Brexit (Old)

Originally Posted by Pierre

I think it’s all very intriguing.

The deal will be voted down, of that I am in no doubt.

We are leaving in March, that is enshrined in law, which was voted for by parliament in parliament.

But now everyone ( all politicians) are saying that parliament will not accept leaving with no deal.

So it's a great position our parliament ( and that’s everyone, not just the government) have got themselves into.

They were full of the “ we respect the result of the referendum “, “ we will implement the result” etc.

But now it seems no one is so sure,” we respect the result, to a point but now actually we can’t”

Well the specific version of the result that entails no deal. The alternatives will be this deal again (or a slight variation of it), EEA 'for now', a delay to Article 50. Outright cancelling the result will only be considered via another referendum.

[jfman]

Pierre, I agree with this post you have made. It’s a genuinely intriguing situation.

I think how our Parliamentarians get out of it (or rather, if they don’t) is going to be a politically defining moment for a generation. Like the Miners strike crushed communities.

---------- Post added at 22:44 ---------- Previous post was at 22:33 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

Well the specific version of the result that entails no deal. The alternatives will be this deal again (or a slight variation of it), EEA 'for now', a delay to Article 50. Outright cancelling the result will only be considered via another referendum.

That and, if there’s Parliamentary will, the timescale to withdraw or amend the EU Withdrawal Act can be severely reduced. Common practice and procedures will be out the window.

[1andrew1]

Will also be interesting to see the position that JC takes if he does participate in a debate with Theresa May.

[Dave42]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Will also be interesting to see the position that JC takes if he does participate in a debate with Theresa May.

if they happen as TM wants bbc and JC wants itv and they totally pointless as only mps are voting on deal and it gonna get defeated

and one is a remainer pretending to be a leaver and other is a leaver pretending to be a remainer

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Dave42

and one is a remainer pretending to be a leaver and other is a leaver pretending to be a remainer

That sums up the madness quite nicely!

[Gavin78]

Originally Posted by jfman

I’m not leaving the conversation because you ask. Brexit is collapsing and I literally cannot was wait to read all of the responses.

I never asked you to leave think you read my comments the wrong way

[jfman]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Will also be interesting to see the position that JC takes if he does participate in a debate with Theresa May.

That’s easy.

Brexit is a shambles. A Conservative Party spat now playing out as perhaps the greatest division of the British public of our times.

The deal proposed by the Prime Minister satisfies no-one. Mr Corbyn will suggest the Government resign, and make way for negotiations led by the Labour Party. The Prime Minister will refuse. Mr Corbyn will point out she has no Parliamentary mandate for her deal. The Prime Minister will stand firm.

When the deal is voted down Mr Corbyn will stress that with no opportunity to force a general election, Article 50 must be extended, Britain did not vote for a disorderly exit from the European Union. The Prime Minister will reluctantly concede either a) People’s Vote or b) a general election.

Corbyn gets to say he would have respected the 2016 result except the preparations (or lack of) gave him no choice. Britain for the many, not the few, and he couldn’t accept no deal which made us poorer after years of austerity.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by jfman

That’s easy.

Brexit is a shambles. A Conservative Party spat now playing out as perhaps the greatest division of the British public of our times.

The deal proposed by the Prime Minister satisfies no-one. Mr Corbyn will suggest the Government resign, and make way for negotiations led by the Labour Party. The Prime Minister will refuse. Mr Corbyn will point out she has no Parliamentary mandate for her deal. The Prime Minister will stand firm.

When the deal is voted down Mr Corbyn will stress that with no opportunity to force a general election, Article 50 must be extended, Britain did not vote for a disorderly exit from the European Union. The Prime Minister will reluctantly concede either a) People’s Vote or b) a general election.

Corbyn gets to say he would have respected the 2016 result except the preparations (or lack of) gave him no choice. Britain for the many, not the few, and he couldn’t accept no deal which made us poorer after years of austerity.

I like your posts. Refreshing on this forum ...

I have mentioned a few times that JC is an ardent Leaver who was seriously conflicted when asked to front the Remain campaign. I guess he thought he had played his cards just right when Leave crept over the line but he has a serious problem: his power base, who he claims to represent, are ardent Remainers.

As time has gone on, Labour are creeping to a People's Vote position and so JC is slowly being forced to confront his party's reality.

Corbyn faces clash with Labour members over second EU referendum

As the party gathers in Liverpool, is Corbyn’s promise to empower members coming back to haunt him?

It may meet his personal "Road to Damascus" moment in time to save the day or he may, again, spin out his obfuscation to get over the time. Time will tell .

There are two things we can all agree on:

1. make it stop
2. stop telling everyone "I know what i voted for"

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by jfman

If people are denying that these forecasts are reasonable, or accusing them of being biased, then that is essentially the an accusation that they are lies. As the words of the head of Central Banks, or Finance Ministers, can provoke market reaction then the accusation they would knowingly talk down the economy despite evidence otherwise is essentially sabotage.

They are not forecasts of any sort. Nothing can really be forecast 15 years into the future. Even then the "forecasts" say "could", not "will".

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

I’m not leaving the conversation because you ask. Brexit is collapsing and I literally cannot was wait to read all of the responses.

It's certainly not Brexit that is collapsing - only the Withdrawal Agreement!

---------- Post added at 11:01 ---------- Previous post was at 10:37 ----------

Originally Posted by nomadking

They are not forecasts of any sort. Nothing can really be forecast 15 years into the future. Even then the "forecasts" say "could", not "will".

I think some are seizing on these forecasts as being proof of their unshakable belief that Brexit will be a disaster. It won't be, of course, just as the world didn't come to an end immediately after the vote to leave was announced.

The remainers like to describe the whole process as a shambles, and don't they like to go on, and on, and on about this and their predicted implosion of the world as we know it?

Despite everything the 'remoaners' are saying, and I use that term to distinguish normal remainers from those who just won't accept the democratic result of the referendum, we now have the best withdrawal agreement that can be negotiated with the EU. Remoaners said we would end up paying the EU hundreds of billions of pounds to leave, we settled at £39bn. They said TM would never get to Phase Ii of the negotiating process. Then they said we would never get a deal. They have been wrong on all counts to date and yet they still, with gallons of false confidence, proclaim this as a disaster and the post Brexit world as a catastrophe for 'little' Britain. It's all tosh.

We are now at a situation where we have three pretty good choices. We accept the imperfect Withdrawal Agreement on the basis that this is the bridge we cross to get out of the EU, preserving frictionless trade with no tariffs in the meantime. Or we can take the Norway route as that bridge instead of the Withdrawal Agreement, but which would mean that free movement of people would have to continue during that period. Or we can just make a clean break and negotiate our trade deal when we are out.

All this emotion and nonsense about Brexit is just hot air. The economic forecasts are all based on the downsides, the worst case scenarios quoted out of context and practically no attention is being paid to the upsides of better deals and cheaper goods from the rest of the world.

Those watching all this in bewilderment should be reassured that we will get through this despite the prophets of doom, and if there is some disruption, it will be minor and short lived. A small price to pay to realise our dreams for a brighter future.

And just a final word to the remoaners. We are not 'little' Britain. We are Great Britain, and if you want proof, check your atlas.

[jfman]

That had me cringing at the end there. Better deals and upsides are entirely speculative; indeed we were told the deal with the EU would be easy, they need us to buy German cars, etc.

Separately, and far more interestingly, are the proposed amendments to the vote on the deal. Clear efforts from Parliament to rule out “no deal” as an option going forward.

[Carth]

well said OB

*stands up and applauds*

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

That had me cringing at the end there. Better deals and upsides are entirely speculative; indeed we were told the deal with the EU would be easy, they need us to buy German cars, etc.

Separately, and far more interestingly, are the proposed amendments to the vote on the deal. Clear efforts from Parliament to rule out “no deal” as an option going forward.

Except, of course, that the EU will not accept any further amendment. Anyway, carry on wishing.

As far as speculation goes, I think the economic forecasts are pretty speculative in themselves!

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Except, of course, that the EU will not accept any further amendment. Anyway, carry on wishing.

As far as speculation goes, I think the economic forecasts are pretty speculative in themselves!

The EU don’t have to accept further negotiations (of course, they could change their minds if there’s an extension, or a unilateral withdrawal of Article 50) to force a 2nd referendum on the basis of deal/remain.

We are heading for a constitutional crisis, ironically due to Parliamentary sovereignty.

This crisis is required to force the conditions to remain.

Originally Posted by jfman

This crisis is required to force the conditions to remain.

Nope - we leave on WTO terms.

Democracy must ALWAYS prevail - no stupid second referendums to over turn the first because YOU lost your preference!!!

---------- Post added at 11:54 ---------- Previous post was at 11:52 ----------

Originally Posted by nomadking

They are not forecasts of any sort. Nothing can really be forecast 15 years into the future. Even then the "forecasts" say "could", not "will".

Exactly and as I have said for the 3rd time which jfman is being obtuse on, the treasury routinely gets it's annual forcasts wrong, so how the feck can they predict the next 15 years - it's just pure fiction by pathetic Remainers in government with a corrupted ambition to stay in the corrupted union!