Will Scotland Leave the UK?

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

I’m not convinced the four years, or more, of circuitous discussion would be worth it. Can only test Paul, Mick, Hugh, Chris and Maggy’s patience levels so many times...

You're no fun. It would be such fun in 52/48 circumstances to watch the squirming, wringing of hands, whinging in the wings.

Originally Posted by jfman

In almost any other democracy, and certainly those multi-party systems, splitting the country “down the middle” and carrying 50% of the vote consistently after 13 years in Government that would reasonably be considered resounding success.

What Brown would have given for that in 2010. I’m sure Boris would settle for that in 2022/7.

This argument belongs in the same family as those that advocate holding an indyref every five years. Constitutional matters can't be constantly up for the changing. That way lies instability. That's why countries with codified constitutions (like the USA) generally also have mechanisms designed to make changing them difficult, requiring a large degree of consensus, and therefore rare. Profoundly altering a constitution on a bare majority is ill advised. And no, before you mention it, our membership of the EU was not nearly on the same level.

[jfman]

People who don’t want to change constitutions, naturally, want to raise the bar to make it harder for those to do so. Such anti-democratic moves are commonplace against revolutionary change.

Nobody is advocating an independence referendum every 5 years. However that’s the spectre that unionists put forward as if nationalists think that’s something to fear. There’s a sizeable proportion that would gladly hold one every five years until they win. There’s no vote winner from the SNP within such fear-mongering.

I don’t think the vast majority find the political system in Scotland particularly unstable. In fact it’s the most consistent period of government since devolution began. A government that, as the First Minister pointed out to Baroness-to-be Davidson, will gladly go to the polls on its record next year.

Seph is in the thread to the Seph-jfman peace accord applies to not go round in circles over the EU. I’m sure we can all reliably predict what we’d all say next...

A confident and bold Labour Party would shift to independence neutral - it’s for the people of Scotland to decide as and when. That’d pull the rug from under the SNP. However, those are two qualities the party doesn’t have.

[Mad Max]

Originally Posted by Chris

Red Card has been in post for mere days and I’d be surprised if he, or the exams fiasco (why the “”? it is undeniably a feck up on a grand scale) will filter through quickly under present circumstances.

Our left-leaning members were quick to claim Boris’ popularity has been merely the rally round the flag effect inherent to any major crisis, but oddly enough they’re all still in awe of Nicola Sturgeon, whose decision making on Covid issues has been near identical to those taken in Westminsterland. The Natbots on social media have been waxing lyrical about differences that amount to a few days here or there, or a few more or a few less people in any given space.

Election time will bring it all out ... exam estimates that were 20% over-egged was a blatant political hot potato to all those with sight of it long before results day but they let the moderated grades out and then had no choice but to damage the credibly of the vast majority of accurate grades by backtracking. That’s A-grade political ineptitude. Meanwhile the £230 million ghost ferry MV Sannox slinks into a dry dock in Greenock, more than twice its budget already spent, more than 2 years late and still not in service thanks to an ill-judged deal to save a shipyard run by one of Nicola’s mates. Ferguson couldn’t cope with the job, scot gov owned Cal Mac couldn’t make up its mind what it wanted ... a perfect storm with Nippy sitting at both ends of it.

They’re a sad shower and a poor excuse for a government, and if Red Card Ross (assisted by the newly ennobled Ruth Davidson) play it right they will get a very hard time in next year’s election. Their message needs to be, “we already know there isn’t going to be another Indyref, so let’s talk about...” and then relentlessly target schools, hospitals, police, island ferries, and everything else the SNP has violently screwed up while spending the last decade or more obsessing over independence at the cost of everything else.

Spot on.

[jfman]

They may be a sad shower but they’re polling at over 50%. So how do the consistently incompetent opposition beat them?

It’s a more damning indictment of them that they cannot make inroads after 13 long hard years of claimed incompetence and an exams “fiasco”.

Originally Posted by jfman

They may be a sad shower but they’re polling at over 50%. So how do the consistently incompetent opposition beat them?

It’s a more damning indictment of them that they cannot make inroads after 13 long hard years of claimed incompetence and an exams “fiasco”.

You realise a great many people say the same thing about the Tories?

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

You realise a great many people say the same thing about the Tories?

FPTP gives them majority government on a minority of votes though, so I’d object to “great many”.

Originally Posted by jfman

They may be a sad shower but they’re polling at over 50%. So how do the consistently incompetent opposition beat them?

It’s a more damning indictment of them that they cannot make inroads after 13 long hard years of claimed incompetence and an exams “fiasco”.

Originally Posted by Chris

You realise a great many people say the same thing about the Tories?

Really?

Or...

https://www.politicshome.com/news/ar...irst-time-poll

But the Tories continue to outgun Labour in voting intention, with the Conservatives polling at 42% in the YouGov study — down one point — and Labour gaining a point to poll at 36%.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by jfman

FPTP gives them majority government on a minority of votes though, so I’d object to “great many”.

Proportional voting would give hung Parliaments for yesrs is that what you want?

Remind me why the Liberals and Labour took such a hammering at the last election?

You may think nothing to do with Scottish Politics but it shows what the electorate will do if they don't agree with certain parties policies and actions.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by pip08456

Proportional voting would give hung Parliaments for yesrs is that what you want?

Remind me why the Liberals and Labour took such a hammering at the last election?

You may think nothing to do with Scottish Politics but it shows what the electorate will do if they don't agree with certain parties policies and actions.

Ah the straw man.

I’m not here (in this thread at least) to discuss the electoral system to the UK Parliament, it is indeed, what is is. With its unelected House of Lords that Baroness-to-be Davidson seeks exile in.

However the statement as given related to the “great many” of the electorate.

When we could, and perhaps even should, reflect on the fact that the SNP Government in Scotland enjoys the highest confidence among the electorate of any elected government in this great land the definition of “great many” leaves the rest trailing in their blaze.

Originally Posted by jfman

Ah the straw man.

I’m not here (in this thread at least) to discuss the electoral system to the UK Parliament, it is indeed, what is is. With its unelected House of Lords that Baroness-to-be Davidson seeks exile in.

However the statement as given related to the “great many” of the electorate.

When we could, and perhaps even should, reflect on the fact that the SNP Government in Scotland enjoys the highest confidence among the electorate of any elected government in this great land the definition of “great many” leaves the rest trailing in their blaze.

“Enjoys the confidence of” is a bit of a stretch. “Wheesht fur indy” is not a new concept in Scottish politics. The SNP’s fortunes are aligned with confidence in the Labour Party as an effective opposition to the Tories, and with the level of interest in Scottish independence as a thing.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

“Enjoys the confidence of” is a bit of a stretch. “Wheesht fur indy” is not a new concept in Scottish politics. The SNP’s fortunes are aligned with confidence in the Labour Party as an effective opposition to the Tories, and with the level of interest in Scottish independence as a thing.

But as Hugh's chart shows, support for Labour has been increasing across the UK whilst that for the SNP has not been falling. Maybe it will take longer to take effect in Scotland or maybe the SNP is offering the majority of Scots what they want.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

But as Hugh's chart shows, support for Labour has been increasing across the UK whilst that for the SNP has not been falling. Maybe it will take longer to take effect in Scotland or maybe the SNP is offering the majority of Scots what they want.

... maybe in local delivery terms (albeit a couple of mega-fails); but are they that daft as to want to cut off the magic ATM in the sky as Boris sort of puts it?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

... maybe in local delivery terms (albeit a couple of mega-fails); but are they that daft as to want to cut off the magic ATM in the sky as Boris sort of puts it?

It's about sovereignty and not being bullied by around by the UK.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

It's about sovereignty and not being bullied by around by the UK.

But what do you really mean and think?