Brexit (Old) - Page 552

Carth · 10-03-2019, 14:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua

However, a second referendum would at least add a veneer of legitimacy to whichever choice is preferred.

A veneer of legitimacy might do the trick for those on the fence, however what would work much better is the EU deciding to alter a few small details in their 'non negotiable' offer.

Much like they did with the Irish back in 2008:

The first referendum on the Treaty of Lisbon held on 12 June 2008 was rejected by the Irish electorate, by a margin of 53.4% to 46.6%, with a turnout of 53%.

The second referendum on the Treaty of Lisbon held on 2 October 2009 and the proposal was approved by 67.1% to 32.9%, with a turnout of 59%.

I know they're not obliged to do anything (hold all the cards, don't need us etc etc) but a small concession here and there may appease enough voters to accept a deal . . . and possibly quieten some of the rumblings in other EU countries?

forgot to add . . interesting but outdated (? ) read from 2008 https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...-lisbon-treaty

classic last paragraph

jfman · 10-03-2019, 14:18

Why should the EU make concessions to appease a small number of extremists who don’t want to be in the EU anyway? If the concessions are as small as you indicate why do the ERG and their like require them at all?

Concessions to Ireland were to a member state, not a soon to be non-member.

Carth · 10-03-2019, 14:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman

Why should the EU make concessions to appease a small number of extremists who don’t want to be in the EU anyway? If the concessions are as small as you indicate why do the ERG and their like require them at all?

Concessions to Ireland were to a member state, not a soon to be non-member.

Good point, well made . . . no deal it is then

Sephiroth · 10-03-2019, 15:05

I’m fixated on sticking it to that perfidious Varadkar. Whether we remain or leave, I want to get even with that prejudiced man. The EU does not deserve our continued membership.

1andrew1 · 10-03-2019, 15:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth

Good point, well made . . . no deal it is then

Banter about a no-deal is likely the closest we'll ever get to one. Parliament is set to rule it out next week.

---------- Post added at 16:22 ---------- Previous post was at 16:11 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

I’m fixated on sticking it to that perfidious Varadkar. Whether we remain or leave, I want to get even with that prejudiced man. The EU does not deserve our continued membership.

Ireland's always been the junior partner in its negotiations with the UK. Thanks to Brexit, the balance of power is reversed as the EU supports its members. It's not unexpected.

jfman · 10-03-2019, 16:42

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth

Good point, well made . . . no deal it is then

It’s the natural consequence of our inability to negotiate, yes. Whether the politicians can stomach it or not is another matter.

Angua · 10-03-2019, 19:00

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman

It’s the natural consequence of our inability to negotiate, yes. Whether the politicians can stomach it or not is another matter.

With Labour flip flopping more often than a pancake vendor, who knows?

1andrew1 · 10-03-2019, 22:34

Quote:

Originally Posted by Angua

With Labour flip flopping more often than a pancake vendor, who knows?

Yes. Latest iteration seems to be to request an extension so a softer Brexit can be negotiated. But as with any Brexit option be it No-deal, Remain, May's deal or a Norwegian-style deal, would there be a majority for it in Parliament?
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...eresa-may-deal

**Hugh** · 10-03-2019, 22:56

Perhaps, just perhaps, we should have agreed an approach before we went to discuss it with the EU?

Basic rule of consultancy* - agree the approach before you meet the clients, and if anything comes up in the meeting that is out of scope, "we need to take that back to discuss a way forward".

Rule 1 - Agreed approach
Rule 2 - Show single view (pre-requisite is Stage 1)
Rule 3 - if problem arises, ‘let us go away and think about that". Then loop back to Rule 1

*I know, I know - I was young, I needed the money...

nomadking · 10-03-2019, 23:15

If certain people are going to insist on a customs union, why not choose the Turkey model rather than the Norway model? Customs union except for in certain areas, NO freedom of movement, and to cap it all the EU GIVES you billions.

1andrew1 · 10-03-2019, 23:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking

If certain people are going to insist on a customs union, why not choose the Turkey model rather than the Norway model? Customs union except for in certain areas, NO freedom of movement, and to cap it all the EU GIVES you billions.

If we became as poor as Turkey and wanted to join the EU, I'm sure we would be offered a similar deal.

nomadking · 10-03-2019, 23:41

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

If we became as poor as Turkey and wanted to join the EU, I'm sure we would be offered a similar deal.

According to the remain side, if no deal goes ahead we will be as poor.
Norway isn't part of the EU and doesn't want to be. When their oil and gas runs out, will their sovereign fund generate enough to fund the inflated wages previously in the oil and gas industries?

We are a very different economy to Norway and Turkey.

Dave42 · 11-03-2019, 00:07

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth

Good point, well made . . . no deal it is then

only way we get a no deal is have a second referendum as MP's vote no deal out completely on Wednesday rightly so and no not saying they should be a second referendum

1andrew1 · 11-03-2019, 00:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking

According to the remain side, if no deal goes ahead we will be as poor.

Lol, I'm sure you're joking but if you're serious I'd love to see a link.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking

Norway isn't part of the EU and doesn't want to be.

Norway has had a close referendum result similar to the UK's. (1994: 52.2% no, 47.8% yes). So it has retained its half-way house with the aim of keeping the whole country unified. This has worked economically but apparently there would be a strong majority not to join the EU if there was another vote.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking

When their oil and gas runs out, will their sovereign fund generate enough to fund the inflated wages previously in the oil and gas industries?

Presumably, those jobs are paid on a supply and demand basis.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nomadking

We are a very different economy to Norway and Turkey.

Agreed. The City is not keen on the Norway model as we wouldn't have input on financial services regulation, a key sector for us.

**Mick** · 11-03-2019, 00:50

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dave42

only way we get a no deal is have a second referendum as MP's vote no deal out completely on Wednesday rightly so and no not saying they should be a second referendum

Wrong.

You still don't get it, it doesn't matter what vote takes place and how it goes on Wednesday, the vote may very well be pulled yet, to keep no deal, on the table, even so, you're forgetting the leave date is enshrined in to law, delaying A50 will not be enough on it's own, Statute can only override Statute, the default is leaving the EU, deal or no deal on 29th March 2019.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jfman

Why should the EU make concessions to appease a small number of extremists who don’t want to be in the EU anyway? If the concessions are as small as you indicate why do the ERG and their like require them at all?

Concessions to Ireland were to a member state, not a soon to be non-member.

Leaving the EU is not an extremist view, nor is it a small number and you would do well to take note of the rules in the first post, ignore them again at your own peril.