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Will Scotland Leave the UK?
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Old 14-01-2020, 22:43   #3016
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Nothing will happen until after the Scottish elections anyway.

Problem is with U.K. election the collapse of Labour and the usual distain for the Tory’s leaves Scotland, and Scottish socialists with little to choose from.

By all accounts ( I don’t live there so don’t know) the SNP aren’t doing a great job, and the Scottish elections would be a good opportunity to give them a bloody nose. If they do badly the issue of a referendum may dissipate.
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Old 15-01-2020, 08:05   #3017
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Pierre View Post
Nothing will happen until after the Scottish elections anyway.

Problem is with U.K. election the collapse of Labour and the usual distain for the Tory’s leaves Scotland, and Scottish socialists with little to choose from.

By all accounts ( I don’t live there so don’t know) the SNP aren’t doing a great job, and the Scottish elections would be a good opportunity to give them a bloody nose. If they do badly the issue of a referendum may dissipate.
SNP and Green only need to lose 5 seats between them in order for the referendum majority to disappear.

That is of course unless Scottish Labour totally fails to learn any lessons from the UK party’s disastrous equivocation over Brexit and starts going lukewarm in its opposition to Scottish independence, or at least the possibility of a referendum (some in the party here are already suggesting this). It’s quite possible that after 2021 only the Tories and the Lib Dems will be explicitly against another referendum. If Scottish Labour remains neutral then, barring a massive collapse in the SNP vote, there will be an endless procession of set-piece votes in Holyrood between 2021 and 2025.
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Old 15-01-2020, 11:55   #3018
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

i hope Labour get a half decent leader and get them on track again and take some seats from the SNP, as long as they do not help them to get Indy2"
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Old 15-01-2020, 17:41   #3019
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Isn't it awful that we have to wish success to Labour just keep Scotland in the UK? Don't get me wrong, I don't wish to have the UK broken up; I do wish a pox on the SNP and if the Scots fall for the SNP's nonsense then, as I've alreaday said "sod them".

On the other hand if thousand come streaming south while they can, we may have a solution to various labour shortages in GB!
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Old 15-01-2020, 20:11   #3020
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

If Scotland did leave the UK can you still call it the UK...
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Old 15-01-2020, 21:03   #3021
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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If Scotland did leave the UK can you still call it the UK...
Technically yes, because the word “United” was added in 1801 on the union of Great Britain and Ireland. That is the union our nation’s long-form title refers to. On the union of England and Scotland the kingdoms became a unitary entity called The Kingdom of Great Britain. So if Scotland left the UK it would be Great Britain that would cease to exist politically, not the United Kingdom. We would be left with a United Kingdom of England* and Northern Ireland.

*Wales is a principality annexed to England - it’s a nation culturally and ethnically but not politically, hence it doesn’t appear in the flag or the name.
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Old 15-01-2020, 21:17   #3022
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Seems to me that, if they secede, it would be a whole load of costly hassle to take the saltire out of the Union Flag. Plus it would seriously hack the SNP off if we left it there.
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Old 15-01-2020, 21:36   #3023
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Sephiroth View Post
Seems to me that, if they secede, it would be a whole load of costly hassle to take the saltire out of the Union Flag. Plus it would seriously hack the SNP off if we left it there.
The original union flag, minus St Patrick’s saltire, was created on the orders of the (Scottish) King James, when he became king of England, so he could fly a common flag on all his naval vessels, regardless of whether they were English or Scottish. It predates the creation of the Kingdom of Great Britain and the union of the parliaments by 101 years. If an independent Scotland continued to be a constitutional monarchy then the union flag would continue to fly over Buckingham Palace (except when she’s actually there of course). Its use as the national flag would be politically difficult even within England. It’s hard to see English public opinion being positive towards a yes to independence in Scotland. It would look like an insult.

I suspect the opportunity would be demanded to create a new flag that visibly incorporated Wales in some way.
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Old 15-01-2020, 22:06   #3024
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

I’m confident, if push did come to shove, and if there was another referendum in 2022 - 2024. They would still stay in the U.K.

I also think the SNP are playing a strange game. At the moment they can ride it all and still seem somewhat relevant . But if there was another referendum, and they lost. What is the point of them?

Be careful what you wish for.
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Old 15-01-2020, 22:23   #3025
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Pierre View Post
I’m confident, if push did come to shove, and if there was another referendum in 2022 - 2024. They would still stay in the U.K.

I also think the SNP are playing a strange game. At the moment they can ride it all and still seem somewhat relevant . But if there was another referendum, and they lost. What is the point of them?

Be careful what you wish for.
This is all party management. The proper headbangers in her party are as convinced they’d win indyref2 as they were about winning the first one. Their enthusiasm is undimmed by the minor setback of 2014 which as far as they’re concerned is entirely down to Westminster lies that they now know about and will effectively counter next time.

Sturgeon on the other hand understands the risks of going too soon. Her true position is the one she expressed in 2015 - there needs to be sustained poll support above 60% for a second referendum to be worth the risk.

She needs to sound like a zealot in public to avoid getting defenestrated by said headbangers, who joined the party in droves at the end of 2014, while at the same time ensuring she doesn’t actually get a referendum until it looks winnable. To be fair to her she is right where she wants to be at the moment, with her theatrical demands being rebuffed by a posh English Tory. She’s hoping that nationalistic outrage will now shift the polls in her favour.
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Old 18-03-2020, 21:52   #3026
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

And now the SNP has announced it isn’t going to hold the referendum its already been told it can’t have. A good day to bury bad news, it seems.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-51944044
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Old 18-03-2020, 23:42   #3027
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Could they hold one regardless, or hold an informal unofficial referendum and, if they win, use this to pressurise the PM?
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Old 19-03-2020, 08:28   #3028
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Could they hold one regardless, or hold an informal unofficial referendum and, if they win, use this to pressurise the PM?
They have the power to hold a consultation on public opinion on any issue, but it wouldn’t have any legitimacy, especially when compared to the mechanisms that were put in place for 2014. Without an act of Parliament behind it (the actual Parliament that is) there is no obligation on anyone to enact any constitutional changes off the back of it. A referendum without status offers the “no” campaign the obvious strategy of non cooperation, leading to a low turnout but a large yes majority, leading to the British government’s refusal to negotiate, leading to extremists protesting on the streets and ultimately people getting arrested.

I believe the UK gov would be more measured than the Spanish (we shouldn’t forget the psychological difference that exists in some way or other in every country in Western Europe - all of them have been under dictatorships in living memory), but nonetheless the recent experience of Catalan separatists weighs heavily on the Nats here. They see Catalonia as a parallel with Scotland, hence all the Catalan flags you see during the regular zombie shuffles they hold in Glasgow. They know a second referendum really would be the last for a very long time and the ones with brains (and there are some) know therefore that they can’t afford to do anything to risk messing it up.

Coronavirus is an absolute gift to Nicola Sturgeon in this sense. She has been struggling to contain the pressure from the ones without brains (and there are many) to hold a second referendum as soon as possible. She knows this is too risky and prefers to wait, but has found it hard to steer a course that doesn’t risk her getting defenestrated. Her rhetoric has tended only to inflame the berserkers, many of whom seem actually to have believed the UK government would have caved in and granted them a referendum before the end of the year (or failing that, that the SNP would hold one anyway). Of course this was never going to happen, and Sturgeon has simply stored up a problem for herself come year end when no Section 30 Order is forthcoming. Except of course they now have all the pretext they need to simply bury the issue.

There is a Scottish Parliament election next year. Most people in Scotland will now accept that the question of a referendum is put to bed at the very least until that new parliament convenes.
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Old 19-03-2020, 08:53   #3029
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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And now the SNP has announced it isn’t going to hold the referendum its already been told it can’t have. A good day to bury bad news, it seems.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotla...itics-51944044
In fairness it's not like if they announced it last week, or next week, it'd be any further up the running order. The news cycle is full of Coronavirus and the Scottish Government are taking a reasonable action at a reasonable time.
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Old 19-03-2020, 09:14   #3030
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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In fairness it's not like if they announced it last week, or next week, it'd be any further up the running order. The news cycle is full of Coronavirus and the Scottish Government are taking a reasonable action at a reasonable time.
What? If you're referring to to their "postponement" of their desired referendum, then there's only arrogance in their decision and your defence of them is a puzzle.
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