Coronavirus (OLD)

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

People are equating the service sector to being shops, restaurants and bars, which Germany and the UK are both strong in.

Germany has more manufacturing but the larger service sector we have is mainly due to financial and professional services.


That's more likely a reason.

German economy services as a percentage of total 70%
U.K. economy services as a percentage of total 81%

Like I said, it’s a combination of both

[Pierre]

And as if by magic, the death toll drops by 5K.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...unted-12047827

Begs the question what the actual toll is.

I saw something recently ( I’ll have to google it to find a link) that stated that of all the hospital deaths up to the end of July, around 25K, that only 1.5K did not have any pre-existing contributing condition.

The more this drags on, the more I’m of the opinion that it’s time to stop being so over cautious.

At risk groups of course, stay safe, but the general healthy population should just be allowed to go about their business.

[joglynne]

On the theme of what has been counted as a Covid-19 related death the following article published on 16th July by The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine which is part of the Nuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences at the University of Oxford, and is led by Professor Carl Heneghan as Director.

snippet
By this PHE definition, no one with COVID in England is allowed to ever recover from their illness. A patient who has tested positive, but successfully treated and discharged from hospital, will still be counted as a COVID death even if they had a heart attack or were run over by a bus three months later.

This why the PHE figures vary substantially from day to day. For example, 16 new deaths were announced on 6th July, but the following day, 152 were reported – today’s figure is 66.

PHE data also confirm that more than 125 000 patients have been admitted to NHS hospitals for COVID, the majority being successfully treated and discharged. There are now less than 1900 patients in hospital. So, roughly 80 000 recovered patients in the community will continue being monitored by PHE for the daily death statistics. More and more people (who are mainly in the older age group) are being discharged to the community, but they clearly may die of other illnesses.

This is why ‘out of hospital setting’ deaths remain constantly high (Figure 1), even though the Office of National Statistics data shows there have been fewer deaths than the five year average in the last three weeks, and NHS England data shows a moving average of 19 deaths per day in hospital.

It’s time to fix this statistical flaw that leads to an over-exaggeration of COVID-associated deaths. One reasonable approach would be to define community COVID-related deaths as those that occurred within 21 days of a COVID positive test result.

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/why-no...tical-anomaly/

[Carth]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Good luck steering clear of this recession...

Can't see me having any problems, live within my means, not ensnared by the latest materialistic fad to be doing the rounds, content with a cheapish smartphone and an aged but very trustworthy car.

I think I'll get by ok, unlike many people I know who are up to their necks keeping up with life in the fast lane

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Carth

Can't see me having any problems, live within my means, not ensnared by the latest materialistic fad to be doing the rounds, content with a cheapish smartphone and an aged but very trustworthy car.

I think I'll get by ok, unlike many people I know who are up to their necks keeping up with life in the fast lane

They’re good for the GDP bubble. You’re not spending fast enough

Originally Posted by Carth

Can't see me having any problems, live within my means, not ensnared by the latest materialistic fad to be doing the rounds, content with a cheapish smartphone and an aged but very trustworthy car.

I think I'll get by ok, unlike many people I know who are up to their necks keeping up with life in the fast lane

in a recession, some firms will go out of business, causing workers to lose their jobs - can you guarantee your employer won’t be affected?

[Carth]

Originally Posted by jfman

They’re good for the GDP bubble. You’re not spending fast enough

aah yes, the good old answer to any recession, borrow and spend as much as you can, we'll work the finer details out later


edit: No Hugh, I don't think anyone can guarantee employment, all the more reason not to spend what you don't have IMO

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

German economy services as a percentage of total 70%
U.K. economy services as a percentage of total 81%

Like I said, it’s a combination of both

All of Europe ( and most of the world ) will be in recession at some point, it will hit different economies at different times.

Let’s see how the Mediterranean countries dependant on holiday dollars have weathered come November?

[jfman]

I’m quite sure the Med countries don’t exclusively depend on tourism any more than Germany relies solely on car manufacture. Equally, there will be mitigation - internal tourism.

The old days of Northern Europeans spending their strong currencies, with locals desperate to exchange for a million Lira or Pesetas are long gone. The outdated stereotype simply deflects from the fact the British economy is finance and service sectors with the rest of the economy built round it.

With a sizeable proportion working from home the rest of the economy built around this is fatally wounded. Which is why elimination of the virus has and will always be the long term strategy for economic recovery. Everything else is a sticking plaster.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

I’m quite sure the Med countries don’t exclusively depend on tourism any more than Germany relies solely on car manufacture. Equally, there will be mitigation - internal tourism.

The old days of Northern Europeans spending their strong currencies, with locals desperate to exchange for a million Lira or Pesetas are long gone. The outdated stereotype simply deflects from the fact the British economy is finance and service sectors with the rest of the economy built round it.

With a sizeable proportion working from home the rest of the economy built around this is fatally wounded. Which is why elimination of the virus has and will always be the long term strategy for economic recovery. Everything else is a sticking plaster.

... and it needs to be across the G20 world so that balance is re-established.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

I’m quite sure the Med countries don’t exclusively depend on tourism any more than Germany relies solely on car manufacture. Equally, there will be mitigation - internal tourism.

Of course, but it will still be a major %, I agree “staycations” across the board will help.

But regardless of mitigation and EU support, drop of 60-70% ( typical in all I’ve read) is significant.

The old days of Northern Europeans spending their strong currencies, with locals desperate to exchange for a million Lira or Pesetas are long gone. The outdated stereotype simply deflects from the fact the British economy is finance and service sectors with the rest of the economy built round it.

That’s just plain wrong. Whether £ to lira, or £ to euro is irrelevant, a tourism/ holiday economy is just that regardless of the currency it is built on.

If the people aren’t there, the people aren’t there..........end of.

As much as a large % of the UK economy is built on finance and services, equally other parts of countries economies are built on tourism and come November we’ll see the impact.

With a sizeable proportion working from home the rest of the economy built around this is fatally wounded. Which is why elimination of the virus has and will always be the long term strategy for economic recovery. Everything else is a sticking plaster.

Eliminating the virus is a pipe dream.

The impact of the virus has been over estimated, over measured and over hyped.

Time to get on with life.

Originally Posted by Pierre

And as if by magic, the death toll drops by 5K.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavir...unted-12047827

Begs the question what the actual toll is.

I'm curious why they use 28 days.

The average recovery time is supposed to be 2 weeks, and if you test positive then surely you are alreay in this 2 week period ?

(Isnt this why we have a 14 day self isolation period)

[Carth]

I thought it was 'up to' 14 days before any symptoms showed, so probably another 14 added to that after a positive test?

I know of two who tested positive, had no symptoms, and returned to work after 14 days.

The figures baffle me too

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Of course, but it will still be a major %, I agree “staycations” across the board will help.

But regardless of mitigation and EU support, drop of 60-70% ( typical in all I’ve read) is significant.

That’s just plain wrong. Whether £ to lira, or £ to euro is irrelevant, a tourism/ holiday economy is just that regardless of the currency it is built on.

If the people aren’t there, the people aren’t there..........end of.

Just as people aren’t in football stadiums or theatres. Your post implies these countries rely upon money coming into their country from outside and that their internal economies are fatally flawed without it.

This is simply not the case.

As much as a large % of the UK economy is built on finance and services, equally other parts of countries economies are built on tourism and come November we’ll see the impact.

Eliminating the virus is a pipe dream.

The impact of the virus has been over estimated, over measured and over hyped.

Time to get on with life.

Countries won’t advocate this because we know what happens - Italy in February, Spain and UK in March. To bury heads in the sand and wish away the virus isn’t viable.

We are at or near the limit of our lockdown easement strategy.

Even if the country eased all restrictions people simply wouldn’t behave as they did before. It’s neither a good strategy in health or economic terms.

---------- Post added at 07:37 ---------- Previous post was at 07:05 ----------

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

... and it needs to be across the G20 world so that balance is re-established.

Needs to be everywhere otherwise countries will keep re-exporting and re-importing it.

But in economic terms any strategies need to be joined up. Some countries could try to exploit the position for short term economic gain jeopardising efforts across the board.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

Just as people aren’t in football stadiums or theatres. Your post implies these countries rely upon money coming into their country from outside and that their internal economies are fatally flawed without it.

This is simply not the case.

Didn’t say “rely”, said large %. Football has TV/ sponsorship revenue. Stadium revenue ( for PL at least) has long been superfluous to income. It is not known how the how or if the smaller non-league clubs Will fair. Likewise small independent cinemas and theatre are still an unknown. It’s a poor comparison anyway.

To deny that restaurants, Bars, scooter hire that are experiencing a 60-70% drop in footfall won’t be affected is blinkered to say the least.

They may survive, but the comment was based around economic impact and recovery.

It will have an economic impact, and we’ll find out how big it was come November- ish.

Countries won’t advocate this because we know what happens - Italy in February, Spain and UK in March. To bury heads in the sand and wish away the virus isn’t viable.

It’s not February or March though. It’s August.

We are at or near the limit of our lockdown easement strategy.

Even if the country eased all restrictions people simply wouldn’t behave as they did before. It’s neither a good strategy in health or economic terms.

We’ll see, as cases continue to stay in the 0.0X % zone, people will more and more question restrictions.

Schools going back is the next big one, if they go back without a jump in infections.