Ukraine on the verge of civil war!

Originally Posted by Osem

Agree, the sooner or later the Russians are going to get mightily hacked off with what they see as threatening EU expansionism.

They fail entirely to see that the rest of the world thinks they are just as guilty of expansionism..and that we all expect them to revert to what they were before.

[Osem]

It's the different political perspectives and motives that make this so worrying.

Originally Posted by Osem

And at what point do the stakes become too high? If Ukraine succeeds in this very likely other former Soviet states will want to follow. I don't know about you but I think a) the EU has more than enough balls to juggle right now and b) being seen to undermine Russia too much would be a very bad idea and I have no desire for us to return to the days of the cold war or anything like it.

Backing away from them will only make the problem of an aggressive Russia worse. If they manage to impose their will upon the Ukraine they'll do it elsewhere too. If we don't want another cold war then it's a bad idea to cede the former soviet bloc to them against the will of the people of those countries.

---------- Post added at 21:34 ---------- Previous post was at 21:26 ----------

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

Russia is almost if not larger then the EU and like it or not cannot be disregarded plus given how much energy goes from Russia to the west it's not smart to create tension. In an ideal world of course it would be as simple as what the Ukrainians want but this is the real world with real consequences for recklessness. I might understand this rabid rush by the EU to expand if all was well and good with currant members but the whole thing right now is a mess they have better priorities right now to sort out without creating tension with Russia.

Where do we draw the line if not at the infringement of the will of the people of a sovereign country? Do we just cut them loose in the hope that it will quench Putin's thirst for more influence, do we cut other Eastern European countries loose as well? Maybe the line is drawn at Poland? Germany?

Russia isn't all-powerful either. They have domestic trouble and are heavily dependent on selling energy to power their economy and if Western European increasingly adopts alternative forms of energy (nuclear, shale gas, renewables) then that could undermine Putin's regime. We should stick up for ourselves and for the people of the Ukraine. Granted we shouldn't start a war with Russia and the EU should not trample on them for the sake of cowardice and appeasement either.

[nomadking]

Does Russia want to control Ukraine, or do they simply not want somebody else to control it, ie EU.

Ukraine will end up being another financial burden on the financial contributors to EU, eg UK.

Damien don't mistake Russia wanting to be more influential in international affairs meaning they have shock armies waiting to annex countries as in the past all they want is a buffer zone between their interests and the west and given the history between the two I don't think that's a bad idea. Putin is not getting any younger neither are the other semi hard liners it's a game of time we must play and make it possible for future good relations with a more modern and relaxed Russia those elements that want a new Russia are already making their feelings felt hence the internal trouble you mention.

I think instead of constant expansion the EU needs to get what it's got right and working for all member states not adding more to a pot already boiling. Most of all I don't want to take any chance of increased tensions with Russia because the past teaches us most that regimes with trouble at home jump into military adventures and as its people of my kids age that would bear the brunt I want no totally unnecessary idiocy or sabre rattling. Ukraine is in no danger of being controlled or taken over by Russia unless they were pushed into a corner.

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

Ukraine is in no danger of being controlled or taken over by Russia unless they were pushed into a corner.

What do you think has been happening over the last few months?

One group of Ukrainians disagreeing with another group of Ukrainians not a single Russian military unit to be seen is what's been going on.

[Uncle Peter]

Wait until the status of Odessa comes into question. That's when Putin will act.

If your referring to the oil and chemical pipelines Uncle the Russians started making plans round Odessa a few years ago when they had the energy spate with Ukraine and Odessa is too far into Ukraine for Russia to risk any sort of military involvement. Russia's political class do not want a military entanglement in Ukraine as well as Chechnya and Putin still has too many allies within the military for some hard liner to go off the rails. Putin and wider Russia just want a buffer from the west they don't want it on the doorstep adding more to the problems Russia already has.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

Backing away from them will only make the problem of an aggressive Russia worse. If they manage to impose their will upon the Ukraine they'll do it elsewhere too. If we don't want another cold war then it's a bad idea to cede the former soviet bloc to them against the will of the people of those countries.

---------- Post added at 21:34 ---------- Previous post was at 21:26 ----------



Where do we draw the line if not at the infringement of the will of the people of a sovereign country? Do we just cut them loose in the hope that it will quench Putin's thirst for more influence, do we cut other Eastern European countries loose as well? Maybe the line is drawn at Poland? Germany?

Russia isn't all-powerful either. They have domestic trouble and are heavily dependent on selling energy to power their economy and if Western European increasingly adopts alternative forms of energy (nuclear, shale gas, renewables) then that could undermine Putin's regime. We should stick up for ourselves and for the people of the Ukraine. Granted we shouldn't start a war with Russia and the EU should not trample on them for the sake of cowardice and appeasement either.

Backing away wouldn't be necessary if the EU weren't hell bent on expanding in all directions for reasons which are beyond me. More members of the club is simply adding to the complexity of the whole things and introducing more variables into the equation.

Given its history we'd be wise not to encroach too far towards Russia's borders because sooner of later they will react and that reaction could well lead to armed conflict. Yes I know you tend not to believe such things could happen in Europe but there's nothing more dangerous that an enemy which feels cornered and perceives its integrity is under threat. The EU has enough fish to fry and if you feel it's OK for it to carry on courting former Soviet states at which point do you feel, if at all, that has to stop? If the Russian people started demanding they join the EU despite the opposition of their government would that be OK? Would the EU be right to encourage that and thereby be seen to be destabilising the country by those in control of a massive military? That's how it'd be seen in Moscow isn't it if more former Soviet states start making overtures to the EU.

Frankly I don't see any benefit in enlarging the EU right now or in the foreseeable future, even less so if it risks falling foul of the likes of Russia who've proved themselves to be unpredictable in the past. Like it or not Russia is a very powerful country and we shouldn't be playing call my bluff with them.

You used the terms cowardice and appeasement and I feel that's rather simplistic and in fact a dangerous view. I'd call it reality and it's the very same reality that prevents us from pushing China around when we don't like what they're up to or intervening in many of the larger disputes around the globe in which peoples are striving for freedom of choice.

Originally Posted by Osem

Backing away wouldn't be necessary if the EU weren't hell bent on expanding in all directions for reasons which are beyond me. More members of the club is simply adding to the complexity of the whole things and introducing more variables into the equation.

All the EU have done so far is agreed a free trade deal. This is apparently the will of the majority of the population of the Ukraine who don't want to be in the clutches of Russia nor a pawn in a second-coming of the Eastern bloc.

Given its history we'd be wise not to encroach too far towards Russia's borders because sooner of later they will react and that reaction could well lead to armed conflict. Yes I know you tend not to believe such things could happen in Europe but there's nothing more dangerous that an enemy which feels cornered and perceives its integrity is under threat.

I don't believe it can't happen in Europe. I think it's unlikely. However the answer is not appeasement to ever more aggressive Russian expansion. They will not stop if we cede them the Ukraine.

The EU has enough fish to fry and if you feel it's OK for it to carry on courting former Soviet states at which point do you feel, if at all, that has to stop?

The right to self-determination should be paramount. These aren't Russia's countries, they belong to the people of those countries and they, not Russia nor the EU, should choose who governs them and what agreements they enter into. If they want to enter a free-trade agreement with the EU then more power to them.

Frankly I don't see any benefit in enlarging the EU right now or in the foreseeable future, even less so if it risks falling foul of the likes of Russia who've proved themselves to be unpredictable in the past. Like it or not Russia is a very powerful country and we shouldn't be playing call my bluff with them.

You used the terms cowardice and appeasement and I feel that's rather simplistic and in fact a dangerous view. I'd call it reality and it's the very same reality that prevents us from pushing China around when we don't like what they're up to or intervening in many of the larger disputes around the globe in which peoples are striving for freedom of choice.

Sometimes you can't do anything. Sometimes you can push back. We do push back against China where we can, we put pressure on them to help us reign in North Korea, we put pressure on them not to infringe on the rights of Taiwan. Now we're pushing back against Russia by supporting the people of that country in upholding their right to choose who governs them and not abandoning them to the Kremlin.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

All the EU have done so far is agreed a free trade deal. This is apparently the will of the majority of the population of the Ukraine who don't want to be in the clutches of Russia nor a pawn in a second-coming of the Eastern bloc.




I don't believe it can't happen in Europe. I think it's unlikely. However the answer is not appeasement to ever more aggressive Russian expansion. They will not stop if we cede them the Ukraine.



The right to self-determination should be paramount. These aren't Russia's countries, they belong to the people of those countries and they, not Russia nor the EU, should choose who governs them and what agreements they enter into. If they want to enter a free-trade agreement with the EU then more power to them.

Frankly I don't see any benefit in enlarging the EU right now or in the foreseeable future, even less so if it risks falling foul of the likes of Russia who've proved themselves to be unpredictable in the past. Like it or not Russia is a very powerful country and we shouldn't be playing call my bluff with them.



Sometimes you can't do anything. Sometimes you can push back. We do push back against China where we can, we put pressure on them to help us reign in North Korea, we put pressure on them not to infringe on the rights of Taiwan. Now we're pushing back against Russia by supporting the people of that country in upholding their right to choose who governs them and not abandoning them to the Kremlin.

You still haven't said at what point that pushing should stop or acknowledged that the next push back might just be one push too far with calamitous results. We can't help everyone towards self determination and some would say, by being part of the EU ironically, we've sacrificed much of ours to people we don't elect.

Originally Posted by Osem

You still haven't said at what point that pushing should stop or acknowledged that the next push back might just be one push too far with calamitous results. We can't help everyone towards self determination and some would say, by being part of the EU ironically, we've sacrificed much of ours to people we don't elect.

All the EU are doing is offering a free trade deal with the European bloc.

We stop pushing when there are no options available to us. If Russia move their tanks into the Ukraine then there may be little we can do but whilst the whole thing is Russia threatening to cripple the Ukraine by withdrawing Oil or closing industries they own in the East then we can push back but continuing to offer the deal that was agreed and which the people want.

After All if the Ukrainian people are willing to fight for it, even in the face of violence, then for us to cowardly abandon them would embolden Russian expansionism no end.

When do you think we stand up to Russian bullying? They bring Ukraine into their club then turn their attention towards other countries who equally don't want to join, do we say enough is enough then or do we once again turn our tails and run, leaving another people to their unwanted fate, all because we're scared of Russia?

[Dai]

Originally Posted by Damien

All the EU are doing is offering a free trade deal with the European bloc.

And that's how it begins. Remember the 'common market' concept that was sold to us all that time ago. Once they get a toe in the door the death of 1000 cuts begins and your self-determination is gone.

So you think the choice they are facing is EU corruption or Russian corruption?EU self determination or Russian self determination?

Personally I'd rather deal with the EU if that's the choice.