Brexit discussion

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The trouble is that many Brexiters are in denial. They felt that they would be better off outside the EU but were guided to ignore the overwhelming evidence that said otherwise. Do they now either eat their words or pretend all the analysis is fake news/Remainer conspiracies?

The trouble is, that you are wrong (as per usual), we are not in denial, far from it. Utter bullshit, I am not in denial about anything. I want out, I would vote out again and again. Roll on Brexit day, no denials here, not a chance.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

Andrew stop being so stupid or do you honestly believe only one impact study was done by the government to fit all the different departments far more then one were commissioned but only one was leaked. Also can you stop saying we all thought we were going to be immediately better off it's been said many times on this forum that in the short to medium term we will be worse off but in the longer term we will be better off. You constantly misrepresent things then wonder why no one takes you seriously and also stop pretending you have a clue about how the civil service is working when you think only one impact study was done to cover all aspects of brexit for all government departments.

You don't know anything for a fact neither do i and here's a shocker neither do the experts who haven't been right once so far but they keep coming out with guff because people call them experts and expect them to come out with something. This is unknown territory nobody can honestly claim to know exactly what's going to happen and it's time some people stopped pretending and shutup so the government can get on with it. Hell if some remainers had their way there would be no point in negotiations with the EU because we'd have shown all our cards at the start it's beyond stupidity.

It did enter my mind that there might be an ‘under promise, over deliver’ mission and a pessimistic report was ‘leaked’ so when things come out better than predicted, the government can take full credit come 2022 election time...

I am off for a tin foil hat fitting now.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The trouble is that many Brexiters are in denial. They felt that they would be better off outside the EU but were guided to ignore the overwhelming evidence that said otherwise. Do they now either eat their words or pretend all the analysis is fake news/Remainer conspiracies?

It's the remoaners who are in denial, Andrew. Denial that this country can stand on its own two feet, as incidentally we did pretty well for centuries before we joined the then EEC.

The point you don't want to ponder is that we may actually get a trade deal that includes services when we pull out of the EU, and that on top of that, we will get increased business with the rest of the world. That would make us better off, not worse off.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

It's the remoaners who are in denial, Andrew. Denial that this country can stand on its own two feet, as incidentally we did pretty well for centuries before we joined the then EEC.

The point you don't want to ponder is that we may actually get a trade deal that includes services when we pull out of the EU, and that on top of that, we will get increased business with the rest of the world. That would make us better off, not worse off.

I hope you’re right, I really do! However, the current Brexit policy of the UK 100% guarantees that a deal with the EU will be worse than we have now due to leaving the customs union. Even if we have a complete free trade agreement, non-tariff barriers to trade will be there.

So who do we talk to, to compensate for potential gdp loss from EU trade? The US are playing more and more hardball with their ‘America First’ policy. TTIP has stalled partially due to US demands such as being able to sue governments if their policies harm businesses. Indian have mentioned a loosening of immigration requirements as part of a trade deal. Chile aren’t happy with tariff quota allowances and you can be sure that the rest of South America will follow. South Korea have already said they want to address the balance of trade with the UK before any agreement can be reached.

Liam Fox and his department have some busy times ahead...

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

It's the remoaners who are in denial, Andrew. Denial that this country can stand on its own two feet, as incidentally we did pretty well for centuries before we joined the then EEC.

The point you don't want to ponder is that we may actually get a trade deal that includes services when we pull out of the EU, and that on top of that, we will get increased business with the rest of the world. That would make us better off, not worse off.

No one is saying that the country can't stand on its own feet. It's worth noting that the World has changed technologically, economically and politically since we joined the EU. Countries like China and South Korea now command massive economic strength and the best trade negotiations occur when you have most to offer ie a market of 500m not 65m.
The issue is that the UK will enjoy less influence in Europe (eg Europol which we heavily steer) and the economy will grow less strongly than if we had remained in the EU. Until a form of transport exists that can transport people and goods as rapidly and cheaply between the UK and Europe as between the UK and the rest of the world, trade deals with neighbouring countries will always outweigh those with more distant countries.
If you read the Government's analysis, you would realise that trade with the rest of the world would add less than 1% in GDP whilst leaving the EU would result in a 2%-8% reduction in GDP. That analysis makes uncomfortable reading for some and I appreciate you may wish to turn a blind eye to it.

[Carth]

I've been thinking about this and you know something? I think Andrew is right, we're well up the creek and no paddles to hand.

We import crops from the EU because we don't know how to grow our own. We import meat because we can't rear livestock. Milk and Cheese are imported because we lack the technology to produce it Chickens? heck yeah, we have a country full of those.

Cars, well I guess most of those come from abroad too . . along with TV's, Mobiles, Microwaves and Dishwashers.

Clothes, Carpets, Furniture, all mass produced and shipped in daily.

Service industries . . . well that's just a few computers in an office somewhere, could be anywhere in the world (that's cheap enough).

Banking? see above.

Gas & Electricity comes from . . . oh yeah.

So, after mulling over this little puzzle I realised the only thing we have in this country to generate cash for the economy is . . . speeding fines

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Carth

I've been thinking about this and you know something? I think Andrew is right, we're well up the creek and no paddles to hand.

Without wishing to detract from your humourous post, I would like to emphasise that I don't think we're up the creek with no paddles.

Well, since 51% of our food is imported, we best start growing it tout-suite...

We only produce 38% of the gas we use.

85% of new cars bought in the UK are imported.

[Carth]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Well, since 51% of our food is imported, we best start growing it tout-suite...

I do wonder why & how things like wheat, corn, potatoes and milk are imported, surely it has to be cheaper to use our own produce . . . or is this where the EU tariffs come into play?

Originally Posted by Hugh

We only produce 38% of the gas we use.

Well you've got me there . . . unless much of it comes from Russia? (not EU)

Originally Posted by Hugh

85% of new cars bought in the UK are imported.

And that's a great deal of cars too . . . maybe we should all keep the old model a year or two longer, I'm sure it wouldn't hurt the manufacturers much, and the second hand car market would get a boost

I guess what I'm getting at is . . . if all the trade deals offered to us are really bad, who else are the EU going to sell to?

No10 has confirmed we will be leaving the customs union so no soft brexit as being out of that pretty much gaurantees full exit from the EU happy days .

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

No one is saying that the country can't stand on its own feet. It's worth noting that the World has changed technologically, economically and politically since we joined the EU. Countries like China and South Korea now command massive economic strength and the best trade negotiations occur when you have most to offer ie a market of 500m not 65m.
The issue is that the UK will enjoy less influence in Europe (eg Europol which we heavily steer) and the economy will grow less strongly than if we had remained in the EU. Until a form of transport exists that can transport people and goods as rapidly and cheaply between the UK and Europe as between the UK and the rest of the world, trade deals with neighbouring countries will always outweigh those with more distant countries.
If you read the Government's analysis, you would realise that trade with the rest of the world would add less than 1% in GDP whilst leaving the EU would result in a 2%-8% reduction in GDP. That analysis makes uncomfortable reading for some and I appreciate you may wish to turn a blind eye to it.

Damn! That must mean the New Zealand lamb I had yesterday was off!

Honestly, Andrew! The EU is not the only place we will be getting our goods from post Brexit.

I think you place too much reliance on forecasts when forming your opinions and making your comments, most of which have proved wrong in recent times. They tend to concentrate on negatives without adequate consideration of the potential benefits.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Damn! That must mean the New Zealand lamb I had yesterday was off!

Honestly, Andrew! The EU is not the only place we will be getting our goods from post Brexit.

I think you place too much reliance on forecasts when forming your opinions and making your comments, most of which have proved wrong in recent times. They tend to concentrate on negatives without adequate consideration of the potential benefits.

Lamb is a seasonal product and very popular in Britain and France. Britain in particular likes legs of lamb so supplies of domestic lamb are somewhat limited by the seasons and the fact that sheep only have four legs. To get around this, New Zealand can import over 200,000 tonnes in to the EU tariff free. Limited tariff quotas the EU uses work to fulfill demand while maintaining domestic business. Strangely, we import a lot of New Zealand lamb but also export a lot of lamb to France. Again, this is due to the UK market loving legs of lamb so a lot of the other bits are exported.

How about non-seasonal goods from cars to pharmaceuticals? What about industries such as the automotive industry that have notoriously short supply chains. I heard somewhere that Nissan in the UK holds less than half a days production of parts in stock. The further goods have to come, the more likely there will be delays and the longer those delays will be.

It's certainly not impossible that there are some sweet deals out there but the question is, are they sweeter than what we had?

[Carth]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

I heard somewhere that Nissan in the UK holds less than half a days production of parts in stock. The further goods have to come, the more likely there will be delays and the longer those delays will be.

Where do they come from now? Are they made in 'Europe' somewhere or shipped to Europe and then the UK?

If shipped there's little difference, if made they can build a plant here too

Originally Posted by Carth

Where do they come from now? Are they made in 'Europe' somewhere or shipped to Europe and then the UK?

If shipped there's little difference, if made they can build a plant here too

But they usually have a central plants/suppliers which supplies all their factories in Europe, for economies of scale.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Carth

Where do they come from now? Are they made in 'Europe' somewhere or shipped to Europe and then the UK?

If shipped there's little difference, if made they can build a plant here too

Economies of scale. Suppliers tend to have one factory per continent making eg spark plus, tyres, etc. These are supplied to car plants across Europe. If you had to have one per economy - as you did 100 years ago- you don't gain the benefits of economies of scale that make cars affordable for lots of people.

---------- Post added at 17:59 ---------- Previous post was at 17:54 ----------

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Damn! That must mean the New Zealand lamb I had yesterday was off!

Honestly, Andrew! The EU is not the only place we will be getting our goods from post Brexit.

I think you place too much reliance on forecasts when forming your opinions and making your comments, most of which have proved wrong in recent times. They tend to concentrate on negatives without adequate consideration of the potential benefits.

Jusging by your above post there's a chance it might have been. Nowhere in my post did I say that trade deals with countries were impossible. I just cited the laws of economics which mean that deals with countries closer to hand outweigh those with far away countries. NZ is not a significant trading partner.
What makes you think that forecasts don't consider the potential upsdes? Is this another conspiracy theory or one you have some evidence on?