Brexit

Originally Posted by Angua

I have a dream that JohnsonB as PM will see what an impossibility Brexit is at the moment and just say stuff this and revoke Article 50.

Seems more of a nightmare than a dream

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Paul M

Seems more of a nightmare than a dream

A true nightmare to everyone would be a November general election in which Jezza gets in. A no-deal substantially increases the chances of this happening.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

A true nightmare to everyone would be a November general election in which Jezza gets in. A no-deal substantially increases the chances of this happening.

That would seem to me to be a re-affirmation of the nation’s decision to leave the EU. I can’t see a GE happening in time to stop Brexit.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

That would seem to me to be a re-affirmation of the nation’s decision to leave the EU. I can’t see a GE happening in time to stop Brexit.

If the ERG accepts the deal on the table or a window-dressed version of it from BoJo, then there won't be an election before Brexit. If they don't there will probably be one.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Angua

I have a dream that JohnsonB as PM will see what an impossibility Brexit is at the moment and just say stuff this and revoke Article 50.

The real nightmare would be if we remained in the EU.

Presumably, it has escaped you that the Eurozone is faring worse than the UK's economy at present, so to think we are going to be worse off when we leave is a fallacy.

Something else that might have escaped you is that under the existing rules, the UK is under an obligation to contribute over £200bn to any future eurozone bailout in the event of a crisis. That is a matter of when, not if. Furthermore, that is only the minimum end of the scale, and that sum could increase to over £400bn.

This is not Brexit's version of Project Fear - this is truly our liability as a member of the EU, even though we are not part of the Eurozone.

When you look at all this in the round, and the stifling bureaucracy it is burdening us with, it does make one wonder if those wedded to the idea of remaining in the EU actually understand all these downsides.I'd wager that the economic forecasters haven't taken that liability into account when assessing whether we would be better or worse off after Brexit.

I really think many remainers ars just worried about their European holidays!

---------- Post added at 17:30 ---------- Previous post was at 17:26 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

A true nightmare to everyone would be a November general election in which Jezza gets in. A no-deal substantially increases the chances of this happening.

Labour isn't exactly faring that well in the latest polls I've seen.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The real nightmare would be if we remained in the EU.

Presumably, it has escaped you that the Eurozone is faring worse than the UK's economy at present, so to think we are going to be worse off when we leave is a fallacy.

Something else that might have escaped you is that under the existing rules, the UK is under an obligation to contribute over £200bn to any future eurozone bailout in the event of a crisis. That is a matter of when, not if. Furthermore, that is only the minimum end of the scale, and that sum could increase to over £400bn.

This is not Brexit's version of Project Fear - this is truly our liability as a member of the EU, even though we are not part of the Eurozone.

When you look at all this in the round, and the stifling bureaucracy it is burdening us with, it does make one wonder if those wedded to the idea of remaining in the EU actually understand all these downsides.I'd wager that the economic forecasters haven't taken that liability into account when assessing whether we would be better or worse off after Brexit.

I really think many remainers ars just worried about their European holidays!

---------- Post added at 17:30 ---------- Previous post was at 17:26 ----------



Labour isn't exactly faring that well in the latest polls I've seen.

Old Boy, please desist from making stuff up. The UK won't be liable for any future Eurozone bailout.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi...endum-36456277

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Old Boy, please desist from making stuff up. The UK won't be liable for any future Eurozone bailout.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi...endum-36456277

Didn't make it up, mate.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...-clean-brexit/

Britain could face paying more than €200bn to the European Union in the event of a eurozone bail-out unless the UK leaves under a managed clean Brexit, according to leading City and business figures.

The warning comes from the Brexit Coalition, a new grouping that represents 29 diverse pro-Brexit campaigning organisations, including the Alliance of British Entrepreneurs, Artists for Brexit and Farmers for Britain as well as Labour Leave and Green Leaves.

In a letter sent this week to Conservative Party constituency chairmen and senior Tory officials, the Brexit Coalition urges members to support a new prime minister who is “committed unequivocally” to backing a clean WTO-based Brexit, one which would avoid having to pay such massive contingent liabilities to the EU.

Daniel Hodson, coalition president and former Liffe boss, says that under existing rules the UK Government is obligated to a contribution of around €207bn (£186bn) to any bail-out should the eurozone tip into financial crisis.

“Given the current dire straits in which the eurozone finds itself, a financial crisis is an increasingly likely scenario,” he says.

The UK is liable for at least this amount – a figure which could grow to as much as €441bn or even more – if the Brexit process becomes so drawn out that it overlaps with the next EU Multiannual Financial Framework.

Mr Hodson, who is also chairman of The City for Britain, adds: “These liabilities have not been discussed deeply enough in the Brexit debate. To avoid the scenario in which the UK would have to rescue EU banks despite not being a member of the eurozone, the UK needs to leave the EU and cut its contractual ties as soon as possible.”

The letter also raises two other areas of national importance which the pro-Brexit campaigners claim have been ignored by the national media but need greater scrutiny: defence and the fishing industry.

With regard to the UK’s defence, the campaigners claim the country risks losing permanent control of key areas of decision making over its armed forces and defence strategy.

They claim that the current EU proposal, recently adopted by the Government, effectively brings the UK under the influence of the EU’s new “Defence Union”, which could have the affect of “immediately eroding democratic UK accountability over aspects of defence finance, procurement and foreign policy”. It also fears that even intelligence architecture and procurement could fall under EU influence.

The third area of concern should the UK stay closely aligned with the EU, and not opt for a clean departure, is the continued overfishing of the UK’s territorial waters and the disastrous impact on the Scottish fishing industry.

A managed exit would help the Scottish fishing industry, and doing so could help cement the union. The coalition also proposes a “Brexit Kitemark” to all sitting MPs and parliamentary candidates regardless of party based on their commitment to a managed Brexit.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Didn't make it up, mate.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...-clean-brexit/

Sorry, it looks like the Brexit coalition made it up, not your good self. FullFact gives a good and thorough explanation.
The summary is

So it might be technically possible, if unlikely in practice, for the EU to bypass the dedicated Eurozone bailout fund and the all-EU fund—neither of which put British money at risk—and call upon the EU budget directly.

https://fullfact.org/europe/will-uk-...zone-bailouts/

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Didn't make it up, mate.

The third area of concern should the UK stay closely aligned with the EU, and not opt for a clean departure, is the continued overfishing of the UK’s territorial waters and the disastrous impact on the Scottish fishing industry.

A managed exit would help the Scottish fishing industry, and doing so could help cement the union. The coalition also proposes a “Brexit Kitemark” to all sitting MPs and parliamentary candidates regardless of party based on their commitment to a managed Brexit.

More lies, we sold our fishing quota rights of and the over fishing is the result of a scam perpetrated by some of the wealthiest families in the country

More than a quarter of the United Kingdom’s fishing quota is in the hands of a tiny group of the country’s wealthiest families, an Unearthed investigation has found.

Just five families on the Sunday Times Rich List hold or control 29% of the UK’s fishing quota.

The finding comes from a new Unearthed investigation that traced the owners of more than 95% of UK quota holdings – including, for the first time, those of Scotland, the UK’s biggest fishing nation.

It reveals that more than two-thirds of the UK’s fishing quota is controlled by just 25 businesses – and more than half of those are linked to one of the biggest criminal overfishing scams ever to reach the British courts.

Meanwhile, in England nearly 80% of fishing quota is held by foreign owners or domestic Rich List families, and more than half of Northern Ireland’s quota is hoarded onto a single trawler.

The news comes as the government is preparing to publish a new fisheries bill, which will set the legal foundations for the UK’s fishing industry after Brexit. But while the government is hoping it can net access to more fishing rights in the Brexit negotiations, it has said the new bill will not see any redistribution of the UK’s existing quota rights.

As Unearthed’s investigation reveals, this would leave the bulk of UK fishing rights in the hands of a small domestic elite and a handful of foreign multinationals.

Responding to Unearthed’s findings, shadow environment secretary Sue Hayman said ministers needed to take “urgent action to use the powers that they have domestically to redistribute fishing quota to deliver a fairer deal for smaller boats”.

“Fishing was the poster child of the Leave campaign and [environment secretary Michael] Gove has already broken promises he made to the industry to secure full control of our waters during the transition,” she continued. “With all the talk of ‘take back control’, ministers have the power to distribute UK quota now and put the smaller-scale fleet first. So why wasn’t it mentioned in their white paper?

Thanks to Greenpeace the truth is out there

The investigation found:

The five largest quota-holders control more than a third of UK fishing quota
Four of the top five belong to families on the Sunday Times Rich List
The fifth is a Dutch multinational whose UK subsidiary – North Atlantic Fishing Company – controls around a quarter of England’s fishing quota
Around half of England’s quota is ultimately owned by Dutch, Icelandic, or Spanish interests
More than half (13) of the top 25 quota holders have directors, shareholders, or vessel partners who were convicted of offences in Scotland’s £63m “black fish” scam – a huge, sophisticated fraud that saw trawlermen and fish processors working together to evade quota limits and land 170,000 tonnes of undeclared herring and mackerel
One of the flagships of the “Brexit flotilla” – which sailed up the Thames in 2016 to demand the UK’s exit from the EU – is among the UK’s 10 biggest quota-holders
Around 29% of UK fishing quota is directly controlled by Rich List families. Some of these families have investments in dozens of other fishing companies, meaning companies holding 37% of UK quota are wholly or partly owned by these Rich List families.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Old Boy, please desist from making stuff up. The UK won't be liable for any future Eurozone bailout.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politi...endum-36456277

The telegraph reported what OB said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...-clean-brexit/

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

The telegraph reported what OB said:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...-clean-brexit/

See post 3878

So, is "a managed Brexit" or "a quick and clean Brexit" Newspeak language for a no-deal Brexit?

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Hugh

So, is "a managed Brexit" or "a quick and clean Brexit" Newspeak language for a no-deal Brexit?

It's more a quick managed brexit.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

More lies, we sold our fishing quota rights of and the over fishing is the result of a scam perpetrated by some of the wealthiest families in the country

More than a quarter of the United Kingdom’s fishing quota is in the hands of a tiny group of the country’s wealthiest families, an Unearthed investigation has found.

Just five families on the Sunday Times Rich List hold or control 29% of the UK’s fishing quota.

The finding comes from a new Unearthed investigation that traced the owners of more than 95% of UK quota holdings – including, for the first time, those of Scotland, the UK’s biggest fishing nation.

It reveals that more than two-thirds of the UK’s fishing quota is controlled by just 25 businesses – and more than half of those are linked to one of the biggest criminal overfishing scams ever to reach the British courts.

Meanwhile, in England nearly 80% of fishing quota is held by foreign owners or domestic Rich List families, and more than half of Northern Ireland’s quota is hoarded onto a single trawler.

The news comes as the government is preparing to publish a new fisheries bill, which will set the legal foundations for the UK’s fishing industry after Brexit. But while the government is hoping it can net access to more fishing rights in the Brexit negotiations, it has said the new bill will not see any redistribution of the UK’s existing quota rights.

As Unearthed’s investigation reveals, this would leave the bulk of UK fishing rights in the hands of a small domestic elite and a handful of foreign multinationals.

Responding to Unearthed’s findings, shadow environment secretary Sue Hayman said ministers needed to take “urgent action to use the powers that they have domestically to redistribute fishing quota to deliver a fairer deal for smaller boats”.

“Fishing was the poster child of the Leave campaign and [environment secretary Michael] Gove has already broken promises he made to the industry to secure full control of our waters during the transition,” she continued. “With all the talk of ‘take back control’, ministers have the power to distribute UK quota now and put the smaller-scale fleet first. So why wasn’t it mentioned in their white paper?

Thanks to Greenpeace the truth is out there

The investigation found:

The five largest quota-holders control more than a third of UK fishing quota
Four of the top five belong to families on the Sunday Times Rich List
The fifth is a Dutch multinational whose UK subsidiary – North Atlantic Fishing Company – controls around a quarter of England’s fishing quota
Around half of England’s quota is ultimately owned by Dutch, Icelandic, or Spanish interests
More than half (13) of the top 25 quota holders have directors, shareholders, or vessel partners who were convicted of offences in Scotland’s £63m “black fish” scam – a huge, sophisticated fraud that saw trawlermen and fish processors working together to evade quota limits and land 170,000 tonnes of undeclared herring and mackerel
One of the flagships of the “Brexit flotilla” – which sailed up the Thames in 2016 to demand the UK’s exit from the EU – is among the UK’s 10 biggest quota-holders
Around 29% of UK fishing quota is directly controlled by Rich List families. Some of these families have investments in dozens of other fishing companies, meaning companies holding 37% of UK quota are wholly or partly owned by these Rich List families.

So what? We are talking about British jobs here, that's what counts.

---------- Post added at 20:05 ---------- Previous post was at 20:02 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

So, is "a managed Brexit" or "a quick and clean Brexit" Newspeak language for a no-deal Brexit?

I think you are all missing the point here that the 'no deal' Brexit is our bargaining chip. Rule it out and the EU won't listen.

I doubt very much that we will end up with no deal as that would hurt many EU countries. Those who are arguing that we should rule out a 'no deal' are just trying to sabatage the negotiations.

As I have said all along, the negotiations should be held behind closed doors, not subject to the public gaze.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

So what? We are talking about British jobs here, that's what counts.

---------- Post added at 20:05 ---------- Previous post was at 20:02 ----------



I think you are all missing the point here that the 'no deal' Brexit is our bargaining chip. Rule it out and the EU won't listen.

I doubt very much that we will end up with no deal as that would hurt many EU countries. Those who are arguing that we should rule out a 'no deal' are just trying to sabatage the negotiations.

As I have said all along, the negotiations should be held behind closed doors, not subject to the public gaze.

The negotiations are over, Old Boy, closed doors, open doors or no doors at all. There may be an opportunity for some window-dressing but nothing fundamental will be discussed or can alter. Parliament won't accept a no-deal, talk of that is just to win votes from the Party faithful.