12-12-2019, 22:37
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#16
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 6,798
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Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
If predictions are true, that the horrible Tories will win.
The public who voted for joker Boris, has let all the poor down, the homeless on the streets. the foodbanks etc etc
Boris, has promised all this stuff. It wont come true.
Margaret Thatcher done it in her time, she fooled everyone. And look what she done.
Boris is doing exactly the same.
Theresa May said 'We do not have money tree' So where has Boris found the money.
What will happen to recoup this money. Is to hit the welfare budget, and any other budget that he will recover the money.
Yes, l voted Labour. But, l did have doubts right up to the last minute. If Corbyn loses. Then he should resign tomorrow.: ad:
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12-12-2019, 22:41
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#17
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The Dark Satanic Mills
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: floating in the ether
Posts: 12,038
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Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
Well, i’m Going to stay up for an hour.
But the exit polls have been spot on for last two elections, even with a margin of error, you would expect on these numbers Tory’s to have a majority.
So based on that, Happy.
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The wheel's still turning but the hamsters dead.
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12-12-2019, 22:48
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#18
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Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2003
Posts: 15,118
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Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
BREAKING: £ Sterling Sky rockets on news of Exit poll, currently up to $1.35 !
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12-12-2019, 22:48
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#19
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Remoaner
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 32,226
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Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
Well, i’m Going to stay up for an hour.
But the exit polls have been spot on for last two elections, even with a margin of error, you would expect on these numbers Tory’s to have a majority.
So based on that, Happy.
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Well the margin of error could make a huge difference if most of these seats are close but I would think they compensate for them because, as you say, they're rarely wrong.
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12-12-2019, 22:54
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#20
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Trollsplatter
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests
Posts: 36,928
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Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
Well the margin of error could make a huge difference if most of these seats are close but I would think they compensate for them because, as you say, they're rarely wrong.
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As Christine Jardine (Lib dem) is currently telling Huw Edwards from Edinburgh, exit polls are great at the overall national picture but prone to miss local situations, especially in very marginal seats. And most of Scotland is marginal right now.
I can live with an SNP total of 55 because with an invigorated Tory party in Westminster and (I reckon) about 30% of the vote in Scotland, there is actually nothing Nippy Sturgeon can do about it if and when Boris refuses her demands for a section 30 order for an official referendum. But as of right now I don’t think the SNP will do quite as well as suggested.
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12-12-2019, 22:55
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#21
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The Dark Satanic Mills
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: floating in the ether
Posts: 12,038
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Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
Well the margin of error could make a huge difference if most of these seats are close but I would think they compensate for them because, as you say, they're rarely wrong.
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Indeed.
A forecast of a majority of 86, they only need a majority of 1.
There would have to a complete and total collapse in polling accuracy for Labour to win. Is anyone watching Putin?
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The wheel's still turning but the hamsters dead.
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12-12-2019, 22:55
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#22
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Dec 2013
Posts: 14,231
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Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
Well the margin of error could make a huge difference if most of these seats are close but I would think they compensate for them because, as you say, they're rarely wrong.
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The Economist has looked at the margin of error in the context of this year's election and even given the margin of error, it shouldn't be a hung Parliament.
Quote:
The exit poll’s uncertainty is communicated in the message that is broadcast at 10pm. A prospective government needs 326 seats to win a majority, but with an approximate margin of error of 15 seats either side, a central estimate of anything under 340 seats for the winning party means that the exit poll cannot rule out the possibility of a hung parliament. In the past three elections, even with remarkably accurate exit polls, the announcement of “Conservatives the largest party” has preceded very different outcomes: in 2010 a hung parliament and a coalition government; in 2015 an outright, albeit, slim majority; and in 2017 another hung parliament and a minority government.
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https://www.economist.com/graphic-de...dgraphicdetail
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12-12-2019, 23:03
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#23
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Sad Doig Fan!
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Barry South Wales
Age: 68
Services: With VM for BB 250Mb service.(Deal)
Posts: 11,657
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Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
Worst vote for Labour in 100 years if the result holds btw
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Not quite, worst since 1935.
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12-12-2019, 23:06
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#24
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Remoaner
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 32,226
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Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
Indeed.
A forecast of a majority of 86, they only need a majority of 1.
There would have to a complete and total collapse in polling accuracy for Labour to win. Is anyone watching Putin?
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Big difference to the future of the country between 1 (ERG can cause issues) and 86 (ERG cannot).
I think though the exit poll isn't so vulnerable to small swings though as they only look at specific seats.
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12-12-2019, 23:10
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#25
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cf.mega poster
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 6,798
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Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
Pip, l totally agree with you. It will be goodbye to the NHS, that will go to private hands. All the crap Boris has comes out with the gain votes will be gone.
I have always voted Labour. But, thwe people will have to feel sorry for. Is the poor.
Boris and his cronies will not give a damn for them.
The Tories have always been the rich mans party. But Labour has changed over the years.
Its is no longer the Workers party, that looks after the working man, or woman.
As soon as the final decision is in. Boris will have his 'cut throat team with him' And then decide how to recoup the money that he will promise.
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12-12-2019, 23:13
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#26
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Remoaner
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Mar 2004
Posts: 32,226
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Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
Recount likely in Blyth Valley, the exit poll said that one was too close to call. Suggests (from one data point) that it's right.
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12-12-2019, 23:16
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#27
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Trollsplatter
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: North of Watford
Services: Humane elimination of all common Internet pests
Posts: 36,928
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Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arthurgray50@blu
Pip, l totally agree with you. It will be goodbye to the NHS, that will go to private hands. All the crap Boris has comes out with the gain votes will be gone.
I have always voted Labour. But, thwe people will have to feel sorry for. Is the poor.
Boris and his cronies will not give a damn for them.
The Tories have always been the rich mans party. But Labour has changed over the years.
Its is no longer the Workers party, that looks after the working man, or woman.
As soon as the final decision is in. Boris will have his 'cut throat team with him' And then decide how to recoup the money that he will promise.
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Arthur, you have not always voted Labour, you are on record on this forum saying you have voted Lib Dem in the past because you didn’t like the Labour candidate. Please don’t make me look it up and link back to it again (as I have done several times in the past when you come out with this nonsense).
Furthermore, when we get to 2024 and the Tories still haven’t sold the NHS, will you finally admit that this is the biggest, most long-running lie in political history?
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12-12-2019, 23:18
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#28
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
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Posts: 42,099
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Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
Quote:
Originally Posted by Damien
Recount likely in Blyth Valley, the exit poll said that one was too close to call. Suggests (from one data point) that it's right.
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And that’s from a nearly 8k Labour majority in 2017
Bundle recount underway.
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12-12-2019, 23:27
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#29
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Sad Doig Fan!
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Barry South Wales
Age: 68
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Posts: 11,657
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Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
Newcastle Upon Tyne Central result Labour hold 12,278 majority
Haughton & Sunderland South Labour hold 3,115 majority
Blythe Valley Conservative win 712 Majority (recount in progress)
Last edited by pip08456; 12-12-2019 at 23:38.
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12-12-2019, 23:31
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#30
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laeva recumbens anguis
Cable Forum Team
Join Date: Jun 2006
Age: 67
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Re: Election 2019 Exit Poll
Blyth Valley - Conservatives win
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