Coronavirus (OLD)

[Sephiroth]

Here's the link to the actual 50 pages of Guvmin guff.

https://assets.publishing.service.go...v2_WEB__1_.pdf

25 pages of waffle before you get to the nub.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by richard s

The epidemic has to run it's course across the world before it is beaten... because it will creep back into other countries and start all over again. Country to country travel has to be banned for at least a full year.

To run it's course, it needs to have infected about 80% of the population. By taking these measures, we are prolonging the agony, but at least the NHS can cope. In the meantime, we'll pretend that the collapse of the economy doesn't matter.

---------- Post added at 19:49 ---------- Previous post was at 19:38 ----------

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

How on earth do you socially distance toddlers/pre school ?

Just fix hoola-hoops to them.

[richard s]

Here we go again:


https://news.cgtn.com/news/2020-05-1...XUs/index.html


https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...nease-in-china

[Mr K]

It's all perfectly clear as Boris has explained:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WT59lu4tCU

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

To run it's course, it needs to have infected about 80% of the population. By taking these measures, we are prolonging the agony, but at least the NHS can cope. In the meantime, we'll pretend that the collapse of the economy doesn't matter.

Just fix hoola-hoops to them.

How many times must we go round in circles.

The role of Government and Central Banks is to support the economy. It can easily do this because government budgets do not operate like household budgets.

The economy tanks either way - the global recession was underway far before lockdown. Death, sick leave and self isolation aren’t good for consumer confidence.

The economic crisis is twinned with the health crisis. If you can’t solve the former without solving the latter, regardless of how many deaths you wish to create by not managing the health emergency the fall in the FTSE is here for a while, as are the supply and demand side shocks that have brought forward a recession that was in the cards anyway.

Protect people’s jobs and incomes for the duration and the economy comes out healthier in the end.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Mr K

It's all perfectly clear as Boris has explained:-
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2WT59lu4tCU

It is clear, unless you’re a mediocre comedian long past your sell-by date.

In regards to Boris’s message yesterday and today.

Only those that don’t want to understand, don’t understand.

[jfman]

Shock horror. Capitalist raising own money and risking own assets to prop up failing company. Well I never...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52596273

Surprised Tricky Dicky hadn’t considered this sooner.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

To run it's course, it needs to have infected about 80% of the population. By taking these measures, we are prolonging the agony, but at least the NHS can cope. In the meantime, we'll pretend that the collapse of the economy doesn't matter

Surely to run its course, the R value needs to be 0.5 or less for whatever time period - prolly very long.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Surely to run its course, the R value needs to be 0.5 or less for whatever time period - prolly very long.

If there’s no vaccine found then maintaining the R ratio below but near 1 would achieve so called herd immunity in a short amount of time if the claim at the vast majority of people show no symptoms at all is true.

If you had R at 0.5 and maintained that the infection rate would reduce to zero before it hit 80% of the population. Say there’s a million people with it currently - they’d infect half a million - then quarter of a million - 125k - 64k - and so forth until there’s no infections in the population. However maintaining R at 0.5 would be challenging without considerable restrictions - greater than those proposed in England for the next few weeks.

[spiderplant]

Originally Posted by jfman

If you had R at 0.5 and maintained that the infection rate would reduce to zero before it hit 80% of the population. Say there’s a million people with it currently - they’d infect half a million - then quarter of a million - 125k - 64k - and so forth until there’s no infections in the population.

I think need to get your calculator out.

In reality you couldn't maintain R at 0.5. And that's herd immunity.

[Sephiroth]

Poor old jfman! At 0.5, the factor is applied only to the number of new cases not the original total. But no matter, the series leads to an almost complete defeat of the virus providing it can be maintained. The time it takes to do this is for the statisticians and epidemiologists to tell us but at its simplest, using a two week window, it would take a year for the number of new case to dip below 100 starting with 1 million.

To put that into UK perspective, if you started with 250,000 cases then R=0.5 would still take around 24 weeks to dip below 100.

If R=0.7 then it would take 46 weeks to dip below 100.

BUT - nobody knows the real R rate nor how to fix it to within reasonable margins of error.

[RichardCoulter]

The late national & local news this evening featured the police, schools & local authorities who either don't understand what Johnson was trying to say, or say that it will be impossible or challenging to deliver what is expected of them.

The police said that it will now be imposdible to police as if they stop anyone, all they have to do is say that they are taking their daily excercise, which they will now be allowed to do all day long.

Seaside places say that they don't want flocks of people now coming to their towns to sit on the beach. Nowhere is open, including toilets and there are still people dying in hospitals. One said that there was a high proportion of elderly people that lived there and they didn't want them putting at risk.

What an absolute mess.

Yes we already have people peeing in the seafront shelters here in my seaside village.

[tweetiepooh]

I think the message of common sense is a good one. If you make it very prescriptive there will always be people with valid reasons to break the rules. e.g. you can only travel 5 km to go shopping. What if you live 5.2km from "the shop"? What if you really do live 20km from nearest shop? You can exercise for 1hr, what if you cycled out for 30 mins and on way back had a bike problem or the road is closed forcing a detour over 30 mins? If you prescribe things you have to prescribe exceptions and counter exceptions and so on.
To high-jack Brexit type issue, it's why Eurorules work in some places not others or it gets very complex in countries that have very precise legal frameworks. It's why rules on benefits are complex to try to ensure the entitled are helped but not those who don't need it. The story continues with other areas of life.
So a general relaxation with emphasis on "common sense" both to behaviour and policing of behaviour.
Unfortunately those that abuse common sense either because they are selfish or simple lack any can spoil things for the majority. As at the start before lockdown when it was hinted not to travel beauty spots recorded record visitor levels.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh

I think the message of common sense is a good one. If you make it very prescriptive there will always be people with valid reasons to break the rules. e.g. you can only travel 5 km to go shopping. What if you live 5.2km from "the shop"? What if you really do live 20km from nearest shop? You can exercise for 1hr, what if you cycled out for 30 mins and on way back had a bike problem or the road is closed forcing a detour over 30 mins? If you prescribe things you have to prescribe exceptions and counter exceptions and so on.
To high-jack Brexit type issue, it's why Eurorules work in some places not others or it gets very complex in countries that have very precise legal frameworks. It's why rules on benefits are complex to try to ensure the entitled are helped but not those who don't need it. The story continues with other areas of life.
So a general relaxation with emphasis on "common sense" both to behaviour and policing of behaviour.
Unfortunately those that abuse common sense either because they are selfish or simple lack any can spoil things for the majority. As at the start before lockdown when it was hinted not to travel beauty spots recorded record visitor levels.

You make some excellent points and the highlighted one is the best to my taste. It sums up the majority of the legal frameworks in the EU.

Whereas in the UK, apart from some very precise laws such as speed limits, etc, our legal framework is much looser. As an example, the Coronavirus lock down regulations allows a potential offender to have a "reasonable excuse".

Spot on.