Will Scotland Leave the UK?

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Not up to me to explain it.

At the moment, the nationalists' argument for independence seem to have won a consistent majority in polls across Scotland. As JFMan and Michael Gove have both concluded, the UK Government needs a non-financial narrative to sell the United Kingdom to an increasingly sceptical Scottish nation.

That will be difficult, as apart from nostalgia, the financial narrative is the only one.

Of course Scotland could go it alone, but not on todays terms.

No doubt, if Scotland did vote for independence, but didn’t get the financial settlement they sold the populous, they’d just blame the English, for now and forever. Whatever happens it will always be our fault.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jfman

Make corporation tax 2p cheaper than England - capital flights and all those threats against tax rises in the UK? Or do you finally accept these threats are a red herring?

Ironically the economic argument isn’t the elephant in the room that you portray it. And the roughly 50% of the Scottish population who favour independence and have considered that despite these threats of doom they’re willing to take responsibility for their own affairs.

Another amusing Pythonesque response from you, jfman. Have you actually passed that tax reduction idea by the Sturgeon? I don't think you'll find she's into tax reductions!

Not that your answer comes close to resolving the economic issue.

---------- Post added at 19:30 ---------- Previous post was at 19:24 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Not up to me to explain it.

At the moment, the nationalists' argument for independence seem to have won a consistent majority in polls across Scotland. As JFMan and Michael Gove have both concluded, the UK Government needs a non-financial narrative to sell the United Kingdom to an increasingly sceptical Scottish nation.

As long as you're not promoting it, Andrew, in which case we deserve an explanation from you.

If there is a belief that the Scots are not interested in the financial arguments, this seems to be a pretty poor opinion of the Scots.

The SNP really doesn't want to discuss the economic implications, which is why the British government need to hammer it home, as well as the other arguments for unity and against the stifling EU.

[Pierre]

It’s difficult to find an objective article on the Potential Scottish Economy post independence.

This is the closest I’ve found to a fact based objective assessment.

https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/13287

It’s a couple years old, certainly COVID won’t have improved things.

This year’s figures continue to paint a relatively weak fiscal picture that is likely to persist unless there is a strong rebound in oil revenues or a substantial increase in Scottish economic growth. Relying on the former would be a particular gamble, which is why the Growth Commission’s emphasis on boosting productivity growth is so important.

As I said they can.could go it alone, but it could take a generation or more to make a success of it, if they can make a success of it.

Their public spending would have to reduce considerably unless they increase economic growth and taxes considerably- which would appear challenging in the short to medium term

[nomadking]

Even if this mythical financial settlement involved Scotland not having to pay back their share of the UK public debt, for which they are disproportionately responsible, doesn't explain away how they would they reduce their deficit, which was running at 8%(that includes oil) in normal times. Are they expecting England to keep bailing them out for all eternity?


If any mythical economic improvements, which haven't for some strange reason happened so far, took a generation to produce results, that would be just in time for oil revenues to tail off even more.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by nomadking

Even if this mythical financial settlement involved Scotland not having to pay back their share of the UK public debt, for which they are disproportionately responsible, doesn't explain away how they would they reduce their deficit, which was running at 8%(that includes oil) in normal times. Are they expecting England to keep bailing them out for all eternity?


If any mythical economic improvements, which haven't for some strange reason happened so far, took a generation to produce results, that would be just in time for oil revenues to tail off even more.

I think some of them are still expecting the Barnett formula to continue!

They certainly can't rely on North Sea oil - there will be little demand for oil by 2050, and prices will be at an all time low.

The SNP do not have a financial bone in their collective body - they will be the ruination of Scotland.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I think some of them are still expecting the Barnett formula to continue!

They certainly can't rely on North Sea oil - there will be little demand for oil by 2050, and prices will be at an all time low.

The SNP do not have a financial bone in their collective body - they will be the ruination of Scotland.

The Barnett Formula is just an arrangement for determining changes in funding. If the gap England has under the arrangements tried to be addressed by increased spending in England, under the Barnett Formula funding would automatically be increased for Scotland. Until the Formula is scrapped, which as it's just a convention, doesn't require a change in law or rules, England can never close the gap.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Another amusing Pythonesque response from you, jfman. Have you actually passed that tax reduction idea by the Sturgeon? I don't think you'll find she's into tax reductions!

As long as you're not promoting it, Andrew, in which case we deserve an explanation from you.

If there is a belief that the Scots are not interested in the financial arguments, this seems to be a pretty poor opinion of the Scots.

The SNP really doesn't want to discuss the economic implications, which is why the British government need to hammer it home, as well as the other arguments for unity and against the stifling EU.

I fail to see how you can describe my post as Pythonesque when it is your incoherent and inconsistent contributions that are often beyond parody.

The biggest argument that is used against tax rises is capital flight - therefore it stands to reason an independent Scotland could create this. As the working from home revolution continues - why would anyone pay staff in England, with higher living costs, when equal (or greater) quality staff can be found at a lower cost in Scotland - in the same time zone and speaking the same language.

At no point did anyone say that the people of Scotland weren't interested in the financial arguments it's that the claims of the unionist parties are not proven as we say up here.

If you think the British government rehashing the same old tired points will lead to success then I hope they take their advice from you. That ends one way, and one way only, independence. Anti-EU sentiment, rightly or wrongly, again it'd be worth the English noting that Scotland voted to remain. A more conciliatory tone, or avoiding the subject altogether, would be a better stance to take. In particular if the UK Government makes little/no ground in negotiating separate trade deals. Obviously, the opposite is true if they can sell the benefits to Scotland of these new deals - however I doubt many are holding their breath.

[Mad Max]

Originally Posted by jfman

I fail to see how you can describe my post as Pythonesque when it is your incoherent and inconsistent contributions that are often beyond parody.

The biggest argument that is used against tax rises is capital flight - therefore it stands to reason an independent Scotland could create this. As the working from home revolution continues - why would anyone pay staff in England, with higher living costs, when equal (or greater) quality staff can be found at a lower cost in Scotland - in the same time zone and speaking the same language.

At no point did anyone say that the people of Scotland weren't interested in the financial arguments it's that the claims of the unionist parties are not proven as we say up here.

If you think the British government rehashing the same old tired points will lead to success then I hope they take their advice from you. That ends one way, and one way only, independence. Anti-EU sentiment, rightly or wrongly, again it'd be worth the English noting that Scotland voted to remain. A more conciliatory tone, or avoiding the subject altogether, would be a better stance to take. In particular if the UK Government makes little/no ground in negotiating separate trade deals. Obviously, the opposite is true if they can sell the benefits to Scotland of these new deals - however I doubt many are holding their breath.

Here was me thinking you lived in England?

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Mad Max

Here was me thinking you lived in England?

You've made assumptions. I've never said (until now).

[Mad Max]

Originally Posted by jfman

You've made assumptions. I've never said (until now).

So whereabouts are you?

[jfman]

I prefer not to share that kind of personal information on the internet. I do think referring to Douglas Ross as "Red Card" and knowing who Richard Leonard is should have been some kind of giveaway that it was more likely that I did live up here.

[Mad Max]

Originally Posted by jfman

I prefer not to share that kind of personal information on the internet.

lol, i'm not asking you to post your address, cause I know OB would be after you
If you live in Scotland I'm pretty sure you'd be safe from a visit, I'm now kind of understanding your stance on independence, although I'm totally against it as you know.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

He doesn't need to explain. Andrew is in no doubt that independent Scotland would be up economic shit creek as sure as their fiscal strength would be nil.

I don't need to explain because I'm not making the case for it. But even if you're making the case for something, you don't necessarily need to go into exquisite detail at the pitch stage. You leave that for someone else to sort out at the delivery stage.

That being said, I'm sure there's nothing unique about Scotland that would prevent it from being a successful independent country.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Mad Max

lol, i'm not asking you to post your address, cause I know OB would be after you
If you live in Scotland I'm pretty sure you'd be safe from a visit, I'm now kind of understanding your stance on independence, although I'm totally against it as you know.

Indeed, the chances of agreeing are quite small. However I can at least try to impartially look at the unionist parties and see where they are going wrong. In 2013, and up til around the middle of 2014, I was quite firmly voting no.

However the media campaign of Project Fear included many things that were palpably untrue. I voted yes and resigned my membership of a political party I'd been in since I was 16. I currently hold no party memberships.

I'm exactly the type of voter the unionists need to sell their vision to.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Mad Max

lol, i'm not asking you to post your address, cause I know OB would be after you

Given some of his more anachronistic views of the Scots, I'm not sure Old Boy would be permitted to travel north of Berwick.

---------- Post added at 21:19 ---------- Previous post was at 21:08 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

No doubt, if Scotland did vote for independence, but didn’t get the financial settlement they sold the populous, they’d just blame the English, for now and forever. Whatever happens it will always be our fault.

Just replace "Scotland" with "the UK" and "English" with "European Union" and "our" with "their" and you will have the Brexit scenario neatly summed up. .