much the same. Despite your contradictory view that taxes and red tape should be reduced on businesses to promote entrepreneurs. Both cannot be true.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Ask the Chancellor of the Exchequer what happens to government income when you reduce high levels of taxation.

You posited the proposition, you provide the proof - Sajid and I aren’t on the same forum...

However, to counterpoint your proposition

https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...ment-imf-finds

The Trump administration’s tax cuts have had little direct impact on business investment decisions, according to an analysis by the International Monetary Fund, which runs contrary to the White House’s portrayal of lower corporate rates as a boon for capital spending.

Almost all growth in business investment since 2017 can be attributed to private-sector expectations that strong sales growth will continue — in part because of the personal income tax cuts that boosted demand — rather than the tax incentive for companies, IMF economists Emanuel Kopp, Daniel Leigh and Suchanan Tambunlertchai said in a blog post Thursday. They cited the findings of their recent study, which was also incorporated into the institution’s latest report on the U.S. economy in June.

Personal tax cuts for the lower paid boost business, as these people spend it on consumables (mainly), whilst Corporate tax cuts recently have been used for share buy-back or to increase reserves, rather than investment in the business.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The British Government's forecasts all include these benefits but they're thoroughly outweighed by the reduced trade with the EU. As previously pointed out.

Moving on, good see the EU has agreed to Boris's request to postpone Brexit to 31 January 2020 as Dave has posted.

As previously pointed out, only certain benefits of leaving the EU have been taken into account - the obvious ones, such as reduction in contributions. The economists have absolutely no idea how business will respond to more flexible and understandable legislation and massive new trading opportunities. I understand the reasons for that, but these forecasts should have come with a health warning, because they are largely one-sided.

Not sure why you are cock-a-hoop about yet another postponement. Most people want to get Brexit done.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

As previously pointed out, only certain benefits of leaving the EU have been taken into account - the obvious ones, such as reduction in contributions. The economists have absolutely no idea how business will respond to more flexible and understandable legislation and massive new trading opportunities. I understand the reasons for that, but these forecasts should have come with a health warning, because they are largely one-sided.

Not sure why you are cock-a-hoop about yet another postponement. Most people want to get Brexit done.

The majority wanting to do something and it being in our economic best interests aren't one and the same thing. We aren't a direct democracy.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Don't be ridiculous, jfman. As one who claims to be an expert in economics, this is pretty poor form.

On tax. If tax reduced to zero, you would not gain any revenue. Why do you always resort to extreme views like this? You also wouldn't get any revenue if you increased it to 100% because there would be no incentive to work. Obviously.

Income tax cuts reduce the amount individuals and families pay on wages earned. When people can take home more of their pay, consumer spending increases. This personal consumption drives almost 70% of the economy because it’s one of the four components of gross domestic product.

Capital gains tax cuts reduce taxes on sales of assets. That gives more money to investors. They put more money into companies, through stock purchases, helping them grow. It also drives up the prices of housing and other real estate, oil, gold, and other assets.

Business tax cuts reduce taxes on profit. These give more money to companies to invest and hire workers.

As for the EU, the impact of tariffs works both ways, and you are forgetting about our trade with the rest of the world increasing.

Could do better, jfman.

it's all very well cutting income tax etc. But without positive consumer confidence in the economy money will be saved rather than spent. So the above is a naive interpretation.

The last data i saw (which i think was for the end of September 20190 showed that consumer confidence was at -12 (slightly recovering from the previous month of -14)

nowhere near the lowest score in the last recession however. BUT to add to this most sampled people believe the UK economy will go into recession within the next twelve months

People are jittery about their finances, and, in my opinion justifiably so.

[jfman]

Old Boy's economic analysis is just failed neo-liberal capitalism allowing profits to be siphoned off public services where competition cannot be created anyway.

So if BJ doesn’t win his vote tonight, he will have another one tomorrow?

Because Conservatives didn’t get enough of a majority in the 2017 General Election, they want to have another General Election.

But we can’t have another Referendum, because "the people have spoken!".

Strange, the people "spoke" in 2015 and said who they wanted to run the country for the next five years, but that didn’t stop the Conservatives holding another one in 2017 and now one in 2019.

Seems legit...

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Hugh

So if BJ doesn’t win his vote tonight, he will have another one tomorrow?

Because Conservatives didn’t get enough of a majority in the 2017 General Election, they want to have another General Election.

But we can’t have another Referendum, because "the people have spoken!".

Strange, the people "spoke" in 2015 and said who they wanted to run the country for the next five years, but that didn’t stop the Conservatives holding another one in 2017 and now one in 2019.

Seems legit...

Just keep on holding an election until you get the right result, it would appear.

---------- Post added at 18:42 ---------- Previous post was at 18:38 ----------

Originally Posted by nomadking

One of the conditions the owners have placed on it being kept open, is certain negotiations with the trade unions. I don't know if, or how any negotiations have gone.

There is still the final EU negotiations yet to come, so any "deal" or "no deal" is not yet relevant.

Worldwide car production is being reduced, so outside of Brexit there are problems, temporary shutdowns, and closures.

If the EU were truly interested in a "level playing field", they would stop propping up other EU countries. EG Poland gets 9bn/year, and that's on top of the over £1bn the country gets from the UK, from Poles living here.

Unions aren't an issue, it'a whether Vauxhall can export its cars and import its components in a timely and therefore cost-effective manner.

[jfman]

The EU counties being “propped up” are customers for all of the products they buy from other EU countries.

Given how strongly the English feel I’m surprised they are so keen to “prop up” Scotland and Northern Ireland.