Will Scotland Leave the UK?

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Scotland is far far behind England in Offshore wind, and they also have a much stronger fishing lobby, that are very anti-windfarm.

I don't think it's a silver bullet to replace oil revenues.

The oil revenues that only three or six (I can't remember which!) times exceeded their Barnett Formula subsidies in 30 odd years.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Scotland is far far behind England in Offshore wind, and they also have a much stronger fishing lobby, that are very anti-windfarm.

I don't think it's a silver bullet to replace oil revenues.

Will be an interesting battle for the future then.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Lots of oft-repeated talk about Scotland's oil revenues coming to an end. But far less talk about its wind power. The UK is the windiest country in Europe and Scotland has 25% of Europe's potential offshore wind and tidal resources. This could give a fillip to the nationalists when pressed on how an independent Scotland might pay its way.

https://www.gov.scot/publications/sc...plan/pages/49/

The list of customers for the energy is somewhat limited by geography, ie just UK and perhaps Ireland. Electricity cannot be transported by tanker.

Remember the Scottish government income comes from taxes, so the potential income from that is still a drop in the ocean compared to their deficit.

[spiderplant]

Originally Posted by nomadking

The list of customers for the energy is somewhat limited by geography, ie just UK and perhaps Ireland. Electricity cannot be transported by tanker.

Actually
"Great Britain’s electricity market currently has 6GW of electricity interconnector capacity:

3GW to France (IFA and IFA2)
1GW to the Netherlands (BritNed)
1GW to Belgium (Nemo Link)
500MW to Northern Ireland (Moyle)
500MW to the Republic of Ireland (East West)."

plus one to Norway currently under construction.
(Source: Ofgem)

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by spiderplant

Actually
"Great Britain’s electricity market currently has 6GW of electricity interconnector capacity:

3GW to France (IFA and IFA2)
1GW to the Netherlands (BritNed)
1GW to Belgium (Nemo Link)
500MW to Northern Ireland (Moyle)
500MW to the Republic of Ireland (East West)."

plus one to Norway currently under construction.
(Source: Ofgem)

How many of of those interconnector links don't involve England, ie not Scotland.
Norway interconnector

The interconnector will be connected in Blyth in Northumberland in the UK, and in Kvilldal in Suldal on the Norwegian side. These locations are chosen after thorough considerations, and will make sure that the interconnector is connected to strong points in the British and Norwegian grids.

Link

Since 2014 the majority (87.8%) of electricity transferred by interconnector has been imported into Great Britain.

Less than 2 mins for me to disprove.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by nomadking

Less than 2 mins for me to disprove.

What have you disproved? spiderplant did not claim the interconnectors were in Scotland nor that we currently enjoyed a surplus in exporting electricity.

The logical question is whether Scottish-produced electricity could be exported via these inter-connectors or if it would need to build interconnectors of its own.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

What have you disproved? spiderplant did not claim the interconnectors were in Scotland nor that we currently enjoyed a surplus in exporting electricity.

His post was meant to disprove that Scotland wouldn't have a limited set of customers for their renewable energy, it doesn't. What other purpose could his post attempt to serve? I didn't claim that there were no UK interconnectors, just that there weren't sufficient possibilities and demand for Scottish based interconnectors(on land or sea) to generate the necessary tax income.

After independence, they wouldn't be able to sell it to France, Belgium, Norway etc. France doesn't need it, and Norway is likely to have it's own wind power. Even if the Scots could sell it, they would be competing against Norway.
Link

Norway does not actually need offshore wind farms for power - nearly all its electricity comes from renewables already - but instead sees the sector as a means of helping its vast oil and gas industry secure a new, low-carbon business model for the future.
...
Like oil, Norway would export the offshore wind it produces. In 2020, hydro and onshore wind power accounted for more than 98% of Norway's record high electricity production of 154.2 terawatt hours (TWh), generating net exports of 20.5 TWh, data from regulator NVE showed.

Geographically land wise, Scotland is isolated, apart from access via England.

[spiderplant]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The logical question is whether Scottish-produced electricity could be exported via these inter-connectors or if it would need to build interconnectors of its own.

There is actually a proposal for one (but it doesn't look likely to be built at the moment)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NorthConnect
Do Norway need more electricity? I suspect not.

Originally Posted by nomadking

His post was meant to disprove that Scotland wouldn't have a limited set of customers for their renewable energy

No it wasn't. You said "The list of customers for the energy is somewhat limited by geography, ie just UK and perhaps Ireland". You already acknowledged (entirely reasonably) that Scotland could export to the rest of the UK; I was pointing out that it could then also export beyond England.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by spiderplant

There is actually a proposal for one (but it doesn't look likely to be built at the moment)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NorthConnect
Do Norway need more electricity? I suspect not.

No it wasn't. You said "The list of customers for the energy is somewhat limited by geography, ie just UK and perhaps Ireland". You already acknowledged (entirely reasonably) that Scotland could export to the rest of the UK; I was pointing out that it could then also export beyond England.

Norway is a net exporter of renewable electricity, so they obviously don't need it. The NorthConnect project is based upon exporting from Norway to the UK via the National Grid. It would be in competition with Scottish suppliers. Therefore very little taxable income raised for Scotland. The electricity is just "passing through" Scotland.
Would be a bit silly to try and transmit power from Scotland to Germany via Norway.
I included the possibility of UK(England, Wales, and NI), along with Ireland. What other countries are near to Scotland and have a large unfulfilled energy requirement? If France needed it, how would the power get there from Scotland, if not via England and the National Grid.

[spiderplant]

Originally Posted by nomadking

If France needed it, how would the power get there from Scotland, if not via England and the National Grid.

Exactly by that route. Why would it not?

[Pierre]

The Western Link interconnector in the Irish Sea from the Wirral to Scotland was built exactly to transfer power from Scotland to England, plans for an Eastern Link in the North Sea are on the table. There are also plans for a cable from R.o.L to Wales and R.o.I to France.

A North Sea grid connecting Dutch, Danish, German and U.K. wind farms is also a long term aim, as is a connector to Iceland, to tap into their thermal energy reserves.

I am somewhat involved in the periphery of the offshore power & interconnector sector.

The movement of energy around the U.K. and Europe is, and will be more, commonplace.

[Sephiroth]

https://cleantechnica.com/2020/11/17...nd-to-britain/

UK Energy Companies Plan Massive Undersea HVDC Cable From Scotland To Britain

This week, three of the UK’s biggest energy companies announced they will construct a massive undersea high voltage direct current “superhighway” from Peterhead and Torness in Scotland to Selby and Hawthorne Point in northern England. The so-called Eastern Link will carry up to 2 GW of electricity via some of the longest high voltage undersea cables in the world. That’s enough to keep tea kettles boiling in 4.5 million British homes. It will create hundreds of jobs during the construction phase and will cost several billion pounds.

Construction is slated to begin in 2024 and the project could be expanded to carry up to 4 GW of electricity in the future. The east coast of Scotland is already home to about 1 GW of offshore wind turbines and has another 4.4 GW of new offshore wind projects pending. After the next leasing round for offshore wind licence areas, there could be up to 10 GW in Scottish waters in the coming years according to The Guardian.

The participants in the Eastern Link partnership are Scottish Power, National Grid, and SSE. Scottish Power and National Grid are already working together on the Western Link that will interconnect wind turbines along the west coast of Scotland and near Wales with England. That project, however, is behind schedule, leading to an investigation by regulators. The Eastern Link news was timed to coincide with the announcement that the UK will host the COP 26 climate conference in Glasgow in 2021.

“From Scotland to Britain”?

[nomadking]

Where are the financial figures that claim, it could all raise £10bn in TAXES.
Link

SCOTLAND’S deficit has ballooned to £40billion, more than eight times the limit set for EU membership, because of the pandemic and declining oil revenue, the UK's leading economic thinktank has found.

Doesn't matter how much any of it can raise Scottish GDP, unless it raise a significant amount in taxes on profits, it is of little consequence.
As a whole the energy sector only boosts UK GDP by £28bn, so the tax levied on the Scottish share of any profits won't be so great.
Link

Gas and electricity have long been the driving force of the UK; powered by coal, oil, gas, wind, solar and hydropower, the energy sector underpins the entire ecosystem on which Britain’s economy has blossomed.
As a sector that contributes a staggering £28 billion to Britain’s economy, the energy sector is a prestigious career route that is powered by a diverse range of roles, from geologists and ecologists to engineers, project managers, insurers and consultants.

[1andrew1]

Scotland’s estimated fiscal deficit balloons in blow to independence hopes

Scotland’s notional fiscal deficit ballooned to 22 per cent of total economic output in the year to April 2021, more than 8 percentage points higher than the funding gap for the UK as a whole, according to official data released on Wednesday.

The annual Government Expenditure and Revenue Scotland (Gers) report highlighted the impact on public spending and tax revenues of the coronavirus pandemic, but also made clear the financial challenge an independent Scotland could face outside the UK.

The pro-independence Scottish National party government is expected to resume in the next few months its push for a second referendum on independence after winning the May elections to the devolved parliament in Edinburgh on a pledge to try to hold such a vote by the end of 2023.

The data, compiled by Scottish government statisticians, showed the country’s fiscal deficit for 2020-21, after a geographic share of North Sea oil and gas tax revenues was included, stood at 22.4 per cent of gross domestic product. This compared with a deficit of 14.2 per cent for the UK as a whole.

https://www.ft.com/content/c5c099a0-...8-5c1ee8193fca