Brexit discussion

[Mr K]

It is true that many Brexiters seem to positively joyful about the thought of the EU failing. See the salivating posts in our very own ' the Eurozone will collapse thread'. Don't think it will btw, it's doing quite well compared to the UK. If it did collapse it would be disaster for the UK whether we are inside or outside of the EU. They'll still be our main trading partner.

[Stuart]

Originally Posted by Mick

No it doesn't and no they aren't two different things at all.

A person's level of education is not necessarily a good indicator of how intelligent they are. I work in a Uni and I deal with people with all kinds of qualifications, from students who have just left school with GCSEs and A levels up to doctors (not medical) and professors.

I've known people at all levels who it could be argued are stupid, and people at all levels who could be considered extremely intelligent. That said, the people who get to professor level tend to focus on their subject of expertise so tightly that everything else becomes irrelevant, which is often why they appear stupid in other areas. I've also known a few people who got a good education because they went to a good school, but are till stupid.

[Mr K]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41803604

The Bank of England believes that up to 75,000 jobs could be lost in financial services following Britain's departure from the European Union.

Is this still Project Fear, or now Project Reality ?

Originally Posted by Mr K

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41803604


Is this still Project Fear, or now Project Reality ?

Project Fake News. Just like it was when there was going to be a recession, There was going to be a war, just after the referendum vote.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by Mr K

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-41803604


Is this still Project Fear, or now Project Reality ?

Neither, it's Project We Don't Really Have A Clue But This Is What We Think Could Happen If The EU Does This Or That.

The reality is no-one knows, no-one will know until after we have left.

[jonbxx]

I have been away from the forum over the last week on holiday but have followed the news about an MP wanting lists of educators teaching about Brexit and the frankly disturbing rhetoric from the Mail about universities. It is an interesting point about the correlation between level of education and how people voted in the referendum and why this might be.

Certainly as I went through my education many moons ago, there was a definite trend from memorising to reasoning. At 'O'/GCSE level, a regurgitation of facts was enough to get by. By the time I got to degree level we had to assess facts and propose our theories on what these facts meant. At postgraduate level, I was desigining my own experiments to test hypotheses. I think the education system teaches people not just how to learn but also how to reason and there is an evolution from learning to reasoning as you go further. Of course, it isn't 100% learning at GCSE and 100% reasoning at degree level and the newer style of education at GCSE level is excellent at reviewing evidence for example (I feel that Micheal Gove trying to wind this back when he was education minister was a retrograde step)

There were comments about the difference between intelligence and education and this is right - you can have highly intelligent people who are not educated for whatever reason. However, I would suggest that the demands on intelligence become higher as you go through your education so you might have intelligent uneducated people but you are less likely to see unintelligent educated people. Here is a study backing this up - http://www.assessmentpsychology.com/iq.htm

So why is there a correlation between education levels and voting to remain? I can think of two reasons;

• Further and higher education gives a student the tools to assess evidence, think critically and independently produce hypotheses
• Further and higher education establishments are hotbeds of trotskyites hell bent on destroying western civilisation

Originally Posted by jonbxx

I have been away from the forum over the last week on holiday but have followed the news about an MP wanting lists of educators teaching about Brexit and the frankly disturbing rhetoric from the Mail about universities. It is an interesting point about the correlation between level of education and how people voted in the referendum and why this might be.

Certainly as I went through my education many moons ago, there was a definite trend from memorising to reasoning. At 'O'/GCSE level, a regurgitation of facts was enough to get by. By the time I got to degree level we had to assess facts and propose our theories on what these facts meant. At postgraduate level, I was desigining my own experiments to test hypotheses. I think the education system teaches people not just how to learn but also how to reason and there is an evolution from learning to reasoning as you go further. Of course, it isn't 100% learning at GCSE and 100% reasoning at degree level and the newer style of education at GCSE level is excellent at reviewing evidence for example (I feel that Micheal Gove trying to wind this back when he was education minister was a retrograde step)

There were comments about the difference between intelligence and education and this is right - you can have highly intelligent people who are not educated for whatever reason. However, I would suggest that the demands on intelligence become higher as you go through your education so you might have intelligent uneducated people but you are less likely to see unintelligent educated people. Here is a study backing this up - http://www.assessmentpsychology.com/iq.htm

So why is there a correlation between education levels and voting to remain? I can think of two reasons;

• Further and higher education gives a student the tools to assess evidence, think critically and independently produce hypotheses
• Further and higher education establishments are hotbeds of trotskyites hell bent on destroying western civilisation

I think it's simply that people who've got University educations are more likely to work in the service, white-collar, professions which have done well out of globalisation and the EU.

Those who left school, went right to work, and learnt their trade in something like manufacturing have been impacted negatively from globalisation. Manufacturing has declined, service sectors have increased. In some areas immigration is also perceived to have undercut the local workforce whereas this isn't the case for service workers

[Stuart]

Originally Posted by Mick

Project Fake News. Just like it was when there was going to be a recession, There was going to be a war, just after the referendum vote.

You do realise Brexit has not actually happened yet? No one said the vote would cause a recession. They said that Brexit may well cause a recession.

It may do, it may not. However, in the absence of any hard information on what is going to happen, I would argue it is prudent to expect the worst, but hope to get the best. Certainly better than expecting the best, then finding out that is not going to happen whatever you do.

Originally Posted by Stuart

You do realise Brexit has not actually happened yet? No one said the vote would cause a recession. They said that Brexit may well cause a recession.

It may do, it may not. However, in the absence of any hard information on what is going to happen, I would argue it is prudent to expect the worst, but hope to get the best. Certainly better than expecting the best, then finding out that is not going to happen whatever you do.

No Stuart that is just not accurate. It was said by a few on the Remain side that if leave won, there would be a recession and job losses, right after the vote.

“He [Mark Carney] warned that there would be a technical recession, but that is a recession … he said that, he was completely wrong, the Treasury was worse, it said there would be between 500,000 and 800,000 jobs lost purely on a vote to leave, not actually anything happening, just on the vote”

Jacob Rees-Mogg, 26 October 2017

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Stuart

You do realise Brexit has not actually happened yet? No one said the vote would cause a recession. They said that Brexit may well cause a recession.

It may do, it may not. However, in the absence of any hard information on what is going to happen, I would argue it is prudent to expect the worst, but hope to get the best. Certainly better than expecting the best, then finding out that is not going to happen whatever you do.

Osborne told us there'd need to be an emergency budget if we voted to leave - not when we left. Clearly he wasn't suggesting there'd be a boom.

George Osborne will warn that he would have to fill the £30bn black hole in public finances triggered by a vote to leave the European Union by hiking income tax, alcohol and petrol duties and making massive cuts to the NHS, schools and defence.

In a sign of the panic gripping the remain campaign, the chancellor plans to say that the hit to the economy will be so large that he will have little choice but to tear apart Conservative manifesto promises in an emergency budget delivered within weeks of an out vote.

“Far from freeing up money to spend on public services as the leave campaign would like you to believe, quitting the EU would mean less money,” Osborne will say. “Billions less. It’s a lose-lose situation for British families and we shouldn’t risk it.”

The chancellor will spell out his concerns at an event where he will be joined by his predecessor, Alistair Darling. The Labour politician will say he is more worried now than he was during the 2008 financial crisis, arguing that a Brexit vote will result in not just one emergency budget but “one after another”.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...es-to-leave-eu

Originally Posted by Mick

No Stuart that is just not accurate. It was said by a few on the Remain side that if leave won, there would be a recession and job losses, right after the vote.

https://fullfact.org/bbcqt/2017/Oct/27

What Mark Carney actually said was

In May 2016, Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, said: “we would expect a “material slowing in growth, a notable rise in inflation, a challenging trade-off” in the case of a Brexit vote. He added, “of course there’s a range of possible scenarios around those directions, which could possibly include a technical recession”.

Mr Rees-Mogg was selective/misleading with his quotation...

"could possibly include" is completely different from "would be"

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Hugh

https://fullfact.org/bbcqt/2017/Oct/27

What Mark Carney actually said was Mr Rees-Mogg was selective/misleading with his quotation...

"could possibly include" is completely different from "would be"

You're on fire at the moment with your fact-checking, Hugh! Keep up the good work!

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Damien

I think it's simply that people who've got University educations are more likely to work in the service, white-collar, professions which have done well out of globalisation and the EU.

Those who left school, went right to work, and learnt their trade in something like manufacturing have been impacted negatively from globalisation. Manufacturing has declined, service sectors have increased. In some areas immigration is also perceived to have undercut the local workforce whereas this isn't the case for service workers

I agree that globalisation and its effects have impacted our manufacturing base negatively but will Brexit reverse globalisation for the UK? Considering the UK government vetoed EU anti dumping tariffs for chinese steel and has hired china and france to invest and build our new nuclear power stations, I would suggest that there is no interest in minimising the effects by the government.

If we went super protectionist with high import tariffs, that would help hold up UK manufacturing as home made goods would be cheaper but at the cost of exports as any high tariffs would most likely be reciprocal under any trade agreement.

On the immigration front, I was surprised to find the amount of wage suppression was quite small (0.6% for the lowest 5% of wage earners, most other groups do better - source - http://www.migrationobservatory.ox.a...f-immigration/) Considering this is the case, why is there a perception of much greater effects? Is it the media, politicians or something else?

As an aside, this whole discussion about Brexit has taught me a lot about economics, trade and politics, it's been fascinating!

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

As an aside, this whole discussion about Brexit has taught me a lot about economics, trade and politics, it's been fascinating!

Agreed.
Yet, still the Government feels that we shouldn't be told the facts and is witholding the impact studies on industries from us. I'd rather have these facts than exaggereated studies from Brextremists and lobbysits alike.

Key details of Brexit impact reports on 58 industries to stay secret

The Standard today made a great case as to why this information should be released to the public.

One of the persistent myths about the Brexit talks is that they resemble a commercial negotiation. So the Government claims, like a company, that it must “play its cards close to its chest” and keep its “bottom line secret”.
This is the excuse it has used to withhold publication of the 58 impact studies the Civil Service has done on the consequence for different economic sectors of leaving the EU. But the EU negotiations are not commercial; they are political and they touch the lives of every business and community in the country.
When a business deal fails, the two firms walk away and never have to work together again. Britain and the EU are going to remain stuck in the room with each other whatever the outcome — the facts of geography mean our futures are inextricably bound together.
The Evening Standard predicts that the Government’s attempt to keep the assessments secret won’t hold because it is unworkable, unrealistic and undemocratic.

https://www.standard.co.uk/comment/c...-a3672481.html

[jonbxx]

While on the subject of actual facts, have we seen this - https://visual.ons.gov.uk/the-uk-con...the-eu-budget/

It certainly puts paid to the lie about £350m per week...

How are we all planning to spend our 39p per day?