Coronavirus (OLD)

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Well, since the first 40 comments I read actively disagreed with him, with good reasoned comments (cherry picking data, ignoring actions that affect outcomes, plucking figures from thin air), it seems it’s a bit more than "there are comments that give it a bit of a roasting" - that’s like saying the inhabitants of Hiroshima got a bit of sunburn...

Also, hard to take credibly when ha has this under the video

Fair enough, I only gave it the time of day because it was posted by someone I respect on a professional social media platform, you can guess which.

Happy for you to exercise you mod powers and remove it if you wish.

---------- Post added at 22:19 ---------- Previous post was at 21:10 ----------

Originally Posted by Russ

Just watched Panorama. The Tories have blood on their hands.

https://order-order.com/2020/04/29/h...-participants/

Originally Posted by Hugh

I disagree - I believe the majority will understand.

They will understand for a while, but that goodwill will start to wear out as time goes on.

People I speak to locally, and at work, are starting to wonder whats going on.
We are told the incubation is 7 - 14 days, but we have been in lockdown well over twice that, and no one [we know] is infected.
We dont actually know of any cases [at all] between us.

I can imagine anyone queued outside a shop in the rain today is not going to be as happy about it as in the sunshine last week.

We have been quite fortunate really that almost the entire lockdown so far has been in [unusually] good weather.

BBC article for those who like to keep comparing countries.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/52311014

[Russ]

Originally Posted by Paul

They will understand for a while, but that goodwill will start to wear out as time goes on.

In which case they'll just have to put their big-boy pants on and realise they'll have no choice but comply.

Originally Posted by Paul

People I speak to locally, and at work, are starting to wonder whats going on.
We are told the incubation is 7 - 14 days, but we have been in lockdown well over twice that, and no one [we know] is infected.
We dont actually know of any cases [at all] between us.

So...you're saying the self-isolation seems to be working? Who'da thunk it?

Originally Posted by Paul

I can imagine anyone queued outside a shop in the rain today is not going to be as happy about it as in the sunshine last week.

Then maybe they could use something like an umbrella. I'm sure a little rain never hurt anyone. I hate using the word "snowflakes" but....

The rain will keep the numpties at home..Then hopefully the curve will flatten quicker.

[tweetiepooh]

Only read headline but was mentioning that though thousands have looked at or expressed interest in fruit/veg picking (tens of thousands of positions) only hundred or so have actually turned up.

Is this fear of mixing, unable to travel, or other reasonable reason or just that people don't want to do the job? Do the government need to be maybe firmer with those whose salaries they are picking up? My wife said she did the job one season while a student, lots of those not at college at the moment.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

There will be multiple dependant on the R0 number. my own personal pure guess? three to four over the next six to twelve months.

Anyone thinking that there would be just one lockdown is just plain delusional.

Martial law may well be whats coming

Also, as you haven't argued against the maths, Can we assume that you now understand that over a given period of time that lockdowns do in fact save some lives?

No. They just slow things down. Only two things will stop this virus. A vaccine or herd immunity.

What worries me is that the longer this virus is out there, the more of a risk that it will mutate, which means we start all over again.

The lockdown is an understandable and yet panic reaction to this virus which may turn out to be recognised as a huge mistake when we look back on it.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

No. They just slow things down. Only two things will stop this virus. A vaccine or herd immunity.

You can forget about herd immunity as the government went down that road to start with in March and quickly dropped it.

---------- Post added at 10:12 ---------- Previous post was at 10:08 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The lockdown is an understandable and yet panic reaction to this virus which may turn out to be recognised as a huge mistake when we look back on it.

Not sure where you get your thinking for that OB as it was the best option on the table unless you wanted the NHS and all the important relevant services to be completely overrun.

The government has to review the lockdown measures by next Thursday and the word is its unlikely to ease it much.

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh

Only read headline but was mentioning that though thousands have looked at or expressed interest in fruit/veg picking (tens of thousands of positions) only hundred or so have actually turned up.

Is this fear of mixing, unable to travel, or other reasonable reason or just that people don't want to do the job? Do the government need to be maybe firmer with those whose salaries they are picking up?

Probably need to up the salary, it's not an appealing job.

[Hom3r]

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh

Only read headline but was mentioning that though thousands have looked at or expressed interest in fruit/veg picking (tens of thousands of positions) only hundred or so have actually turned up.

Is this fear of mixing, unable to travel, or other reasonable reason or just that people don't want to do the job? Do the government need to be maybe firmer with those whose salaries they are picking up? My wife said she did the job one season while a student, lots of those not at college at the moment.

The government is paying 80% of my salary, I don't want to work ing a field picking fruit & veg, it has nothing to do with me being an office bod. It's the fact I live at home and I'm currently looking after may dad who is 76, so have no intentions of risking him.

My HR manager calls every Wednesday to see how my mum is doing (in the Nursing home),

I did have a shock when I got my pay slip it was over half of what I should have been getting, but he said sorry he made a mistake (I had taked 2 day unpaid when I took my mum to A&E and 2 SSP while in self-isolation before being furloughed).

When corrected I was within £5 of what I guessed I should have got.

I've only left my home to go to Sainsbury's to shop when bread or milk run short, luckily my Sainsbury's has a Lloyds pharmacy who look after our meds and I now phone when the next prescription is due.

I stand outside my mums nurising home window and talk to her, yes we speak daily on the phone, but she NEEDS to physically see us at least once a week. (Back in 2015 she was in a hospital which was a 4 to 5 hour round trip, and I struggked to see her twice a week, her mental suffered as a result, that will NEVER happen again)

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by denphone

You can forget about herd immunity as the government went down that road to start with in March and quickly dropped it.

In public, yes...

Old Boy is right in that herd immunity is the only way to effectively stop this, either by getting the disease or immunisation while still running a functioning society. You could prevent cases and let the disease 'die out' by the strictest of strict isolation but that simply isn't possible without a sanitorium/leper colony type setup.

It's a tough one, balancing out the disease rate, vs. the impact of economic inactivity..

---------- Post added at 11:05 ---------- Previous post was at 10:42 ----------

In other news, had my first COVID vaccine call today. Exciting times!

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

No. They just slow things down. Only two things will stop this virus. A vaccine or herd immunity.

What worries me is that the longer this virus is out there, the more of a risk that it will mutate, which means we start all over again.

The lockdown is an understandable and yet panic reaction to this virus which may turn out to be recognised as a huge mistake when we look back on it.

To take your points in order.


1) Again, There is NO guarantee whatsoever that herd immunity will work. Nor is there a guarantee that a vaccine will work. What you have failed to understand yet again is that the lockdowns are designed to limit the pressure on services and to limit the deaths sustained over a period of time. I'll leave the maths here, there's really no point trying to keep explaining it. Most others seem to understand.

2) The virus has already mutated. Chinese scientists identified 33 strains of it. Link to this is here

3) This isn't the last lockdown, My guess is we're in for quite a few over the next twelve months. Until such time as an effective vaccine or if we can prove that herd immunity will work then life as we know will considerably change people will simply just have to accept it and get used to it or face the criminal/medical consequences.


If neither herd or vaccine are achievable, then all bets are off & EVEN IF one of those two methods prove successful then life as we know it will change irretrievably in many aspects.

---------- Post added at 11:09 ---------- Previous post was at 11:07 ----------

Originally Posted by jonbxx

In public, yes...

Old Boy is right in that herd immunity is the only way to effectively stop this, either by getting the disease or immunisation while still running a functioning society. You could prevent cases and let the disease 'die out' by the strictest of strict isolation but that simply isn't possible without a sanitorium/leper colony type setup.

It's a tough one, balancing out the disease rate, vs. the impact of economic inactivity..

---------- Post added at 11:05 ---------- Previous post was at 10:42 ----------

In other news, had my first COVID vaccine call today. Exciting times!

Great, just point us to the evidence that herd immunity works for this virus?

Congrats on the vaccine call !

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by denphone

You can forget about herd immunity as the government went down that road to start with in March and quickly dropped it..

So they said, but there was a an exChief Medical Officer on BBC this morning that implied that they are still progressing the Herd Immunity concept but over a longer period, amd he advised the BBC presenter that they should question the government on this.

---------- Post added at 12:12 ---------- Previous post was at 12:10 ----------

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh

Only read headline but was mentioning that though thousands have looked at or expressed interest in fruit/veg picking (tens of thousands of positions) only hundred or so have actually turned up.

Is this fear of mixing, unable to travel, or other reasonable reason or just that people don't want to do the job? Do the government need to be maybe firmer with those whose salaries they are picking up? My wife said she did the job one season while a student, lots of those not at college at the moment.

If I had to, I would do it.

I did it when I was teenager, picking Strawberries on the outskirts of Liverpool in the mid-80's. Great when it's sunny, not so much when it isn't.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

No. They just slow things down. Only two things will stop this virus. A vaccine or herd immunity.

What worries me is that the longer this virus is out there, the more of a risk that it will mutate, which means we start all over again.

The lockdown is an understandable and yet panic reaction to this virus which may turn out to be recognised as a huge mistake when we look back on it.

Could you clarify that, please?

What numbers of deaths, and for what length of time, do you believe are delayed?

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

To take your points in order.


1) Again, There is NO guarantee whatsoever that herd immunity will work. Nor is there a guarantee that a vaccine will work. What you have failed to understand yet again is that the lockdowns are designed to limit the pressure on services and to limit the deaths sustained over a period of time. I'll leave the maths here, there's really no point trying to keep explaining it. Most others seem to understand.

If we do develop immunity once we have contracted the virius then Herd Immunity will work. There is very little in the way of reporting that says that once an otherwise healthy person has caught and beaten the virus that you can catch it again.

So based on that, you would summise that there is some immunity, we'll have to wait to an see. but it's the best option we have at the moment.

It is also possible that the Virus will mutate into a less damaging one for humans. A Virius that kills its host isn't doing its job properly.

2) The virus has already mutated. Chinese scientists identified 33 strains of it. Link to this is here

As above, some worse than others, and it's quite possible that people will get some immunity to these other strains or that the strains may be milder.

It's all still a waiting game

3) This isn't the last lockdown, My guess is we're in for quite a few over the next twelve months. Until such time as an effective vaccine or if we can prove that herd immunity will work then life as we know will considerably change people will simply just have to accept it and get used to it or face the criminal/medical consequences.

As I've said before this isn't really a "lockdown". I'm not lockeddown. The only impacts this is currently having to my life is that the Kids are at home, and I can't go the pub.