Coronavirus

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by denphone

He obviously seems to find it hard to understand that tough measures are needed because if we don't have them the death toll would be much much higher then it is now and the NHS would be in complete and absolute meltdown and unable to cope.

A very polite way of saying ‘weapons grade spaffer’

[denphone]

This is a interesting read.

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid...in_England.pdf

[RichardCoulter]

How have banks, jewellers etc dealt with the requirements to wear a mask? They usually require a full face to be shown for obvious security reasons.

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

How have banks, jewellers etc dealt with the requirements to wear a mask? They usually require a full face to be shown for obvious security reasons.

The socially distanced queue for service is outside where you don’t need a mask. Only 2 customers are allowed in the bank at a time and a member of staff comes outside to manage entry.

Originally Posted by denphone

This is a interesting read.

https://cmmid.github.io/topics/covid...in_England.pdf

For the tl:dr’s amongst us...

We found that regardless of control measures simulated, all NHS regions are projected to experience a subsequent wave of COVID-19 cases and deaths, peaking in spring 2021 for London, South East and East of England, and in summer 2021 for the rest of England (​Fig. 4​). In the absence of substantial vaccine roll-out, cases, hospitalisations, ICU admissions and deaths in 2021 may exceed those in 2020 (​Table 1​). School closures in January 2021 may delay the peak (​Fig. 4​) and decrease the total burden in the short term. However, implementation of more stringent measures now with a subsequent lifting of these restrictions in February 2021 leads to a bigger rebound in cases, particularly in those regions that have been least affected so far (​Fig. 4 ​and ​Table 1​). However, these delaying measures may buy time to reach more widespread population immunity through vaccination. Vaccine roll-out will further mitigate transmission, although the impact of vaccinating 200,000 people per week—similar in magnitude to the rates reached in December 2020—may be relatively small (​Fig. 5​). An accelerated uptake of 2 million people vaccinated per week is predicted to have a much more substantial impact. The most stringent intervention scenario with Tier 4 England-wide and schools closed during January, and 2 million individuals vaccinated per week, is the only scenario we considered which reduces peak ICU burden below the levels seen during the first wave (​Table 1​).

[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by Chris

The socially distanced queue for service is outside where you don’t need a mask. Only 2 customers are allowed in the bank at a time and a member of staff comes outside to manage entry.

Thanks. Bars & pubs, though closed at the moment, are going to be a problem though. Most town centre places don't allow hoodies, caps etc on police advice for CCTV recognition in case of any incidents. If people have to wear masks when inside these places, the whole concept of CCTV detection goes out of the window. You can bet that the perpetrators will realise this too. It's no coincidence that hoodies became fashionable just as CCTV technology was improving.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by RichardCoulter

Thanks. Bars & pubs, though closed at the moment, are going to be a problem though. Most town centre places don't allow hoodies, caps etc on police advice for CCTV recognition in case of any incidents. If people have to wear masks when inside these places, the whole concept of CCTV detection goes out of the window. You can bet that the perpetrators will realise this too. It's no coincidence that hoodies became fashionable just as CCTV technology was improving.

Why are bars and pubs going to be a problem?

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Hugh

You do know the more the virus is transmitted, the more likely it is that mutations occur?

That may be correct, but without a viable vaccine, it would have been our best bet. The longer the virus is out there, the more likely it will mutate. That is pretty obvious. So delaying its spread through lockdowns is not a sensible long term solution.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

That may be correct, but without a viable vaccine, it would have been our best bet. The longer the virus is out there, the more likely it will mutate. That is pretty obvious. So delaying its spread through lockdowns is not a sensible long term solution.

The more bodies it is in, the more opportunity it has to mutate.

Happy New Year, but sadly it's a start worthy of despair.

[GrimUpNorth]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

That may be correct, but without a viable vaccine, it would have been our best bet. The longer the virus is out there, the more likely it will mutate. That is pretty obvious. So delaying its spread through lockdowns is not a sensible long term solution.

You need to watch Multiplicity as there's a scene where it explains on a level you may understand that copying a copy can have suboptimal results. I know a Michael Keaton film has nothing really to do with the pandemic but it's quite funny and Coronavirus really isn't but if it stops people spouting tripe then it's a worthwhile analogy.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

That may be correct, but without a viable vaccine, it would have been our best bet. The longer the virus is out there, the more likely it will mutate. That is pretty obvious. So delaying its spread through lockdowns is not a sensible long term solution.

Firstly, happy new year to you and to all on the forum.

Regarding your post, reproducton is the key element here. The more the virus reproduces, the more chances it has to mutate. Lockdowns reduce its chances to reproduce and therefore its chances to mutate.

The main benefit in delaying its spread through lockdowns until we achieve herd immunity through a vaccine is so the NHS can cope, and can continue to process non-Covid-related patients. Long-term NHS capacity is pretty fixed due to the training involved in healthcare.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
Some are so desperate to keep the country locked down, delaying the virus will just cause more mutations....

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

That may be correct, but without a viable vaccine, it would have been our best bet. The longer the virus is out there, the more likely it will mutate. That is pretty obvious. So delaying its spread through lockdowns is not a sensible long term solution.

erm, lockdowns slow the spread, reducing the mutations...

Anyway, about that vaccine thing...

https://twitter.com/DrDomPimenta/sta...244423680?s=19

We cannot outrun the virus.

It's estimated 30% of the UK pop. are vulnerable to severe disease - which is ~20,000,000 people

https://thelancet.com/journals/langl...seccestitle160

At 300K a week, it takes 15 months to vaccinate them all.
If we tripled the programme, to 1m a week, it would take till May.

To achieve an end to the pandemic through vaccination alone, would mean reaching a herd immunity threshold.

With the new variant this would need to be very high, ~80% or above, or 52m people.

Even at 1m doses/ week, it takes a year to do this. /5

And in the meantime we continue to average 550 deaths/ day. If that continued on until May that's another >70,000 deaths from today, and continue overwhelming pressure on hospitals and healthcare.

We can't outrun the Wolf. We must tackle it. /6

Which means aggressive suppression measures, with everything we have, to reduce the virus as much as possible.

And aggressive vaccination programmes, running 24/7, day and night, as fast as we can deliver it. /7

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by denphone

He obviously seems to find it hard to understand that tough measures are needed because if we don't have them the death toll would be much much higher then it is now and the NHS would be in complete and absolute meltdown and unable to cope.

Not at all. Your selective memory is failing to recall that I said protect the vulnerable and let the virus pass through the healthy population.

---------- Post added at 12:41 ---------- Previous post was at 12:37 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

You do know the more the virus is transmitted, the more likely it is that mutations occur?

You are forgetting that lockdowns only slow the virus - they do not eliminate it. It’s going to pass through the same number of people in the end.

Fortunately, the new vaccines are providing benefits for us that we did not have before, making lockdowns a more viable solution than they were before.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Not at all. Your selective memory is failing to recall that I said protect the vulnerable and let the virus pass through the healthy population.

An idea that was terrible at the time and worse now as we have the imminent roll out of a vaccine.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Firstly, happy new year to you and to all on the forum.

Regarding your post, reproducton is the key element here. The more the virus reproduces, the more chances it has to mutate. Lockdowns reduce its chances to reproduce and therefore its chances to mutate.

The main benefit in delaying its spread through lockdowns until we achieve herd immunity through a vaccine is so the NHS can cope, and can continue to process non-Covid-related patients. Long-term NHS capacity is pretty fixed due to the training involved in healthcare.

Yes, and the longer the virus is out there, the more it mutates as well.