Ukraine on the verge of civil war!

[Uncle Peter]

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

If your referring to the oil and chemical pipelines Uncle the Russians started making plans round Odessa a few years ago when they had the energy spate with Ukraine and Odessa is too far into Ukraine for Russia to risk any sort of military involvement. Russia's political class do not want a military entanglement in Ukraine as well as Chechnya and Putin still has too many allies within the military for some hard liner to go off the rails. Putin and wider Russia just want a buffer from the west they don't want it on the doorstep adding more to the problems Russia already has.

No, perhaps I should have expanded. Odessa and Sevastopol are vital to the existence of the Black Sea Fleet (albeit a shadow of it's former self) and my belief is that Putin and his minions would see Ukraine divided before entertaining the prospect of losing such a key, strategic location. Either that or effect some kind of arbitrary annexation as the Soviets did with the unsightly wart on the landscape that is Kaliningrad.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

All the EU are doing is offering a free trade deal with the European bloc.
We stop pushing when there are no options available to us. If Russia move their tanks into the Ukraine then there may be little we can do but whilst the whole thing is Russia threatening to cripple the Ukraine by withdrawing Oil or closing industries they own in the East then we can push back but continuing to offer the deal that was agreed and which the people want.

After All if the Ukrainian people are willing to fight for it, even in the face of violence, then for us to cowardly abandon them would embolden Russian expansionism no end.

When do you think we stand up to Russian bullying? They bring Ukraine into their club then turn their attention towards other countries who equally don't want to join, do we say enough is enough then or do we once again turn our tails and run, leaving another people to their unwanted fate, all because we're scared of Russia?

Yeah right, no intention whatsoever of getting as many new members as possible into the club...

We start resisting if and when Russia directly threatens our interests and right now the Ukraine is a problem we don't have and don't need. We've plenty on our plate to deal with already and this is just adding to the instability. Ukraine was once in their club and Russia didn't prevent them leaving. What the EU is doing is going to be seen as eroding the buffer zone of countries adjacent to Russian soil and that's a big problem.

So, according to your logic we should assist the Ukranians to pull further away from Russia if they so wish but then stop if the Russians call our bluff and move their tanks in. What sort of help is leaving them high and dry? That's a recipe for being damned by both sides and it's happened before where we've intervened then got the hell out leaving those we were supposed to be trying to help to their fate.

It's not cowardice but common sense to avoid getting entangled in a potential war you can't win unless there's no other option. So far as I can see right now Russia isn't seeking to expand anywhere, it's seeking to prevent a former Soviet state from moving further towards the EU. We can argue about the rights and wrongs of all this but there is another option to getting directly involved and that is to keep out of it just like we have done and are doing selectively elsewhere around the globe.

Originally Posted by Osem

Yeah right, no intention whatsoever of getting as many new members as possible into the club... :roll eyes:

Yes eventually they're a option to become another EU members. Ukraine has harboured that ambition for a while. It's that is what they want it is their choice, not ours nor Russias. Anyway this is more than that now. It may have been the spark but it grew into more. The protestors believe the Government was corrupt and serving it's own interests. Their attempts to use violence against the protestors inflamed it more.

Ukraine was once in their club and Russia didn't prevent them leaving.

I think that had more to do with the dramatic collapse of the Soviet Union more than anything else.

What the EU is doing is going to be seen as eroding the buffer zone of countries adjacent to Russian soil and that's a big problem.

It's not just what the EU is doing it's what the people of the country are doing as well. If they didn't want anything to do with the EU then I would agree but it appears they do and it's their decision to make. The Ukrainians don't see themselves as a mere buffer zone.

So, according to your logic we should assist the Ukranians to pull further away from Russia if they so wish but then stop if the Russians call our bluff and move their tanks in. What sort of help is leaving them high and dry?

Yes because we provide what help we can. Honouring the terms of an agreement they wanted is not especially taxing for us. What other policies and agreements should be cancel at the behest of Russia?

Besides it's not as if moving the tanks in is an action without cost for Russia. They're currently doing the same as the EU, willing to support the country if they choose them. However unlike the EU they don't have the backing of the majority of the country.

It's not cowardice but common sense to avoid getting entangled in a potential war you can't win unless there's no other option.

No one is advocating getting involved in a war. We're talking about supporting the citizens of the country by not cancelling the free trade agreement. A agreement some want us to cancel because we don't want to upset Russia.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

Yes eventually they're a option to become another EU members. Ukraine has harboured that ambition for a while. It's that is what they want it is their choice, not ours nor Russias. Anyway this is more than that now. It may have been the spark but it grew into more. The protestors believe the Government was corrupt and serving it's own interests. Their attempts to use violence against the protestors inflamed it more.



I think that had more to do with the dramatic collapse of the Soviet Union more than anything else.



It's not just what the EU is doing it's what the people of the country are doing as well. If they didn't want anything to do with the EU then I would agree but it appears they do and it's their decision to make. The Ukrainians don't see themselves as a mere buffer zone.



Yes because we provide what help we can. Honouring the terms of an agreement they wanted is not especially taxing for us. What other policies and agreements should be cancel at the behest of Russia?

Besides it's not as if moving the tanks in is an action without cost for Russia. They're currently doing the same as the EU, willing to support the country if they choose them. However unlike the EU they don't have the backing of the majority of the country.



No one is advocating getting involved in a war. We're talking about supporting the citizens of the country by not cancelling the free trade agreement. A agreement some want us to cancel because we don't want to upset Russia.

We're talking about rattling Russia's cage unnecessarily and potentially getting embroiled in something which could easily escalate out of control and end in armed conflict. The EU's interest in Ukraine will not stop at a pure trade agreement and the Russians know this.

Originally Posted by Osem

We're talking about rattling Russia's cage unnecessarily and potentially getting embroiled in something which could easily escalate out of control and end in armed conflict. The EU's interest in Ukraine will not stop at a pure trade agreement and the Russians know this.

It's not unnecessary. It's supporting the right of the citizens to make their own choice about their future.

So why the Ukrainians all of a sudden there have been dozens of countries in the last twenty years where the will of the people were ignored by us even when mass killing started. This is about Russia pure and simple and it's something that could get out of control very quickly with bad handling the EU is not renowned for great handling of things.

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

So why the Ukrainians all of a sudden there have been dozens of countries in the last twenty years where the will of the people were ignored by us even when mass killing started.

Well for our point of view Europe is our backyard. However it's not all of a sudden, we have tried sanctions and other forms of diplomatic pressure in other countries but not always with their military apart from Bosnia. We took an interest in the Ukraine during the Orange revolution. We (well, mostly the EU) got involved in the Russian war in Georgia too. European countries have always been rather involved with the Eastern Bloc since the fall of the Soviet Union. It's utterly baseless to suggest that we've ignored them until now.

This is about Russia pure and simple and it's something that could get out of control very quickly with bad handling the EU is not renowned for great handling of things.

We can't keep backing down in the face of Russia. It won't end well. Putin will see that Europe not only doesn't have the will to stop them but will even terminate relations with those countries to appease Russia. It's not as if Russia would love to escalate things either, instability in the Eastern Bloc doesn't help them anymore than it helps us.

I don't really think Russia has the will to invade a democratic country to install a puppet regime. I think they will also be limited to diplomatic pressure such as withdrawing loans and oil. This is where the EU should step in and let them know that if they don't have friends in the East then they have them in the West and that they, the people of the Ukraine, should decide who governs them. Be is an administration who favours Russia, one who favours the EU, or one who chooses to attempt neutrality and becoming a Eastern Switzerland who really don't want to get involved.

The important thing is to allow them to make that choice themselves rather than do as you suggest and enforce Russian-installed governments to keep the Kremlin happy.

---------- Post added at 20:28 ---------- Previous post was at 20:26 ----------

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

This thing could blow up in the EU's face with dire consequences for all involved.

The EU and the people of the Ukraine. Whose complaints extend to more than just the rejection of the EU trade agreement.

[Osem]

Interesting read here which shows how complicated this could easily become:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26321329

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Damien

It's not unnecessary. It's supporting the right of the citizens to make their own choice about their future.

3% difference in the polls isn't enough of a majority to get my support, I don't see how such a meaningful decision with such widespread ramifications can be decided on such a small number

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

3% difference in the polls isn't enough of a majority to get my support, I don't see how such a meaningful decision with such widespread ramifications can be decided on such a small number

That was presumably before the crisis kicked off.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...93992459983238

MOSCOW—More Ukrainians have swung behind a planned trade-and-political agreement with the European Union, while support for a competing deal for closer integration with Russia has collapsed, according to a survey released Tuesday.

The poll by GfK Ukraine found that 45% favored the association agreement with the EU, while only 14% said they want to join Belarus and Kazakhstan in a Russian-led economic bloc called the Customs Union.

The rest were either undecided or rejected both blocs.

Besides as I said previously this has become about more than just a desire to join the EU. It's also about the Kermlinisation of the Ukrainian government, it's close ties to Russia and back room deals, and the overruling of the Ukrainian people .

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Damien

That was presumably before the crisis kicked off.

http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/...93992459983238



Besides as I said previously this has become about more than just a desire to join the EU. It's also about the Kermlinisation of the Ukrainian government, it's close ties to Russia and back room deals, and the overruling of the Ukrainian people .

So it'll be out of the frying pan and into the for them if the UK is anything to go by what with the euroupenisation of our parliament, the back room deals and the overruling of our people. Meet the new boss Ukraine, same as the old boss, just slightly more sophisticated.

tbf, we are less likely to send in tanks, helicopter gunships, and ground attack fighter/bombers, so I am not sure if that is an apt comparison....

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

So it'll be out of the frying pan and into the for them if the UK is anything to go by what with the euroupenisation of our parliament, the back room deals and the overruling of our people. Meet the new boss Ukraine, same as the old boss, just slightly more sophisticated.

The UK Government is not comparable to the Kremlin either. When a country at our borders with close cultural ties talks of breaking away we grant them a referendum to let them decide.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Hugh

tbf, we are less likely to send in tanks, helicopter gunships, and ground attack fighter/bombers, so I am not sure if that is an apt comparison....

Aren't we, how many times have EU tanks, planes and gunships seen action this millennium compared to their Russian counterparts.

---------- Post added at 16:19 ---------- Previous post was at 16:17 ----------

Originally Posted by Damien

The UK Government is not comparable to the Kremlin either. When a country at our borders with close cultural ties talks of breaking away we grant them a referendum to let them decide.

What about large swathes to the east that are overwhelmingly Russian in orientation will we stand by and let important areas like Donetsk declare independence or stick up for our new Ukranian friends

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

What about large swathes to the east that are overwhelmingly Russian in orientation will we stand by and let important areas like Donetsk declare independence or stick up for our new Ukranian friends

No but then we don't have the EU sending tanks into Wales or Scotland because they didn't vote for the Tories. The vote of the Russian-friendly leader was mostly respected within the country and outside of it (even if that the outside relief was based on self-interest) and it was only after the recent moves from that Government that people reacted. Still we should respect the democratic process in the country presuming it hasn't been rigged. A new election needs to be undertaken and then we'll see where we are.

However it's simply not justifiable to deny them the right to be pro-EU for fear of upsetting the Russians. The desire some on here have for the EU to withdraw the trade agreement and make it clear they will not help or respect any desire to move closer to the Western European nations will remove that right.