Will Scotland Leave the UK?

[jfman]

It's not for one party to necessarily define what those choices would be though. An SNP led independence referendum wouldn't necessarily be able to commit a Scottish Labour party or a Scottish Conservative Party in an independent country to forge the same path.

Whether "making different choices" is wholly inadequate or otherwise is into the electorate. As Brexit demonstrated many voters are happy to vote for a principle and iron out the details later. If Scottish voters are happy to do so, then that is their perogative.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

Many of the remainer arguments levelled against Brexit must also be levelled against Scexit. Those arguments may have different answers, but those answers must be given. And the different scale and balance of the Scottish economy compared to the UK as a whole is highly relevant.

To take but one recent example: there have been many complaints about 73 page documents exporters have to present at Dover before they can put their lorry on the ferry to France. Has anyone seriously considered how the Scottish economy will fare if every lorry trying to go any further than Gretna or Berwick has to do the same thing? Scottish business is proportionately much more exposed to this sort of thing than the UK as a whole.

Has anyone put any thought into how Scottish business would access the EU market, even if Scotland were to join the EU independently, given that it is almost totally dependent on road transport through England in order to get there?

Scotland could “make different choices” about its economy is wholly inadequate as an answer to these pressing practical questions for which there are now real-world examples.

Scottish independence has not been so tightly defined as to require a hard border with England or to join the EU at the expense of the UK single market. I'm sure the lessons learnt from keeping Brexit vague so as to render criticism harder have not gone unnoticed.

Independence means independence, as some may say.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Scottish independence has not been so tightly defined as to require a hard border with England or to join the EU at the expense of the UK single market. I'm sure the lessons learnt from keeping Brexit vague so as to render criticism harder have not gone unnoticed.

Independence means independence, as some may say.

Scottish independence has been very clearly defined to the extent of joining the EU. In turn, that defines a hard border with England in the absence of any other legal force preventing that.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Scottish independence has been very clearly defined to the extent of joining the EU. In turn, that defines a hard border with England in the absence of any other legal force preventing that.

Where is it very clearly defined that Scottish independence means joining the EU?

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Where is it very clearly defined that Scottish independence means joining the EU?

I'll let myself walk into your trap. Remember, the only political party advocating independence is the SNP.

https://www.snp.org/policies/pb-what...ion-on-the-eu/

What is the SNP’s position on the EU?
The SNP believe that EU membership delivers many social, economic and cultural benefits for individuals, business and communities across Scotland. We believe that the best way to build a more prosperous and equal Scotland is to be a full independent member of the EU.

If the Scots vote for independence, it'll be based on the SNP's policy. Or do you disagree with that?

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I'll let myself walk into your trap. Remember, the only political party advocating independence is the SNP.

https://www.snp.org/policies/pb-what...ion-on-the-eu/

If the Scots vote for independence, it'll be based on the SNP's policy. Or do you disagree with that?

A vote in an independence referendum is not a vote for all of the SNP's policies. It is a vote for independence; no more and no less.

Is a vote for the SNP even a vote to join the EU? I don't think so, as I believe that would likely require another referendum anyway.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

A vote in an independence referendum is not a vote for all of the SNP's policies. It is a vote for independence; no more and no less.

Is a vote for the SNP even a vote to join the EU? I don't think so, as I believe that would likely require another referendum anyway.

That is an argumentative stretch, Andrew.

Every person interviewed on TV who supports the SNP and independence also supports joining the EU, quoting that Scotland never voted for Brexit.

It is SNP policy. Btw, an independent Scotland's government can devise any rules it wishes for joining the EU. I recall that Edward Heath never conducted a referendum before the UK joined the then EEC.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

That is an argumentative stretch, Andrew.

Every person interviewed on TV who supports the SNP and independence also supports joining the EU, quoting that Scotland never voted for Brexit.

It is SNP policy. Btw, an independent Scotland's government can devise any rules it wishes for joining the EU. I recall that Edward Heath never conducted a referendum before the UK joined the then EEC.

The SNP will remind viewers that Scotland was taken out of the EU against its will and best interests as that will encourage voters to vote SNP.

Constitutionally, voting to leave the UK in a referendum instructs the Scottish government of the day to enact the policy. It is not a vote for the SNP or its policies.

Humouring you for a minute. Assuming the SNP wins a majority this year, is there time to get an independence referendum pushed through, won and enacted and then to have rejoined the EU. All in five years before the next Scottish elections when Scotland could elect a different government?

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Is a vote for the SNP even a vote to join the EU?

As that is their policy, Yes.

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I believe that would likely require another referendum anyway.

As remainers are so fond of pointing out, Scotland voted to remain, so unless their is a sudden unexplained change, they would vote to (re) join.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The SNP will remind viewers that Scotland was taken out of the EU against its will and best interests as that will encourage voters to vote SNP.

Constitutionally, voting to leave the UK in a referendum instructs the Scottish government of the day to enact the policy. It is not a vote for the SNP or its policies.

Humouring you for a minute. Assuming the SNP wins a majority this year, is there time to get an independence referendum pushed through, won and enacted and then to have rejoined the EU. All in five years before the next Scottish elections when Scotland could elect a different government?

Andrew, what planet are you on? The UK government knows exactly why the SNP want to rush things. So no legal/binding referendum will be permitted in the short term. Of course because all politicians (except John Redwood) are liars, that could change.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Andrew, what planet are you on? The UK government knows exactly why the SNP want to rush things. So no legal/binding referendum will be permitted in the short term. Of course because all politicians (except John Redwood) are liars, that could change.

We concur. My point was that even if you believe that a vote for the SNP is a vote to rejoin the EU and that no referendum is needed, it won't happen in the next Scottish Pariament as there's just not enough time. So a vote in May 2021 for the SNP will not be a vote for Scotland to join the EU as there's not enough time.

Hugh has ably deconstructed your loyal but over-optimistic pronouncement regarding Redwood.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

We concur. My point was that even if you believe that a vote for the SNP is a vote to rejoin the EU and that no referendum is needed, it won't happen in the next Scottish Pariament as there's just not enough time. So a vote in May 2021 for the SNP will not be a vote for Scotland to join the EU as there's not enough time.

Hugh has ably deconstructed your loyal but over-optimistic pronouncement regarding Redwood.

He thinks he has. But nothing in Hugh's effort shows JR to be a liar.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

He thinks he has. But nothing in Hugh's effort shows JR to be a liar.

Except for the small fact he made something up that wasn’t in the press release, you are totally correct.

Probably wasn’t a lie, just an "alternative fact"...

[nomadking]

Whether or not an independent Scotland eventually was able to join the EU, there would have to be a hard border and tariffs, with England, Wales, and NI, and the EU.

If a Scotland-UK agreement was reached, that would block any potential EU agreement, that is unless the premise of the NI backstop situation was totally bogus.
Scotland would lose any access to any trade agreements the UK, has and may come to.
Any advantage Ireland has had from the boom in tech industries, would not be available to Scotland. What is the likelihood of new major Google type industries starting up that could set up in Scotland? Any advantage that there might be for Scotland in that situation, would apply even more so to England, Wales, and NI.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Except for the small fact he made something up that wasn’t in the press release, you are totally correct.

Probably wasn’t a lie, just an "alternative fact"...

Seemed to me and a lot of others as a self-evident truth.
You're still the Remainer you ever were.

I think the only political thing upon which we agree is the folly of Scottish independence.