Brexit discussion

Well neither you or me know everything that's going on Andrew and right now the EU is trying to play hardball and is not even trying to reach a deal and as long as they have their merry band of defenders in the UK they see no reason to be realistic in negotiations. Fortunately the reality of brexit's impact on EU member states economies is starting to become clear and with increasing support within the european parliament for a fair deal that works for both sides things will start to change rapidly in the near future. What's also becoming clear is the approach of the EU to make this a process no other member state would risk in future is backfiring on them increasing anger towards the EU rather then making member states fear taking the same path the UK has and as usual in trying to be clever the senior management of the EU has badly judged the reaction and done damage to confidence.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

Well neither you or me know everything that's going on Andrew and right now the EU is trying to play hardball and is not even trying to reach a deal and as long as they have their merry band of defenders in the UK they see no reason to be realistic in negotiations. Fortunately the reality of brexit's impact on EU member states economies is starting to become clear and with increasing support within the european parliament for a fair deal that works for both sides things will start to change rapidly in the near future. What's also becoming clear is the approach of the EU to make this a process no other member state would risk in future is backfiring on them increasing anger towards the EU rather then making member states fear taking the same path the UK has and as usual in trying to be clever the senior management of the EU has badly judged the reaction and done damage to confidence.

Brexiters' whimsical theory that the EU needs us more than we need the EU has been comprehensively kicked into touch.
But one issue that prevents the UK getting an amazing trade deal is that the trade agreements it has with third countries like Canada do not allow this. And WTO rules bring certain constraints too that no amount of wishful thinking can change. Nor is any other member state about to leave any day now.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Brexiters' whimsical theory that the EU needs us more than we need the EU has been comprehensively kicked into touch.
But one issue that prevents the UK getting an amazing trade deal is that the trade agreements it has with third countries like Canada do not allow this. And WTO rules bring certain constraints too that no amount of wishful thinking can change. Nor is any other member state about to leave any day now.

My God, Andrew, you sound as if you need a good strong dose of anti-depressants. Gloom, gloom and even more gloom.

Has it escaped you that the EU exports rather more to us than we do to the EU?

We will get a tariff free trade deal and the border issues will be settled. We can debate the detail to the nth degree, but it is up to the two sides to come up with the best solution for both. We will just have to wait and see what that will be, but a solution to this will be found. This is not the impossible challenge you make it out to be.

Peers in thread, yep see it it’s Sonny and Cher time, Groundhog Day.

335 days to go to Brexit Day. That number shrinking nicely.

Oh for gods sake Andrew it isn't a whimsical theory the German's just got a report on the impact of brexit on the German economy and it made sobering reading other nations will be getting their reports in the coming few months. This complete blind defence you make of the EU flies in the face of what's actually going on and how things are changing. I've never said we're going to get a fantastic deal but we will get one that we can live with and that will benefit both sides.

[jonbxx]

So German forecast papers are to be take; seriously but UK ones are not as we don’t know what’s going to happen in the future?

If we take the example of Germany, 6.3% of Germany’s exports go to the UK (https://tradingeconomics.com/germany/exports-by-country) 11% of the UK’s exports go to Germany (Https://tradingeconomics.com/united-...rts-by-country) However, we are negotiating with a trading bloc and that’s 50% of our total exports. I am struggling to find data for intra EU exports to the UK as a percentage and might need to fire up Excel for this!

Yes, there will be an impact in all countries we deal with of course. The question is how big an impact? Whoever has the least to lose has the strongest hand and it does look very much like the EU is in that position at the moment.

In other news - Brexit: Britain set to offer EU immigration deal 'very similar' to free movement If immigration was your main reason to vote leave, this whole shebang May have been a waste of time. All the immigration with none of the benefits

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

Oh for gods sake Andrew it isn't a whimsical theory the German's just got a report on the impact of brexit on the German economy and it made sobering reading other nations will be getting their reports in the coming few months. This complete blind defence you make of the EU flies in the face of what's actually going on and how things are changing. I've never said we're going to get a fantastic deal but we will get one that we can live with and that will benefit both sides.

Talking our hardworking British civil servants down again Rizzy like people talked the British motor industry down I see.
So, analysis from British civil servants must be wrong but analysis from the Germans must be right?

Oh don't even bother with the whole "talking down hard working civil servants" crap given you've spent so long talking the whole country down i understand now why you favour the EU your both full of it.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

My God, Andrew, you sound as if you need a good strong dose of anti-depressants. Gloom, gloom and even more gloom.

Has it escaped you that the EU exports rather more to us than we do to the EU?

We will get a tariff free trade deal and the border issues will be settled. We can debate the detail to the nth degree, but it is up to the two sides to come up with the best solution for both. We will just have to wait and see what that will be, but a solution to this will be found. This is not the impossible challenge you make it out to be.

As jonbxx has tried to explain, it's not the tariffs that matter on goods but the non-tariff barriers. Theresa May's red lines point to us only accepting a Canada-style goods deal. A deal with services would require EU oversight, a red line. You may recall that Barnier kicked this little fantasy of yours into touch recently.

He said the idea that the EU would be worse off if Britain’s financial sector did not have full market access was “not what we hear from market participants, and it is not the analysis that we have made ourselves”.
Mr Barnier also made clear that the EU would never accept British prime minister Theresa May’s plan for a special access regime based around a broad commitment to adopt financial rules that have the same effect as those in the EU.

https://www.ft.com/content/ad96d948-...8-cae73aab7ccb

---------- Post added 30-04-2018 at 00:03 ---------- Previous post was 29-04-2018 at 23:46 ----------

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

Oh don't even bother with the whole "talking down hard working civil servants" crap given you've spent so long talking the whole country down i understand now why you favour the EU your both full of it.

I've never talked my country down but when I see automatic acceptance of a report from German civil servants and automatic rejection of one from British civil servants, if that's not talking the country down then I'm afraid I need a new dictionary!
I don't favour the EU, I just feel we're better off inside it helping shape it than outside. It has its flaws as I'm sure you acknowledge Brexit has too.
The fact is that the EU holds most of the cards and we failed to sort out our position before invoking Article 50 which weakened our negotiating position still further. That's not me favouring one side or the other, that's common negotiating sense.

[Dave42]

Irish border problem puts Brexit talks 'at risk', says EU's Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier


https://news.sky.com/story/irish-bor...snt-sf-twitter

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Dave42

Irish border problem puts Brexit talks 'at risk', says EU's Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier

https://news.sky.com/story/irish-bor...snt-sf-twitter

The UK is being pressured to come up with a workable solution by June."Theresa May under pressure to break Brexit deadlock"
https://www.ft.com/content/3d8dbcb0-...e-22951a2d8493


Interesting to see how Theresa May handles today's defeat. Will she accept the Lords' verdict that a no-deal is ruled out or will she try and reverse it? What with Windrush, she has a lot in her inbox at the moment!

Theresa May has suffered a crucial Brexit defeat after the House of Lords voted to kill off any prospect of the UK crashing out of the EU with “no deal”.
Peers voted by 335 votes to 244 to ensure parliament – rather than the government – decides the next steps if the prime minister’s exit deal is rejected in the autumn.
Unless the defeat is overturned in the Commons, it increases the chances of softening the deal and sending the government back to the negotiating table if the agreement is rejected.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8329761.html

It looks like it will be a hard brexit with all this Irish border bollocks and the pathetic unelected Lords trying to defeat Bills passed in The elected house of Commons, too many folk trying to frustrate the democratic decision that was taken in 2016, they will not succeed. People need to get it in to their heads, we are leaving the EU!

Good to see a Parliamentary Petition has reached over 100K signatories that calls for a referendum on the abolition of the unelected House of Lords.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/209433

But oh goodie, another referendum if something becomes of it.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Mick

It looks like it will be a hard brexit with all this Irish border bollocks and the pathetic unelected Lords trying to defeat Bills passed in The elected house of Commons, too many folk trying to frustrate the democratic decision that was taken in 2016, they will not succeed. People need to get it in to their heads, we are leaving the EU!

Good to see a Parliamentary Petition has reached over 100K signatories that calls for a referendum on the abolition of the unelected House of Lords.

https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/209433

But oh goodie, another referendum if something becomes of it.

As "Northerner" posted in the FT today:

The government has taken an advisory referendum as a vote for the hardest form of Brexit and the Lords are rightly resisting this interpretation of the June 2016 vote.

https://www.ft.com/content/b0064006-...e-22951a2d8493

I am sick of saying there is no hard or soft brexit, leave means leave.

That means leave the EU in it's entirety. Single Market, Customs Union, Jam Roly-Poly Union or whatever else union. That is WHAT people voted for and that is the vote that won. Leave means leave, not half in, half out.

[1andrew1]

Interesting development if true. Sounds like Bino (Brexit in name only) which will save economic growth, tick the leave box but leave many things unchanged and Liam Fox out of a job.

Theresa May is considering signing up Britain to a catch-all agreement with Brussels that Brexiteers fear will amount to “EU Mark II”.
Mrs May has told ministers that the UK could “potentially” accept an association agreement with the EU, which critics say would make Britain a “rule taker” from Europe.
Philip Hammond, the Chancellor, and David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, are also open to the idea, which was first raised at a meeting of the Cabinet’s Brexit sub-committee last week.
Mr Hammond said it would “save time” to sign up to something the EU is already familiar with, while Mr Davis also said such an arrangement could work.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...rs-fear-would/