Coronavirus - Page 429

Sephiroth · 15-07-2021, 16:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth

until it mutates again . . because it's always out there

Yeah - but flu does that too. Every year and it attacks the same body part. Booster jabs.

OLD BOY · 15-07-2021, 16:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Vaccination doesn't equal immunity, does it?

You could say the same about flu.

1andrew1 · 15-07-2021, 16:42

Taking of which, and apologies for those who are less comfortable with uncertainty.

Quote:

Medics fear surge in winter viruses alongside Covid

A surge in flu and other respiratory viruses could put pressure on people's health and the NHS this winter, warns a report by leading medics.

They say testing for flu, Covid and a respiratory virus common in children and the elderly - called RSV - may help doctors treat cases more quickly.

The Academy of Medical Sciences report calls for people with any symptoms to isolate and stay at home.

This will help protect against all respiratory viruses this winter.

The report, by 29 leading experts and requested by the government, says there is great uncertainty about what the next few months will hold across the UK, but it urges policymakers to prepare for a challenging winter.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57837192

Sephiroth · 15-07-2021, 17:15

That report tells us nothing that we haven't known for decades. That they come out with this Project Fear guff is ridiculous.

Quote:

They say testing for flu, Covid and a respiratory virus common in children and the elderly - called RSV - may help doctors treat cases more quickly.

Doctors don't treat flu unless you've gone pneumonic or have converted to bacterial infection. You get flu, feel rotten, stay at home, sleep it off, pick your nose & flick your bogeys. Big deal.

Carth · 15-07-2021, 17:31

Man flu is awful, I've sometimes had to lay all day on the sofa, TV remote in one hand and large glass of Brandy in the other.

Sephiroth · 15-07-2021, 17:53

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth

Man flu is awful, I've sometimes had to lay all day on the sofa, TV remote in one hand and large glass of Brandy in the other.

What the heck is "Man Flu"? Is it a flu that women can't catch from a man? Of course not. Most flus are awful.

I get flu very, very rarely - and it is awful. It's honeyed Swedish whisky for me when I get even close to flu symptoms!

OLD BOY · 15-07-2021, 17:55

Quote:

Originally Posted by Carth

Man flu is awful, I've sometimes had to lay all day on the sofa, TV remote in one hand and large glass of Brandy in the other.

‘Man flu’ is a heavy cold and a brilliant excuse for a few days off!

1andrew1 · 15-07-2021, 18:08

Interesting Tweet from epidemiologist and mathematician Adam Kucharski at the London School of Tropical Medicine:

Quote:

Still see 70% quoted as level of vaccination required for 'herd immunity'.

Important to note it's now likely to be much higher. The standard (albeit rough) calculation for herd immunity threshold is (1/E) x (1-1/R) where E is vaccine effectiveness in reducing transmission.

In scenario where R is 6 (plausible for Delta in susceptible populations without any restrictions), and vaccination reduces infection/infectiousness such that onwards transmission reduced by 85%, above calc suggests would need to vaccinate (1-1/6)/0.85 = 98% of population.

If transmission reduction is less than this (which is likely the case for some vaccines against Delta), or R higher, then herd immunity wouldn't be achievable through current vaccines alone. This leads to three possibilities:

If herd immunity through vaccination alone not possible, need to either:
A) keep some control measures in place indefinitely,
B) prepare for exit wave as measures relaxed

We explored these ideas more in our (pre-Delta) paper earlier this year, with https://eurosurveillance.org/content....26.20.2100428 5/5

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski

TheDaddy · 15-07-2021, 18:19

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

What the heck is "Man Flu"? Is it a flu that women can't catch from a man? Of course not. Most flus are awful.

I get flu very, very rarely - and it is awful. It's honeyed Swedish whisky for me when I get even close to flu symptoms!

Man flu is the worst you can get, it's often fatal unless you get complete peace and rest, you've clearly never had it or you'd already know this, women can't catch it you are correct and that's why they're often required to care for the man, fetching things from the kitchen, plumping pillows regularly and not nagging, that type of thing. Work of any kind is obviously a no no and if you have to phone in yourself I advise arching your back when making the call and saying hello in a very weak tone

papa smurf · 15-07-2021, 18:49

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Man flu is the worst you can get, it's often fatal unless you get complete peace and rest, you've clearly never had it or you'd already know this, women can't catch it you are correct and that's why they're often required to care for the man, fetching things from the kitchen, plumping pillows regularly and not nagging, that type of thing. Work of any kind is obviously a no no and if you have to phone in yourself I advise arching your back when making the call and saying hello in a very weak tone

And if you get long man flu heaven help you.

Sephiroth · 15-07-2021, 18:52

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Interesting Tweet from epidemiologist and mathematician Adam Kucharski at the London School of Tropical Medicine:

https://twitter.com/AdamJKucharski

Hmmm. Using that formula and accepting the 85% efficacy hypothesis, we get the following herd immunity threshold (H) against different R numbers.
___________________________________
E=0.85
R H
1.5 39%
2.0 59%
3.0 78%
4.0 88%
5.0 94%
6.0 98%

E=0.90
R H
1.5 37%
2.0 56%
3.0 74%
4.0 83%
5.0 89%
6.0 93%
___________________________________

As I recall, at the peak of the pandemic, R never rose higher than 3. Maybe someone knows different.

Project Fear again aptly noticed by Andrew.

Pierre · 15-07-2021, 18:59

I’m currently in the Lake District and I can confidently say……….no one cares anymore.

Sephiroth · 15-07-2021, 19:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre

I’m currently in the Lake District and I can confidently say……….no one cares anymore.

I'm currently in Wokingham and ditto.

Carth · 15-07-2021, 19:04

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pierre

I’m currently in the Lake District and I can confidently say……….no one cares anymore.

North Yorks coast was almost the same a few weeks ago . . otherwise my suntan 'shadow' would have been much worse

Enjoy the break Pierre

spiderplant · 15-07-2021, 21:17

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

As I recall, at the peak of the pandemic, R never rose higher than 3. Maybe someone knows different.

R0 of the original WuFlu (which never really impacted the UK) was between 2.4 and 2.6.
R0 of the Italian skiing variant was 3.
R0 of Delta is between 5 and 8.

Welcome to evolution!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57431420