Brexit (Old)

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

“Could”. But do you think the quality of debate in the last two years, from our politicians and others has been of the quality to engage and enthuse.

It could equally have put some people off. A waste of everyone’s time as millions slip further into poverty. That’s why the “wafer-thin” majority is in a very precarious state.

And these demographics. Yes 700,000 thousand leavers next to deaths door have no slipped the mortal coil to be replaced by Remain teenagers.........it’s very convenient and I would bet the farm on it.

Indeed, and they would revert to project fear. But I can already see the campaigns.

What was it now planes won’t fly the day after no deal Brexit?...... as predicted yes they will.

The EU, as expected, will not do anything that damages their own interests.

I’ve never used a line about planes, so I’m not going to comment on it.

The EU will not do anything to damage their own interests I agree. However where common interests end and the interests of the EU begin isn’t clearly defined, so there’s no guarantee everything will go smoothly in other areas.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Dave42

yes they did why you think vast majority of parliament is remain supporting who put them there the people

They didn’t vote on their individual potential candidates personal views on Brexit.

They voted on party manifestos, both of Tory and Labour manifestos were Leave manifestos.

[Dave42]

Originally Posted by Pierre

They didn’t vote on their individual potential candidates personal views on Brexit.

They voted on party manifestos, both of Tory and Labour manifestos were Leave manifestos.

and as said before lots of manifestoes commitments are ignored

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

What is an acceptable margin then?

I’ve framed my stance on how these things should be managed over a longer term elsewhere.

I do however believe when politicians frame things as once in a generation they hope for decisive results in excess of 60-40.

Again my opinion isn’t really of any consequence as to whether a second referendum happens or not.

Most likely as least 1.3 million

Between general elections voter swings often far exceed that figure.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

I’ve never used a line about planes, so I’m not going to comment on it.

Ok but I will directly put to you that right up until days ago, Project Fear on the Remain side we’re citing that planes wouldn’t fly amongst others. The EU have made concessions in the event of no deal for up to a year in areas that would impact them.

Proof that in the event of no deal many things could be negotiated very quickly.

My expectation is, that as no deal looms, the EU will move ( or do something) about the backstop. It still may not get through, but I can’t see the EU not moving.

But May has to do more to prove to the EU that if they move, she can get the deal over the line.

She has a lot to do.

[1andrew1]

Good to see Putin is not too modest to share some advice for Theresa May.

Not to implement Brexit now would be to repudiate “direct democracy”, he said, adding: “Is it democracy not to care about this Brexit and continue voting until someone is happy with the result?”

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a8692606.html

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Dave42

and as said before lots of manifestoes commitments are ignored

Yes but manifestos are publicised, manifestos are what prospective candidates run on.

I don’t recall all the individual candidates from all parties advertising what their own views on Brexit were.

I recall all Tory and Labour candidates saying they would respect the result of the referendum.

[Dave42]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Ok but I will directly put to you that right up until days ago, Project Fear on the Remain side we’re citing that planes wouldn’t fly amongst others. The EU have made concessions in the event of no deal for up to a year in areas that would impact them.

Proof that in the event of no deal many things could be negotiated very quickly.

My expectation is, that as no deal looms, the EU will move ( or do something) about the backstop. It still may not get through, but I can’t see the EU not moving.

But May has to do more to prove to the EU that if they move, she can get the deal over the line.

She has a lot to do.

you do know article 50 is legal document about leaving EU right read paragraph 3


Article 50


1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

there in legal we legal form text we leave every treaty include one on aviation ect in a no deal Brexit so your wrong

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

I do however believe when politicians frame things as once in a generation they hope for decisive results in excess of 60-40.
.

I actually agree for decisions of this nature a 50/50 vote is too simplistic. It needed to be determined that the overwhelming will of the nation was to move in a certain direction that is beyond question.

The biggest issue with Brexit, is not that leave won, but they won by a perceived marginal victory and therefore it was open season on the result.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Ok but I will directly put to you that right up until days ago, Project Fear on the Remain side we’re citing that planes wouldn’t fly amongst others. The EU have made concessions in the event of no deal for up to a year in areas that would impact them.

Proof that in the event of no deal many things could be negotiated very quickly.

My expectation is, that as no deal looms, the EU will move ( or do something) about the backstop. It still may not get through, but I can’t see the EU not moving.

But May has to do more to prove to the EU that if they move, she can get the deal over the line.

She has a lot to do.

Planes fly in two directions.

EU citizens fly here, we fly to the EU. It’s not a quick win for the EU to cost their own airlines business and inconvenience their own citizens in the process.

Some areas will be more leveraged.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Dave42

you do know article 50 is legal document about leaving EU right read paragraph 3


Article 50


1. Any Member State may decide to withdraw from the Union in accordance with its own constitutional requirements.

2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.

3. The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period.

4. For the purposes of paragraphs 2 and 3, the member of the European Council or of the Council representing the withdrawing Member State shall not participate in the discussions of the European Council or Council or in decisions concerning it.

A qualified majority shall be defined in accordance with Article 238(3)(b) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union.

5. If a State which has withdrawn from the Union asks to rejoin, its request shall be subject to the procedure referred to in Article 49.

there in legal we legal form text we leave every treaty include one on aviation ect in a no deal Brexit so your wrong

http://www.cityam.com/270797/flights...-event-no-deal

[jfman]

Hang on if I read that right the EU can change their mind after 12 months? (This isn’t an aspect I’ve been following). It reads like something the EU are parking rather than resolving. Like the backstop.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by jfman

Hang on if I read that right the EU can change their mind after 12 months? (This isn’t an aspect I’ve been following). It reads like something the EU are parking rather than resolving. Like the backstop.

If I were you I'd start following it as what has previously been put out by "Project Fear" is wrong.

Airspace accessibilty works both ways there are many transatlantic EU flights that need access to UK airspace. They can either change their mind after 12mths and go by longer routes or come to an aviation deal.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by pip08456

If I were you I'd start following it as what has previously been put out by "Project Fear" is wrong.

Airspace accessibilty works both ways there are many transatlantic EU flights that need access to UK airspace. They can either change their mind after 12mths and go by longer routes or come to an aviation deal.

That’s not what the article says though. It only says we have a short term interim agreement. Which makes sense, this is the kind of thing people would blame the EU for which given the chances of a second referendum they can’t risk antagonising the public as flights are arranged months in advance.

Something with a shorter lead in is more likely to be where it goes wrong first. Also somewhere the blame is more likely to fall on the UK Government for being unprepared.

[denphone]

Another Cabinet minister likely to quit cabinet if UK heads for no-deal.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ds-for-no-deal

The justice secretary, David Gauke, has said he would find it “very difficult” to remain in Theresa May’s government if the UK appeared on course to crash out of the European Union without a deal.

The prime minister is battling to maintain cabinet discipline as senior ministers set out rival plans for dealing with the potential rejection of her Brexit plan next month.