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Old 15-03-2019, 18:40   #8656
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Re: Brexit

The common market is what it was called at the time. I’m not making a value judgment, just calling it by its name.

Remember that the withdrawal agreement is only designed to cover the next 2 years and the political statement has no legal force. The most important thing that will be achieved by Teresa May’s Deal, if it can get through Parliament, is to establish that “Brexit means Brexit” - we are leaving the customs union and the single market (which, further to your point, is less about a single selling space and more about a single set of regulations).
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Old 15-03-2019, 18:44   #8657
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Re: Brexit

Snap back to what?

We don’t have the export markets we had in the 50s and 60s (hangovers from the days of Empire), and with modern JIT (Just In Time) production methods, the trade patterns of the world have irrevocably changed from pre-EEC days.
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Old 15-03-2019, 19:53   #8658
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Re: Brexit

The DUP love being the centre to of attention. You can see them revelling in it. Trouble is TM needs a few more votes than they can offer....
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Old 15-03-2019, 20:22   #8659
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr K View Post
The DUP love being the centre to of attention. You can see them revelling in it. Trouble is TM needs a few more votes than they can offer....
MV3 will be close, and I wouldn’t bet against it going through. The ERG seems to be starting to get the message that this is as hard a Brexit as its going to be.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47584616
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Old 15-03-2019, 20:23   #8660
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris View Post
Much about our trade patterns had to change, quickly, in order to fit us into the common market, which is part of the reason why many Brexiteers are so confident that our trade patterns will relatively easily snap back into their natural shape once we’re out.
What is their natural shape? The gravity model suggests that greater distances weaken the attractiveness of trade and proximity increases it. Therefore, a high proportion of our trade should be with the EU and not with former colonies like Australia and Canada.
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Old 15-03-2019, 20:35   #8661
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Re: Brexit

It's easy from here on in. Extend article 50 for a short period of time then wait until the definite definite last minute and tell them we really really mean it this time and they'll give us the easiest trade deal in history. They need us more than we need them. They'll be begging us for a deal.
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Old 15-03-2019, 20:56   #8662
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris View Post
MV3 will be close, and I wouldn’t bet against it going through. The ERG seems to be starting to get the message that this is as hard a Brexit as its going to be.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47584616
Even with the ERG and DUP, backing them, the Govt. lost a vote the other night...

Suspect they'll squeak it through somehow as most MPs will be bored by now. So we'll get a Brexit that will make us worse off and subservient to the EU, perhaps forever, with no voting rights. Party on Brexiteers !
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Old 15-03-2019, 21:21   #8663
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman View Post
It's easy from here on in. Extend article 50 for a short period of time then wait until the definite definite last minute and tell them we really really mean it this time and they'll give us the easiest trade deal in history. They need us more than we need them. They'll be begging us for a deal.
I'm with you on this, they really really really really need us.

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Old 15-03-2019, 21:25   #8664
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Re: Brexit

More bribe money for the DUP sounds like an extortion racket more like.
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Old 15-03-2019, 21:36   #8665
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 View Post
What is their natural shape? The gravity model suggests that greater distances weaken the attractiveness of trade and proximity increases it. Therefore, a high proportion of our trade should be with the EU and not with former colonies like Australia and Canada.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_model_of_trade

A "suggestion" does not validate the Gravity Model. The referenced article has much to say on this especially the countervailing viewpoint.


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Old 15-03-2019, 21:39   #8666
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris View Post
MV3 will be close, and I wouldn’t bet against it going through. The ERG seems to be starting to get the message that this is as hard a Brexit as its going to be.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47584616
I'm inclined to agree.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman View Post
It's easy from here on in. Extend article 50 for a short period of time then wait until the definite definite last minute and tell them we really really mean it this time and they'll give us the easiest trade deal in history. They need us more than we need them. They'll be begging us for a deal.
You can thank the lily livered remain MP's and there endless efforts to thwart Brexit for that.
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Old 15-03-2019, 21:52   #8667
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Re: Brexit

It’d have been harder to thwart if it was a single vision.

However it isn’t, it’s a vast range of different views and ideologies from the dog whistle xenophobia, extreme unregulated capitalism, nationalism and even some socialists. Each wants and expects different post-Brexit outcomes.

You’ve even got Liam Fox and David Davis on one side, Mogg, Johnson and Raab on the other. Unless the Conservative party is the only place these divisions exist then leavers have different and often mutually exclusive desires.

The most popular outcome expressed as anything other than a binary choice is to remain. It’s up to leavers to unify their position.
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Old 15-03-2019, 21:54   #8668
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by pip08456 View Post
I'm inclined to agree.



You can thank the lily livered remain MP's and there endless efforts to thwart Brexit for that.


Ah yes it’s the remainders fault, not the fact that the EU hold the high ground, the fact that we’re the ones leaving but attempting to dictate terms. You were told this is what would happen. you were warned that we would not be in strong position but you chose to dismiss it as ‘project fear’

Give your head a shake, we were never ever going to get a good withdrawal agreement.
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Old 15-03-2019, 22:01   #8669
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman View Post
It’d have been harder to thwart if it was a single vision.

However it isn’t, it’s a vast range of different views and ideologies from the dog whistle xenophobia, extreme unregulated capitalism, nationalism and even some socialists. Each wants and expects different post-Brexit outcomes.

You’ve even got Liam Fox and David Davis on one side, Mogg, Johnson and Raab on the other. Unless the Conservative party is the only place these divisions exist then leavers have different and often mutually exclusive desires.

The most popular outcome expressed as anything other than a binary choice is to remain. It’s up to leavers to unify their position.
I’ve seen some intellectual acrobatics on this forum but that’s truly special.

Political consensus is always a coalition and a compromise. Leavers may wish to get various things out of Brexit, but they all agreed that Brexit was the way to achieve their aims. They formed a coalition and won a majority. That’s how every other part of our political process works.
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Old 15-03-2019, 22:02   #8670
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Re: Brexit

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sephiroth View Post

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravity_model_of_trade

A "suggestion" does not validate the Gravity Model. The referenced article has much to say on this especially the countervailing viewpoint.


It's pretty accepted. I've previously posted links.
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