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Coronavirus
View Poll Results: When you become eligible for the Covid Vaccine, would you take it?
Yes 73 85.88%
No 6 7.06%
Unsure 6 7.06%
Voters: 85. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 08-04-2021, 00:10   #4681
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman View Post
Steve Baker is out retweeting folk scaremongering about vaccinating kids.

That’s reassuring that our Conservative backbench MPs have the health of the nation at heart. Remember, as always, there’s no economic recovery without solving the health issue. ONS data shows kids driving all but the first wave (data not available), and no doubt the next one too as schools return with pitiful non-pharmaceutical interventions.

---------- Post added at 23:45 ---------- Previous post was at 23:37 ----------



Once the European data became so compelling the game was up. No amount of selective interpretation or skewing the data was ever going to allow the charade to continue.

It’s laughable really to think so-called credible scientists peddled the line a mere few weeks ago that there were less of these rare types of clots among those vaccinated than would be expected to be seen in a population of similar size. Including a release on the MHRA website that lasted a mere two days before being taken down.

The timeline can be traced from 15 March to the Telegraph article on 30 March. At some point between those dates the 15 March statements became demonstrably false to such a clear extent the story was put out on that basis.
Usually there would be substance in your posts that I could break down and argue against, or for and drive the debate forward.

There is nothing in that diatribe above, nothing.
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Old 08-04-2021, 00:19   #4682
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre View Post
Usually there would be substance in your posts that I could break down and argue against, or for and drive the debate forward.

There is nothing in that diatribe above, nothing.
Now, now Pierre. Your inability to argue a counterpoint isn’t something to be ashamed of but unsurprising given the link you posted the other day about it being a conspiracy against AZ because it’s the cheap vaccine. Politicians meddling over science was the claim. Ironically it appears our politicians been doing that all along, including a plea to suppress the Channel 4 story.

I like the fact IDS loves freedom that much, opposing vaccine passports, he doesn’t want the population to have informed consent when taking the vaccine. The contradiction is hilarious really. Unsurprising, but hilarious.

Last edited by jfman; 08-04-2021 at 00:23.
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Old 08-04-2021, 01:51   #4683
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Re: Coronavirus

All this, yet still many people think the 'experts' are right every time . . . about everything
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Old 08-04-2021, 09:05   #4684
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Re: Coronavirus

OK then

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman View Post
Steve Baker is out retweeting folk scaremongering about vaccinating ONS data shows kids driving all but the first wave (data not available), and no doubt the next one too as schools return with pitiful non-pharmaceutical interventions.
But

Quote:
But staff, parents and pupils can feel reassured by current evidence that shows transmission of COVID-19 in schools remains low.
And

Quote:
infection rates among primary school staff and students was extremely low (less than 5%).
What about

Quote:
The study involved asymptomatic testing of 10,000 students and staff across England and despite a slight over-representation in areas with higher infection rates, the study showed that infection rates in schools were low.
https://publichealthmatters.blog.gov...id-in-schools/

Again, once everybody that needs to be vaccinated has been vaccinated we should just get on. Under 18’s being vaccinated will be at the discretion of the parents.

Being vaccinated should be/is a matter of personal choice.

Nobody should be discriminated against for not having the vaccine.

If we stick to those four principles, i don’t see what the issue would be
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Old 08-04-2021, 09:21   #4685
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Re: Coronavirus

Back on the blood clotting risk thing, I found this paper from the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge University which is a very good discussion of the risks and benefits for the AZ vaccine in different age groups depending on the prevalence of COVID infections in the population.

The top figure is the standout one. At current infection rates, the risk of blood clots of the type seen in vaccinated patients in the 20-29 year age range is higher than the risk of ICU admission due to COVID.

If infection rates rise, then the risk/benefit swings towards vaccination but of course we want to go towards lower rates...
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Old 08-04-2021, 09:27   #4686
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Re: Coronavirus

With the best will in the world Pierre you're making the same false assumptions as the herd immunity crowd last March.

Transmission in schools remains low while community prevalence is low. It's inevitable that infection, given time without mitigation, will spread and infect significant proportions of the school age population and into the wider population - among those unvaccinated and where vaccine efficacy has waned.

It's then an absolute inevitability that at a later date we will be spending more time, money and effort in lockdowns against an escape variant.

I agree being vaccinated should be a matter of choice. However if too many people choose not to the herd immunity threshold is never hit and we spend years firefighting.

If we say it's not safe to vaccinate teenagers and those younger why would someone in their early 20s volunteer to take it? Suddenly HIT requires almost 100% uptake of a 90% vaccine - something we've not seen against new variants.

If we get 70% uptake of a 70% vaccine then mutant variants are an absolute inevitability.

Vaccinate the vulnerable is 2021s 'shield the vulnerable'. While it's rational to want HIT to be achieved by other people taking the vaccine - personal risk becomes zero - the problem is where everyone chooses to be rational at an individual level.

---------- Post added at 09:27 ---------- Previous post was at 09:23 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx View Post
Back on the blood clotting risk thing, I found this paper from the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at Cambridge University which is a very good discussion of the risks and benefits for the AZ vaccine in different age groups depending on the prevalence of COVID infections in the population.

The top figure is the standout one. At current infection rates, the risk of blood clots of the type seen in vaccinated patients in the 20-29 year age range is higher than the risk of ICU admission due to COVID.

If infection rates rise, then the risk/benefit swings towards vaccination but of course we want to go towards lower rates...
So a rational individual doesn't take the vaccine but hopes everyone else does. Especially whatever politician was leaning on Channel 4 to suppress the story because it could slow easing of restrictions by a mere two weeks.
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Old 08-04-2021, 10:57   #4687
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth View Post
All this, yet still many people think the 'experts' are right every time . . . about everything
No, they’re not - but they’re right more often about things because they base their decisions & recommendations on science & experience, and are willing to change their decisions & recommendations when new evidence comes to light.

No one is right all the time about everything - but I assume you trust your doctor’s diagnosis over some random in the street?
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Old 08-04-2021, 11:00   #4688
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman View Post
With the best will in the world Pierre you're making the same false assumptions as the herd immunity crowd last March.

Transmission in schools remains low while community prevalence is low. It's inevitable that infection, given time without mitigation, will spread and infect significant proportions of the school age population and into the wider population - among those unvaccinated and where vaccine efficacy has waned.

It's then an absolute inevitability that at a later date we will be spending more time, money and effort in lockdowns against an escape variant.

I agree being vaccinated should be a matter of choice. However if too many people choose not to the herd immunity threshold is never hit and we spend years firefighting.

If we say it's not safe to vaccinate teenagers and those younger why would someone in their early 20s volunteer to take it? Suddenly HIT requires almost 100% uptake of a 90% vaccine - something we've not seen against new variants.

If we get 70% uptake of a 70% vaccine then mutant variants are an absolute inevitability.

Vaccinate the vulnerable is 2021s 'shield the vulnerable'. While it's rational to want HIT to be achieved by other people taking the vaccine - personal risk becomes zero - the problem is where everyone chooses to be rational at an individual level.

---------- Post added at 09:27 ---------- Previous post was at 09:23 ----------



So a rational individual doesn't take the vaccine but hopes everyone else does. Especially whatever politician was leaning on Channel 4 to suppress the story because it could slow easing of restrictions by a mere two weeks.
Talking of herd immunity.

Quote:
Britain will achieve herd immunity on Monday

UCL modelling says number of people with protection either through vaccination or previous infection will hit 73.4 per cent on April 12.

According to the UCL results, published this week, the number of people who have protection against the virus either through vaccination or previous infection will hit 73.4 per cent on April 12 – enough to tip the country into herd immunity.

The number is in stark contrast to the modelling released by Imperial College this week, which suggested there was just 34 per cent protection by the end of March.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...eshold-monday/
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Old 08-04-2021, 11:03   #4689
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman View Post
With the best will in the world Pierre you're making the same false assumptions as the herd immunity crowd last March.

Transmission in schools remains low while community prevalence is low. It's inevitable that infection, given time without mitigation, will spread and infect significant proportions of the school age population and into the wider population - among those unvaccinated and where vaccine efficacy has waned.

It's then an absolute inevitability that at a later date we will be spending more time, money and effort in lockdowns against an escape variant.

I agree being vaccinated should be a matter of choice. However if too many people choose not to the herd immunity threshold is never hit and we spend years firefighting.

If we say it's not safe to vaccinate teenagers and those younger why would someone in their early 20s volunteer to take it? Suddenly HIT requires almost 100% uptake of a 90% vaccine - something we've not seen against new variants.

If we get 70% uptake of a 70% vaccine then mutant variants are an absolute inevitability.

Vaccinate the vulnerable is 2021s 'shield the vulnerable'. While it's rational to want HIT to be achieved by other people taking the vaccine - personal risk becomes zero - the problem is where everyone chooses to be rational at an individual level.

---------- Post added at 09:27 ---------- Previous post was at 09:23 ----------



So a rational individual doesn't take the vaccine but hopes everyone else does. Especially whatever politician was leaning on Channel 4 to suppress the story because it could slow easing of restrictions by a mere two weeks.
Yeah, this is where health messaging becomes difficult and can also be an illuminating window into the British pysche. If we look back at the start of this whole thing, the messaging was 'protect the NHS'. The NHS polls well in this country as most people are proud of the NHS as a British institution. Eventually though, messaging gets old and things change and went from protecting the NHS to a more fearful message. What is interesting however is the fearful message wasn't out ward looking - 'behave yourselves or you will kill someone's nan' but more a 'you really don't want to get COVID'.

Masks are a great example of this. The evidence of masks protecting the user is low but the evidence of masks protecting other is much stronger. This was picked up by anti mask people early on as evidence masks don't work which is somewhat true but only for the person wearing them. Mask wearing protects others. So why isn't mask wearing pitched as a civic duty? Do the people putting together the messaging think that we wouldn't care about protecting others or do they know that we wouldn't care about protecting others? The best case scenario is the first but I fear it is the second.

This is where we get to vaccines. The absolute necessity of vaccines for the protection 18-30 years olds is probably low (again, long COVID excepted) but, as jfman said, we need to get the uptake up for herd immunity or at least to lower the Re value. Matt Hancock said this morning on the BBC that is was your 'patriotic duty' to be vaccinated which is arguable (in that I don't want to argue about this!) but it is definitely a civic duty for younger people to be vaccinated to help protect the older population who either didn't seroconvert or couldn't be jabbed.

We tend to get more right wing as we age. Left wing politics is more around collective responsibility in contrast with more personal responsibility on the right side of things. Should we be pitching vaccination as a duty to society when the time comes for younger people to get jabbed?
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Old 08-04-2021, 11:20   #4690
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh View Post
No, they’re not - but they’re right more often about things because they base their decisions & recommendations on science & experience, and are willing to change their decisions & recommendations when new evidence comes to light.

No one is right all the time about everything - but I assume you trust your doctor’s diagnosis over some random in the street/
Actually no I don't. All my doctor wants to do is prescribe me numerous tablets based on the rather shady 5 minute 'telephone consultation' that is the norm nowadays. I haven't seen a doctor in a year - in fact I'm close to telling the practice to get stuffed and simply use the hospital casualty dept. instead

I guess you could also call me an expert in 'not believing everything an expert says', although I've never published any papers on it
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Old 08-04-2021, 11:41   #4691
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman View Post
So a rational individual doesn't take the vaccine but hopes everyone else does.
Only in the absence of other vaccines. Ideally you'd get non-AZ, and not care what everyone else gets as long as they get one.

Just wondering: Are all three approved vaccines still considered 100% effective against serious illness? If not, any difference probably outweighs the blood clot risk.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Telegraph
Britain will achieve herd immunity on Monday
How convenient!
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Old 08-04-2021, 11:51   #4692
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by jonbxx View Post
Yeah, this is where health messaging becomes difficult and can also be an illuminating window into the British pysche. If we look back at the start of this whole thing, the messaging was 'protect the NHS'. The NHS polls well in this country as most people are proud of the NHS as a British institution. Eventually though, messaging gets old and things change and went from protecting the NHS to a more fearful message. What is interesting however is the fearful message wasn't out ward looking - 'behave yourselves or you will kill someone's nan' but more a 'you really don't want to get COVID'.

Masks are a great example of this. The evidence of masks protecting the user is low but the evidence of masks protecting other is much stronger. This was picked up by anti mask people early on as evidence masks don't work which is somewhat true but only for the person wearing them. Mask wearing protects others. So why isn't mask wearing pitched as a civic duty? Do the people putting together the messaging think that we wouldn't care about protecting others or do they know that we wouldn't care about protecting others? The best case scenario is the first but I fear it is the second.

This is where we get to vaccines. The absolute necessity of vaccines for the protection 18-30 years olds is probably low (again, long COVID excepted) but, as jfman said, we need to get the uptake up for herd immunity or at least to lower the Re value. Matt Hancock said this morning on the BBC that is was your 'patriotic duty' to be vaccinated which is arguable (in that I don't want to argue about this!) but it is definitely a civic duty for younger people to be vaccinated to help protect the older population who either didn't seroconvert or couldn't be jabbed.

We tend to get more right wing as we age. Left wing politics is more around collective responsibility in contrast with more personal responsibility on the right side of things. Should we be pitching vaccination as a duty to society when the time comes for younger people to get jabbed?
Or you simply change the dynamics of the question.

“What’s in it for me?”

This is where vaccine passports/certification presents a significant opportunity to shift vaccination from being ‘for the collective good’ to in someone’s personal interest. That’s why they are absolutely inevitable - to inconvenience those who want to sit back and opt out of the 70%+.

---------- Post added at 11:51 ---------- Previous post was at 11:47 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by spiderplant View Post
Only in the absence of other vaccines. Ideally you'd get non-AZ, and not care what everyone else gets as long as they get one.

Just wondering: Are all three approved vaccines still considered 100% effective against serious illness? If not, any difference probably outweighs the blood clot risk.

How convenient!
You’re assuming we are being given all the information.

With political pressure from Tory backbenchers, and arguably Government itself, to prop up confidence in the vaccination drive to speed up easing restrictions the legitimate question remains would they tell us if any red flags arose?

I’d contest that the evidence from the MHRA to date suggests they would not.
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Old 08-04-2021, 14:34   #4693
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Re: Coronavirus

My second JAB is Saturday 10th (Oxford vaccine)
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Old 08-04-2021, 14:39   #4694
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by spiderplant View Post
Only in the absence of other vaccines. Ideally you'd get non-AZ, and not care what everyone else gets as long as they get one.

Just wondering: Are all three approved vaccines still considered 100% effective against serious illness? If not, any difference probably outweighs the blood clot risk.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Telegraph
Britain will achieve herd immunity on Monday
How convenient!
Source material for the herd immunity claim - lots of caveats...

Quote:
Much like long-term weather forecasts, the ensuing predictions should not be taken too seriously because there is an inherent (although quantified) uncertainty about underlying epidemiological and socio-behavioural variables.
Quote:
The current estimates of the herd immunity threshold show that it has risen substantially since last July and is predicted to fall again during the spring. Clearly, there is a substantial amount of uncertainty about these long-term forecasts — as indicated by the wide credible intervals. Part of this uncertainty is due to the fluctuations in transmission risk and mobility.
https://www.fil.ion.ucl.ac.uk/spm/co...ing_040421.pdf

---------- Post added at 14:39 ---------- Previous post was at 14:37 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth View Post
Actually no I don't. All my doctor wants to do is prescribe me numerous tablets based on the rather shady 5 minute 'telephone consultation' that is the norm nowadays. I haven't seen a doctor in a year - in fact I'm close to telling the practice to get stuffed and simply use the hospital casualty dept. instead

I guess you could also call me an expert in 'not believing everything an expert says', although I've never published any papers on it
Sorry to hear you’ve got a duff medic - never good.

Can’t you change doctor/practice?
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Old 08-04-2021, 15:20   #4695
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Re: Coronavirus

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman View Post
Or you simply change the dynamics of the question.

“What’s in it for me?”

This is where vaccine passports/certification presents a significant opportunity to shift vaccination from being ‘for the collective good’ to in someone’s personal interest. That’s why they are absolutely inevitable - to inconvenience those who want to sit back and opt out of the 70%+.
Time unleash the Nuffield Intervention Ladder By my reckoning, we're half up the ladder at 'Guide choice by changing the default policy' as every adult is being offered a jab by default.
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