UK & EU Agree Post-Brexit Trade Deal

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

You are exaggerating the cost of leaving the EU to a considerable degree,

I can’t exaggerate something that isn’t quantifiable.

and you are not addressing the upsides. I have said consistently that there are two sides to this equation and you consistently ignore it.

Again, completely unquantifiable.

As an economist, my good man, you should appreciate that there is a credit as well as a debit side.

Indeed, one completely unquantifiable at this stage. I note you are having a separate debate all by yourself on “leaving the EU”. That’s done, gone.

What I do know is that poor planning results in poor outcomes in public policy and greater uncertainty destabilises the markets. Indeed, one doesn’t have to look far to see how easily markets can be spooked.

Frankly, I would be surprised if the EU failed to agree a deal. The political statement accompanying the withdrawal agreement strongly indicates that a no tariff agreement is what they want, and it would be a major upset to the countries of the EU that export to the UK if this is not carried through. If a deal is reached, then where are the calamitous budget implications that will make our sky fall in?

And if a deal isn't reached, it still doesn't mean we won't be trading with the EU. I presume you accept that the EU will lose more by applying tariffs than we will lose. If I calculate that correctly, that gives us a tariff credit!

Without knowing how much tariffs are, the amounts of goods/services consumed in each direction again this is entirely unquantifiable.

Considering the supply and demand side shocks to the global economy resulting from Coronavirus what trade will look like next year is completely uncertain.

The stock market, and the pound, both reacted positively to Johnson being elected on the promise of delivering a deal that would pass Parliament, ending uncertainty, avoiding a cliff edge and engaging seriously but firmly with the EU on a future trading arrangement.

If a deal is reached all to the good, if not there’s no point walking away at an entirely arbitrary date drawn up in different economic circumstances if there’s a realistic prospect of a deal by the end of 2021. As I said before, it gives businesses time and Government time to prepare policies for fisheries and agricultural sectors.

If there’s any rules we don’t like repeal them on 2nd January 2022 - literally nothing lost as a result.

[Sephiroth]

The Guvmin needs to keep its nerve here.

The EU is in some disarray and strife as to how to deal with the economic aspects of Coronavirus.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52135816

Will there even be an EU to negotiate with? Probably but possibly (slightly) not.

So the Guvmin should hold its deadline position, wait for the EU to beg for an extension and then seek concessions.

Yes, you’re right.

They have everything to lose, and it doesn’t matter to us...

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

The Guvmin needs to keep its nerve here.

The EU is in some disarray and strife as to how to deal with the economic aspects of Coronavirus.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52135816

Will there even be an EU to negotiate with? Probably but possibly (slightly) not.

So the Guvmin should hold its deadline position, wait for the EU to beg for an extension and then seek concessions.

Substitute European Union for United Kingdom, same principle applies the other way.

I thought Brexit was done?

[Carth]

Originally Posted by Maggy

I thought Brexit was done?

Nope, still keeps rearing its head . .

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

I can’t exaggerate something that isn’t quantifiable.



Again, completely unquantifiable.

So at last, you confirm that in predicting doom and gloom ahead, you have taken absolutely no account of the upsides. Incredible!

How can you be so confident that this will be a disaster when the only impact of Brexit you have considered are the negatives?

You may not be able to quantify the advantages because, as I pointed out many, many posts ago, you cannot know exactly how entrepreneurs will respond to all the new opportunities that will open up for us after the end of this year. But respond, they certainly will.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Maggy

I thought Brexit was done?

it is, we are just clarifying the depth of our future contempt for each other before the final two fingered salute.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

So at last, you confirm that in predicting doom and gloom ahead, you have taken absolutely no account of the upsides. Incredible!

How can you be so confident that this will be a disaster when the only impact of Brexit you have considered are the negatives?

You may not be able to quantify the advantages because, as I pointed out many, many posts ago, you cannot know exactly how entrepreneurs will respond to all the new opportunities that will open up for us after the end of this year. But respond, they certainly will.

What’s absolutely incredible is your skewed interpretation of my post that clearly balanced both upsides and downsides as unquantifiable.

Once again you are rehashing the Brexit debate all by yourself. That’s history, Old Boy - I can only assume your own insecurity in your argument drives the need to repeat the same opinions over and over.

I note your inability to challenge the rest of my post resulted in you simply selecting the first two points. I’m unsure of the value in that to be honest.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

Substitute European Union for United Kingdom, same principle applies the other way.

Not quite. We are not disunited, even taking Sturgeon into account. Nah - the EU is facing questions from its peoples and from some governments. Implosion is not entirely impossible.


---------- Post added at 12:10 ---------- Previous post was at 12:09 ----------

Originally Posted by papa smurf

it is, we are just clarifying the depth of our future contempt for each other before the final two fingered salute.

A superb aphorism!

[Carth]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

blah blah blah . .

Originally Posted by jfman

blah blah blah . .

Could you two maybe start a new thread . . . 'Going in Circles' may be a good title


actually, maybe a threesome with Sephiroth

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

I can’t exaggerate something that isn’t quantifiable.



Again, completely unquantifiable.



Indeed, one completely unquantifiable at this stage. I note you are having a separate debate all by yourself on “leaving the EU”. That’s done, gone.

What I do know is that poor planning results in poor outcomes in public policy and greater uncertainty destabilises the markets. Indeed, one doesn’t have to look far to see how easily markets can be spooked.



Without knowing how much tariffs are, the amounts of goods/services consumed in each direction again this is entirely unquantifiable.

Considering the supply and demand side shocks to the global economy resulting from Coronavirus what trade will look like next year is completely uncertain.

The stock market, and the pound, both reacted positively to Johnson being elected on the promise of delivering a deal that would pass Parliament, ending uncertainty, avoiding a cliff edge and engaging seriously but firmly with the EU on a future trading arrangement.

If a deal is reached all to the good, if not there’s no point walking away at an entirely arbitrary date drawn up in different economic circumstances if there’s a realistic prospect of a deal by the end of 2021. As I said before, it gives businesses time and Government time to prepare policies for fisheries and agricultural sectors.

If there’s any rules we don’t like repeal them on 2nd January 2022 - literally nothing lost as a result.

You noted OB's "inability to answer the rest" of your post. So please let me fill that gap in respect of what I've highlighted.

First, I cannot argue with your assertions of unquantifiablility So let's leave that.

I don't think the walk-away date is arbitrary. It's been chosen by the Guvmin to put pressure on the EU precisely because they don't think there's a prospect of a full deal by the end of 2020. It sends a message to the EU that either they want a deal, so get down to it, or we trade on the "Australia" basis. It's far from arbitrary but quite deliberate.

True, the new Coronavirus circumstances allow for better preparation time. But here, the Guvmin has to decide whether the extra time will result in a decent deal or keeping the pressure up will focus the EU mind. I have a feeling, however, that the EU won't come to a sensible agreement under any circumstances and that our best chance is to maintain pressure.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

What’s absolutely incredible is your skewed interpretation of my post that clearly balanced both upsides and downsides as unquantifiable.

Once again you are rehashing the Brexit debate all by yourself. That’s history, Old Boy - I can only assume your own insecurity in your argument drives the need to repeat the same opinions over and over.

I note your inability to challenge the rest of my post resulted in you simply selecting the first two points. I’m unsure of the value in that to be honest.

As you well know, we remain under EU restrictions until the end of the year, so although we have technically 'left' the EU, we still have to abide by their rules.

I did not challenge the rest of your post quite deliberately. I simply disagree with your analysis and there's no point going over and over this. The only reason I responded to you was to highlight that your absolute certainty that Brexit was a bad idea and that we would fail did not take account of the advantages of leaving, and you finally admitted this. So you cannot be so sure, can you?

Honestly, if you think your responses on this subject are balanced, do your self a favour. Never think of doing a tightrope walk. Now, that would be a disaster!

---------- Post added at 12:43 ---------- Previous post was at 12:40 ----------

Originally Posted by Carth

Could you two maybe start a new thread . . . 'Going in Circles' may be a good title


actually, maybe a threesome with Sephiroth

Sorry, Carth, but those going around spreading alarm and despondency need to be challenged.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Carth

Could you two maybe start a new thread . . . 'Going in Circles' may be a good title


actually, maybe a threesome with Sephiroth

Good one, Carth! I'd inject reality!

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

As you well know, we remain under EU restrictions until the end of the year, so although we have technically 'left' the EU, we still have to abide by their rules.

I did not challenge the rest of your post quite deliberately. I simply disagree with your analysis and there's no point going over and over this. The only reason I responded to you was to highlight that your absolute certainty that Brexit was a bad idea and that we would fail did not take account of the advantages of leaving, and you finally admitted this. So you cannot be so sure, can you?

Honestly, if you think your responses on this subject are balanced, do your self a favour. Never think of doing a tightrope walk. Now, that would be a disaster!

---------- Post added at 12:43 ---------- Previous post was at 12:40 ----------



Sorry, Carth, but those going around spreading alarm and despondency need to be challenged.

I think you will find that nowhere did I admit not factoring unquantifiable upsides into any past analysis. Indeed, if you are that bored you want to rehash the Brexit debate you can use the search facility and just read it all over again.

I can hardly be accused of spreading alarm and despondency. As I have made very clear on a number of occasions on 2nd January 2022 we could repeal any EU rules introduced in 2021 (not that I’ve seen anyone name any) and use the additional time to put frameworks in place for trade negotiations, for the economy to recover from Coronavirus, create policies to support our agricultural and fisheries sectors. All reasonably proportionate steps for the economy, and Brexit, to succeed.