Humza’s Hassles (a.k.a. Goodbye Greens)

So much going on here it’s hard to know how best to characterise it.

This morning, Humza Yousaf, First Minister of Scotland and leader of the SNP, sacked all his Green Party cabinet ministers. Basically, he ended the SNP/Green coalition. Why would he do such a thing, leaving himself with a minority government at a time the SNP’s popularity is on the wane in the polls? Because the Greens were about to jump anyway, so he thought he’d look like the strongman if he pushed them first. Which he did, at an emergency cabinet meeting at porridge-o’clock this morning. (Or roll’n’sausage o’clock, take your pick, I’m not fussy).

The Green Party has talked at length at how they’ve been betrayed over Scotland’s abandonment of some of its net zero pledges. I have a sliver of sympathy for them, limited by a generous dose of “Duh? What did you think Nicola brought you into coalition for? Because it wasn’t to get your programme through.”

What they’ve been less vocal about over the last 48 hours is the realisation that their near religious belief in the ideology of the gendered soul (Trans Rights Activism, to you) is inevitably going to come under scrutiny thanks to the tenacity and hard work of Dr Hilary Cass, whose findings are so serious the Scottish government can no longer bury its head in the sand and pretend that conducting unevidenced medical experiments on vulnerable children is just an English problem. Policy is about to unfold in a way not necessarily to the Greens’ advantage.

So they have gone, the SNP is a minority administration, and the Tories have alread called a vote of no confidence in Humza Useless. I wonder what happens next.

[jfman]

The Greens statements that Yousaf can’t be trusted ring hollow if a mere week later they don’t vote against his government. Which gives him some awkward numbers next week, but it’s alright he says it was “war gamed” as a possibility.

Do the Greens think this is a good time to force an election? Although I’m no ally to their TRA positions the cult has some following, would they be presented with a better opportunity to capture a larger share of pro-independence centre-left voters given the SNPs legal problems? Would working with a minority Labour government give them more sway if they could increase their seats?

All quite messy over the next week at least, and probably much longer.

Hell hath no fury like a woman scorned, or a Green politician dumped out of a coalition agreement by Humza Yousaf.

Scottish Greens confirm they will vote no confidence in the wee man when the motion is called: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cz5d...8e08ed6a4#post

[jfman]

Out with the begging bowl to Ash Regan.

He is so bad at politics it's amazing.

[Itshim]

Originally Posted by Damien

He is so bad at politics it's amazing.

Copying the fool that labour chose in Wales . Seems that shooting oneself in the foot is order of the day

[jfman]

Apparently the VONC in Yousaf is as an individual, not in the government as a whole. So it wouldn’t be binding on him to resign if he wanted to brazen it out.

Originally Posted by jfman

Out with the begging bowl to Ash Regan.

Alex Salmond was on PM earlier saying exactly this. I can’t believe I thought there were limits to how smug he could be.

---------- Post added at 19:23 ---------- Previous post was at 19:15 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

Apparently the VONC in Yousaf is as an individual, not in the government as a whole. So it wouldn’t be binding on him to resign if he wanted to brazen it out.

Given that sooner or later the SNP would have to bring a budget for approval by parliament, refusing to resign would seem to be enormously counterproductive. Prior to that, of course, Humza could expect to be questioned relentlessly by the media about his lame duck status.

[jfman]

I’ll defer to this:

Originally Posted by Damien

He is so bad at politics it's amazing.

Originally Posted by jfman

I’ll defer to this:

QFT.

He slagged off Ash Regan, now he needs her vote to stay in office. And while she’s claiming not to have decided what to do yet, she’s made it pretty clear what her price is by choosing yesterday evening to have a cosy tweet-fest with JK Rowling about the protection of sex-based rights for women and girls - the very issue on which she left the SNP in the first place.

I hope he does a deal and stays in office. It will look desperate and cause a civil war within the SNP.

The longer this exploding clown car of a government continues the funnier it is and the more damage it does to their long-term politics.

[jfman]

It remains to be seen how much damage it does to independence which no-one realistically expects anyway in the near to medium term. The SNP are a party of devolution as long as it elects them as there’s no credible reason to prioritise the gender reforms they have other than to scuttle the ship.

The big tent (reference intended) was bound to fail eventually and a civil war is inevitable.

What makes me think Yousaf might cling on is the absence of an obvious continuity Sturgeon candidate. That could buy time until the next budget, which will be around the UK General Election which many think would finish him anyway.

Would the next SNP leader want to kick off against a backdrop of campervans and iPads? Probably not.

---------- Post added at 10:35 ---------- Previous post was at 09:52 ----------



EDIT:

Scottish Labour will table a proper vote of no confidence in the Scottish Government later today.

Originally Posted by jfman

Scottish Labour will table a proper vote of no confidence in the Scottish Government later today.

I guess that puts to bed any lingering doubt about whether Labour seriously thought their interests were served by potentially provoking an election in Scotland months before one across the whole UK. I guess they do think it’s worth it. Also nice that they’ve taken some constitutional advice before deciding who it is they have no confidence in

[jfman]

Two slightly competing thoughts flying around one being that the Greens wouldn’t vote to bring the SNP down but would to bring Humza down. New leader and new FM.

The other that the Greens like their noses in the trough too much and will back down anyway, rather than chance Yousaf concedes to Regan.

This would keep some Green policies (at least notionally) on the agenda.

There are too many variables because not everyone is acting entirely rationally. Humza has no tactical awareness whatsoever and seems to have been blindsided by all of this. The Greens, having indicated they were likely to throw a tantrum next month, are shocked - shocked, I tell you - that someone else got there first and properly threw their knitted hemp rattle out of the pram in a way that would make them look even more mental if they do actually vote to save Humza next week. Though, looking even more mental doesn’t seem to be of great concern to the Greens so who knows what will happen.

I think Labour’s interests are served by the chaos regardless of the outcome because all the seats they want to win for Westminster and eventually for Holyrood are presently in SNP hands. Whether they take them now or later is unlikely to be a pressing matter and in any case they might prefer to spread the cost of their campaigning rather than have it all happening this year.