Ukraine on the verge of civil war!

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

Someone needs to tell Putin the Ukraine is not his country. I still suspect they're just doing to intimidate. The consequences of Russia invading a Foreign democratic country would be too serious even for Putin to seriously contemplate.

What could/would we do about it?

[Uncle Peter]

Both sides have very capable military forces so it wouldn't be pretty. They're going to have to sort it out amongst themselves, sensibly I hope. This is no occasion for any NATO intervention.

Originally Posted by Osem

What could/would we do about it?

We couldn't do anything but there would still be consequences.

First of all it would pretty much end any chance Russia has of convincing the Ukrainian citizens to seek closer ties with them and further destabilise the region on their border. It would do the same to the other Eastern European states they wish to join their Custom Union. Those countries will look at Russia with further distrust and a stronger desire to seek refuge to towards the West. Also, and I don't know this for sure, but domestic pressure on Putin will surely increase if he drags them into a war against a country which is not only democratic but poses no threat to them.

It just seems so stupid. However it's a worrying sign how far Russia may go. As I said before they need to be stood up to (diplomatically). When the citizens rejected the increasing Russian influence on their Government they start moving armed forces around to intimidate.

[Osem]

Yes there would be consequences and we may consider Putin's actions stupid but we aren't in a position to do anything meaningful were the Russians to march into Ukraine. Who are we to say which states pose a threat to Russia and which do not. Russia's big enough to decide that for itself and I don't see them sitting back and doing nothing about what's going on for long if, rightly or wrongly, they feel their security is at risk. I just hope that a suitable compromise can be found because if one isn't this could get very messy indeed. The EU has dangled a carrot in front of Ukraine and that could turn out to be the catalyst for a serious conflict.

Originally Posted by Osem

Russia's big enough to decide that for itself and I don't see them sitting back and doing nothing about what's going on for long if, rightly or wrongly, they feel their security is at risk.

Or they feel their influence is at risk by allowing the Ukraine to choose for itself.

[Osem]

They'd argue that their security also depends on their influence in those countries which surround their borders. To that extent they'll understandably not want what's going on in Ukraine to have a domino effect.

Ukraine's interior minister has accused Russian forces of occupying Sevastopol airport in the autonomous region of Crimea.

Arsen Avakov called their presence an "armed invasion".

But Russia's Black Sea Fleet has denied that Russian servicemen are taking part.

The other main Crimean airport, Simferopol, was also occupied by armed men on Friday. The men are thought to be pro-Russia militia.

The Ukrainian parliament has called on the United Nations Security Council to discuss the situation in Crimea.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26379722

Moving quite fast now. Russia moving into Crimea...

[Osem]

Some will say the EU effectively handed Putin the excuse he needed to justify action in Ukraine which he'd probably been planning for ages. One thing's for sure, there are no easy, straightforward, decisions in matters such as these.

Wonder if Hugh's Cold War loins are stirring...

Originally Posted by Osem

Some will say the EU effectively handed Putin the excuse he needed to justify action in Ukraine which he'd probably been planning for ages. One thing's for sure, there are no easy, straightforward, decisions in matters such as these.

Wonder if Hugh's Cold War loins are stirring...

It's not just the EU though. It's also the increasingly authoritarian actions of the President. Forcing laws through Parliament, allegedly illegally (I am not an expert on Ukrainian politics so not sure how that is possible), including laws that limited freedom of speech and protests. The Ukraines perceived an increasingly Kremlin style Governance was taking hold and being aware of the last time they lived under such influence they had no desire to do so again. The closer ties with the EU may be the straw that broke the camel's back but it isn't the main cause of the crisis.

These events were always on the cards the moment Putin identified Ukraine as central to his plans for a Russian Customs Union. If the people of the Ukraine aren't keen on it then they were going to exert pressure on the Government to do it anyway, he probably didn't expect them to fight back.

[richard s]

People in Russia should rise up and get rid of Putin and Medvedev.

Originally Posted by Osem

Some will say the EU effectively handed Putin the excuse he needed to justify action in Ukraine which he'd probably been planning for ages. One thing's for sure, there are no easy, straightforward, decisions in matters such as these.

Wonder if Hugh's Cold War loins are stirring...

Remember the Fulda Gap!

I have been watching this with interest - reminds me so much of the Prague Spring; if it hadn't been for this reason, there would have been another reason for Russki boots on the ground.

Putin's not much different from his Comintern predecessors, just more fiscally corrupt.

The real question is this: Alex Ferguson was at United for the entirety of modern Ukrinances existence as a Independent country and as soon as Moyes take over they find themselves invaded. Coincidence?

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

The real question is this: Alex Ferguson was at United for the entirety of modern Ukrinances existence as a Independent country and as soon as Moyes take over they find themselves invaded. Coincidence?

That and a sudden improvement in West Ham's form...

[richard s]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

How do you know that the Russian people want to get rid of Putin etc? Perhaps they rather like seeing their country throw its weight about internationally.

Looks like the Russians would like to annex the Crimea as it's a Russian speaking and supporting region.

Sudetenland anybody?

SHOULD GET RID OFF... please read carefully.

[Uncle Peter]

Text-book operation up to now... well it would have been in the 1950s or 1960s anyway. If Putin wants to annexe Crimea then he should be careful what he wishes for as should the ethnic Russian Ukrainians on team Ruskii. This is potentially anoter proverbial crap sandwich of similar magnitude to Chechnya and he's not going to be able to get away with the type of cultural vandalism and oppression meted out by Stalin to assert authority and weed out any potential opposition.

Putin needs to concentrate on watching his own back at home rather than what's happening beyond his borders.