Coronavirus

[Carth]

Originally Posted by jfman

I just used the figure Boris used of 50k a day by July 19 - that figure would be a positive test not a contact of one.

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

How about, 'As high as 100,000 per day'

How about realising that these figures are speculative guesswork of a 'worse case scenario' type.

Much the same as changing my Gas supplier *could* save me *up to* £14 Trillion a year . . . but probably won't

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by Carth

How about realising that these figures are speculative guesswork of a 'worse case scenario' type.

Much the same as changing my Gas supplier *could* save me *up to* £14 Trillion a year . . . but probably won't

You're aware I directly quoted 'As high' , right? At no point did i say they would definitely reach that level.

[jfman]

Javid’s quoting that figure now.

The question is with figures growing what will slow it if we aren’t using masks, isolating when close contacts of positive cases etc. If the answer is nothing, then as Vallance says we are doubling every 9 days and that’s likely to get worse.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Because the vaccine has been proven to reduce deaths and hospitalisation - it reduces the impact, it doesn’t eliminate it.

Reduces deaths and hospitalisations by 90%, against a virus were deaths and hospitalisations amongst the population were already less that 1% of the population.

Originally Posted by Pierre

Reduces deaths and hospitalisations by 90%, against a virus were deaths and hospitalisations amongst the population were already less that 1% of the population.

1% of U.K. is 660000 - doesn’t sound so small then…

10% of 660000 is 66,000 - not a small figure.

[tweetiepooh]

Let's not forget those on the site who have been personally impacted by Covid for whom statistics are of far less concern.


But governments do have to work at the statistics level and if the figures are showing that while infections are growing the pressure on the NHS is far less so than before is there need to maintain all the rules currently in place?


This is a novel virus, we aren't used to it so it hits us hard (like smallpox/common cold on native Americans). I think part of the hope is that vaccinations will help build up a more general immunity to the Covid19 type virus so it does become more like the flu (I'm sure this keeps coming round) and it's then a balancing act of building up that herd immunity and keeping death/hospital case lower.


At government level it is a balancing act between economy, health, individuals, groups, science, politics and so on. And lots of vested interests in each or various of these. And for some no matter what and whoever make decisions it will be the wrong one.

[mrmistoffelees]

I wonder why no modelling has been released (perhaps it has and i haven't seen it) which shows predicted hospitalisations, deaths etc. on Aug 19th based on on 'Freedom Day'

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

350,000 infections a week

Let's break that down then shall we?

UK population - 67million

Total that have had at least one Jab - 45.5 million

= 21.5 million (now some of them may have already had Covid and have antibodies but we'll ignore that)

50,000 infections a day + 77,000 vaccinations a day = 127,000 people per day that will have antibodies either through infection or vaccination.

just based on that in a 170 days statistically the "entire UK population" would have Covid antibodies.

There is nowhere for the Virus to go.

---------- Post added at 10:25 ---------- Previous post was at 10:23 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

10% of 660000 is 66,000 - not a small figure.

Unfortunately, in the great scheme if things.........it is.

[joglynne]

I realise this following information was published by Yale University on June 15, 2021 but I have only just seen it and thought it could be of interest to other people on here.

Maybe suffering from a Cold may have a beneficial side effect against both Covid 19 and Influenza during the coming winter months.

snippet ... Since earlier studies by Foxman’s lab showed that common cold viruses may protect against influenza, they decided to study whether rhinoviruses would have the same beneficial impact against the COVID-19 virus. For the study, her team infected lab-grown human airway tissue with SARS-CoV-2 and found that for the first three days, viral load in the tissue doubled about every six hours. However, replication of the COVID-19 virus was completely stopped in tissue which had been exposed to rhinovirus. If antiviral defenses were blocked, the SARS-CoV-2 could replicate in airway tissue previously exposed to rhinovirus.

https://scitechdaily.com/common-cold...ovid-19-virus/

[tweetiepooh]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

I wonder why no modelling has been released (perhaps it has and i haven't seen it) which shows predicted hospitalisations, deaths etc. on Aug 19th based on on 'Freedom Day'

Maybe because it's hard to model cases on the likely behaviour of people suddenly released to "party". Even putting aside injury, if crowds behave differently to "normal" because of lockdown (i.e. closer, more "intimate", distant, less "intimate") and that impacts spread in ways we don't know.


There is probably a worst case scenario being planned for and Boris time and again has urged people to be sensible.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Let's break that down then shall we?

UK population - 67million

Total that have had at least one Jab - 45.5 million

= 21.5 million (now some of them may have already had Covid and have antibodies but we'll ignore that)

50,000 infections a day + 77,000 vaccinations a day = 127,000 people per day that will have antibodies either through infection or vaccination.

just based on that in a 170 days statistically the "entire UK population" would have Covid antibodies.

There is nowhere for the Virus to go.

---------- Post added at 10:25 ---------- Previous post was at 10:23 ----------



Unfortunately, in the great scheme if things.........it is.

I think you're may be possibly missing a point here, immunity/antibodies don't last forever, whilst there are plans for booster jabs in the autumn, there will be parts of the population whose immunity is probably on the wane already. couple that with those who refuse the vaccine and those that cannot have the vaccine leads to the virus always having somewhere to go.

[Carth]

Looks like the opinion of most people - whether experts or not - is that Covid19 is not going away, either with or without booster vaccinations.

Add to this that opinions are divided on whether new variants will be more transmissible with greater severity, but let's err on the side of caution and say they will be.

We now have a scenario where Covid19 is progressing steadily (or rapidly) into a highly contagious killer that cannot be controlled.
Once the death rate surpasses the birth rate, the human population is on a downward spiral to oblivion - the much favoured worst case scenario.

We're doomed, so the only advice I have to offer is borrow as much money as you can and spend it with glee, quit work and do whatever takes your fancy, don't bother mowing the lawn, decorating, or building that new kitchen extension, binge watch all the TV you've been putting off, and drink/eat anythingl you like . . there is no tomorrow

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Let's break that down then shall we?

UK population - 67million

Total that have had at least one Jab - 45.5 million

= 21.5 million (now some of them may have already had Covid and have antibodies but we'll ignore that)

50,000 infections a day + 77,000 vaccinations a day = 127,000 people per day that will have antibodies either through infection or vaccination.

just based on that in a 170 days statistically the "entire UK population" would have Covid antibodies.

There is nowhere for the Virus to go.

Assuming no overlap between infections and those vaccinated which in Israel they are now reporting efficacy of Pfizer has dropped - there’s an emerging link between more opportunities to be infected reducing the efficacy of vaccines.

170 days and millions of chances of a new variant emerging against partially effective vaccines, I can’t wait to see what happens next.

---------- Post added at 11:02 ---------- Previous post was at 11:01 ----------

Originally Posted by Carth

Looks like the opinion of most people - whether experts or not - is that Covid19 is not going away, either with or without booster vaccinations.

It’s certainly not going to go away if we don’t try - that’s for sure.

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Reduces deaths and hospitalisations by 90%, against a virus were deaths and hospitalisations amongst the population were already less that 1% of the population.

How much of any reduction in deaths and hospitalisations are simply because of lockdown and people taking precautions(eg wearing masks)?
Will that reduction persist after those limiting factors are removed? No guarantee either way.

Altogether too many unknowns to give a certain answer of any sort. The only possibility of certainty is with zero cases in circulation.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by tweetiepooh

Maybe because it's hard to model cases on the likely behaviour of people suddenly released to "party". Even putting aside injury, if crowds behave differently to "normal" because of lockdown (i.e. closer, more "intimate", distant, less "intimate") and that impacts spread in ways we don't know.


There is probably a worst case scenario being planned for and Boris time and again has urged people to be sensible.

I'm not buying that at all, we were able to model the 'let it rip' scenario which led to the 1st lockdown, I'm pretty sure the boffins can come up with some sort of scenario planning to include behavior modification based on varying percentages of society.