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Old 16-05-2021, 21:30   #10471
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Re: ESPN, BT, Euro, Premier and Sky Sports news

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
Context, dear boy, context.
Old Boy you do seem to be holding contradictory views of the UK's Coronavirus recovery in two different threads. If the reason is to encourage healthy debate, that's absolutely fine, but don't expect it not to go unnoticed.

---------- Post added at 21:30 ---------- Previous post was at 21:05 ----------

As I've noted in the streaming thread, Eurosport's owner Discovery and HBO/WarnerMedia are set to combine with AT&T controlling the combined company,
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...premium-europe
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Old 16-05-2021, 23:31   #10472
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Re: ESPN, BT, Euro, Premier and Sky Sports news

My views on this are not contradictory. Personally, I am confident that this virus is close to being beaten in this country due to the vaccination programme.

However, the markets are skittish given the impact the virus has had on football this last year and markets always hate uncertainty.

---------- Post added at 23:31 ---------- Previous post was at 23:27 ----------

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
I fail to see how the current ďglory days of streamingĒ can be so readily dismissed by OB of all people!
Once again, youíve missed the point by a country mile.
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Old 17-05-2021, 00:06   #10473
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Re: ESPN, BT, Euro, Premier and Sky Sports news

Streamers are going from strength to strength OB. The value of the rights are in decline - even a rollover of a contract on current terms represents a decline in real terms.

If now isn’t the time to step up when will be? After all you’ve preached that they were in a position to blow Sky/BT out the water. Hanging around until the rights devalue isn’t blowing anyone out the water. It’s barely a fart in the bath.

The markets appear to confident in the companies supposedly waiting in the wings. Over the last 12 months:

Amazon share price - up.
Netflix - up.
Facebook - up.
Alphabet (Google) - up.
Apple - up.

All of these companies are cash heavy too - they wouldn’t need to be looking to third parties (loans) to finance their bids.

Last edited by jfman; 17-05-2021 at 00:09.
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Old 17-05-2021, 07:40   #10474
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Re: ESPN, BT, Euro, Premier and Sky Sports news

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
Streamers are going from strength to strength OB. The value of the rights are in decline - even a rollover of a contract on current terms represents a decline in real terms.
I don't disagree with those two points.

---------- Post added at 07:40 ---------- Previous post was at 07:33 ----------

Quote:
Originally Posted by jfman View Post
If now isnít the time to step up when will be? After all youíve preached that they were in a position to blow Sky/BT out the water. Hanging around until the rights devalue isnít blowing anyone out the water. Itís barely a fart in the bath.

The markets appear to confident in the companies supposedly waiting in the wings. Over the last 12 months:

Amazon share price - up.
Netflix - up.
Facebook - up.
Alphabet (Google) - up.
Apple - up.

All of these companies are cash heavy too - they wouldnít need to be looking to third parties (loans) to finance their bids.
What's that got to do with the price of eggs? It wasn't the streamers who asked for a rollover of the existing contracts. It was the Premier League.
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Old 17-05-2021, 07:48   #10475
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Re: ESPN, BT, Euro, Premier and Sky Sports news

Rational capitalists trying to profit maximise asked for an extension, OB. They knew both that there were no other buyers, and not even a credible threat of another buyer to shake out an extra few per cent from the incumbents.

Who asked for the extension has nothing to do with the price of eggs, or course, but it all points to me being correct all along that there’s no business model whereby a streamer can spend £5bn on sports rights in the UK and recoup that with a profit.

Otherwise we would have an auction.
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Old 17-05-2021, 10:48   #10476
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Re: ESPN, BT, Euro, Premier and Sky Sports news

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We await that next auction very keenly.
Actually, I now think there's a couple of good reasons to do so.

1. In 2025, most HBO/WarnerMedia rights with Sky will expire except the joint productions. If WarnerMedia does merge with Discovery, the combined company will have an existing sports brand, Eurosport, in the fold. If HBO Max is launched in the UK in 2025, it could be tempted to do so with a beefed-up sports offering with Premier League rights.

2. By 2025, the future of BT Sport will be clearer as well. Certainly, the telcos like BT and AT&T seem to be stepping back from content and focusing on 5G and fibre. Many said VM was wrong to sell off its channels to focus on infrastructure but its actions seem to have been vindicated.
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Old 17-05-2021, 13:28   #10477
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Re: ESPN, BT, Euro, Premier and Sky Sports news

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Rational capitalists trying to profit maximise asked for an extension, OB. They knew both that there were no other buyers, and not even a credible threat of another buyer to shake out an extra few per cent from the incumbents.

Who asked for the extension has nothing to do with the price of eggs, or course, but it all points to me being correct all along that thereís no business model whereby a streamer can spend £5bn on sports rights in the UK and recoup that with a profit.

Otherwise we would have an auction.
In the absence of a link, I expect you think we would just take your word for that. I accept only that this is what you believe.

---------- Post added at 13:28 ---------- Previous post was at 13:25 ----------

Quote:
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Actually, I now think there's a couple of good reasons to do so.

1. In 2025, most HBO/WarnerMedia rights with Sky will expire except the joint productions. If WarnerMedia does merge with Discovery, the combined company will have an existing sports brand, Eurosport, in the fold. If HBO Max is launched in the UK in 2025, it could be tempted to do so with a beefed-up sports offering with Premier League rights.

2. By 2025, the future of BT Sport will be clearer as well. Certainly, the telcos like BT and AT&T seem to be stepping back from content and focusing on 5G and fibre. Many said VM was wrong to sell off its channels to focus on infrastructure but its actions seem to have been vindicated.
I donít disagree, Andrew. I think Disney maybe in the running as well. Iím not so sure about Amazon now, but I wouldnít rule them out. Maybe as others have said, Amazon will continue to go for the petit packages on offer.
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Old 17-05-2021, 13:32   #10478
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Re: ESPN, BT, Euro, Premier and Sky Sports news

I don't need to post a link that rational capitalists seek to maximise profits OB any more than I would post a link to state that the sky is blue.

You are essentially accusing the league of gross incompetence at best and at worst their executives of criminal offences under the Companies Act. Plus accusing the Government of being engaged in said conspiracy by fast tracking an approval process without competitive tender.

All under the guise of a pandemic that, as you claim elsewhere, is essentially over.
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Old 17-05-2021, 13:51   #10479
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Re: ESPN, BT, Euro, Premier and Sky Sports news

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In the absence of a link, I expect you think we would just take your word for that. I accept only that this is what you believe.

---------- Post added at 13:28 ---------- Previous post was at 13:25 ----------



I don’t disagree, Andrew. I think Disney maybe in the running as well. I’m not so sure about Amazon now, but I wouldn’t rule them out. Maybe as others have said, Amazon will continue to go for the petit packages on offer.
I think the future of BT Sport will help shape the offer from streamers in the UK. We could end up with three all-round streaming packages involving factualy, reality, sport, entertainment and films from Warner-Discovery, Comcast-Sky and Disney-ESPN. Or they could decide just to offer some of these content types in the UK.

Last edited by 1andrew1; 17-05-2021 at 14:00.
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Old 17-05-2021, 18:38   #10480
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Re: ESPN, BT, Euro, Premier and Sky Sports news

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I don't need to post a link that rational capitalists seek to maximise profits OB any more than I would post a link to state that the sky is blue.

You are essentially accusing the league of gross incompetence at best and at worst their executives of criminal offences under the Companies Act. Plus accusing the Government of being engaged in said conspiracy by fast tracking an approval process without competitive tender.

All under the guise of a pandemic that, as you claim elsewhere, is essentially over.
Who says I dispute that capitalists seek to maximise profits? It’s the conclusions you reach that I am disputing.

I said that the reason this request for the next auction to be postponed was the coronavirus, and this is confirmed in the letter from the Premier League. I stand by that.

By the way, I agree with you that the sky is blue. No link required.
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Old 17-05-2021, 18:47   #10481
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Re: ESPN, BT, Euro, Premier and Sky Sports news

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
Who says I dispute that capitalists seek to maximise profits? Itís the conclusions you reach that I am disputing.

I said that the reason this request for the next auction to be postponed was the coronavirus, and this is confirmed in the letter from the Premier League. I stand by that.

By the way, I agree with you that the sky is blue. No link required.
I think youíll find itís the uncertainty over the value - which you had accepted earlier. Basic supply and demand tells you that had there been clear demand there would be clear additional value - and an auction.

Yet Iíve pointed to many cash heavy media companies who could ďblow Sky/BTĒ out the water on the basis of existing assets. The key point that Iíve been trying to tell you (and you persistently ignore) is thereís no viable underlying business model that warrants that kind of outlay.

If a streamer wanted to enter the market the best time was 3 years ago when the value of the rights declined. The second best time is now.

Yet thereís no appetite.
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Old 17-05-2021, 19:55   #10482
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Re: ESPN, BT, Euro, Premier and Sky Sports news

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I think you’ll find it’s the uncertainty over the value - which you had accepted earlier. Basic supply and demand tells you that had there been clear demand there would be clear additional value - and an auction.
.
Yes, I do accept there is uncertainty over the value. And I think both Sky and BT may well pay less for the rights next time around..

But my post stated that the reason for the cancelled auction was the Coronavirus. ASI have said already, the Premier League used that as the basis of their proposal. Why you continue to dispute that despite the evidence there in black and white is beyond me, I’m afraid.

But of course you keep arguing that black is white, so maybe you cannot read the letter.

---------- Post added at 19:55 ---------- Previous post was at 19:50 ----------

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Yet I’ve pointed to many cash heavy media companies who could “blow Sky/BT” out the water on the basis of existing assets. The key point that I’ve been trying to tell you (and you persistently ignore) is there’s no viable underlying business model that warrants that kind of outlay.

If a streamer wanted to enter the market the best time was 3 years ago when the value of the rights declined. The second best time is now.

Yet there’s no appetite.
Perhaps, with your economist’s hat on you can tell me how Sky and BT can afford to buy rights to Premiership football (even before Comcast took over) but the big fella streamers cannot.

On the contrary to what you have said about entering the market, the best time to enter will be next time, when I believe there will be even less appetite by Sky and BT to fork out a small fortune for the rights. This will allow interested streamers to bid less with a good chance of success. Additionally, the broadband rollout will have advanced further by then, increasing the potential audience.
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Old 17-05-2021, 19:57   #10483
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Re: ESPN, BT, Euro, Premier and Sky Sports news

I'm not arguing black is white, OB. You are giving a selective interpretation of events to gloss over the fact that neither the EPL nor the Government give any credibility to a new entrant for (and thus an increase in the value of) the rights. Hence permitting them to bypass the usual competition law that would apply.

A quick note from the lawyers of any "deep pockets" streamer would - very quickly - have focussed the minds of the EPL who are legally bound to act in the interests of their member clubs.

The interests of the clubs were not served by going to the market. It's glaringly obvious why to everyone except you who seemingly wants to say "if only..." for the next three years.

Quote:
Perhaps, with your economist’s hat on you can tell me how Sky and BT can afford to buy rights to Premiership football (even before Comcast took over) but the big fella streamers cannot.

On the contrary to what you have said about entering the market, the best time to enter will be next time, when I believe there will be even less appetite by Sky and BT to fork out a small fortune for the rights. This will allow interested streamers to bid less with a good chance of success. Additionally, the broadband rollout will have advanced further by then, increasing the potential audience.
There will be less appetite for Sky and BT to buy existing rights in the future at a real terms lower value than they do today?

That’s a mind blowing analysis to be honest OB.

I’ve explained to you a million times and I’m sure I’ll be here in three years time repeating the same. Sky and BT have business models for selling the rights. You, erroneously, assume rational capitalists (cash heavy as I’ve demonstrated above) will through some philanthropic endeavour run the rights as a loss leader. It’s not up to me to demonstrate they have a business model. Clearly neither they, nor the EPL themselves, believe such a model exists or they would have matched Sky’s 2016 bid in 2019 and won rights then.

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Old 17-05-2021, 20:36   #10484
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Re: ESPN, BT, Euro, Premier and Sky Sports news

Basically, you don’t have an argument. You have admitted that you don’t know what these business models are, and yet you say with calm confidence that their business models couldn’t support the acquisition of these sports rights.

Sky and BT on their own did not have any problem bidding, so you cannot tell me with any credibility that the bigger pocket streamers can’t afford it.

Quit while you are behind, my friend.
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Old 17-05-2021, 20:47   #10485
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Re: ESPN, BT, Euro, Premier and Sky Sports news

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Basically, you donít have an argument. You have admitted that you donít know what these business models are, and yet you say with calm confidence that their business models couldnít support the acquisition of these sports rights.
I cannot analyse fictional business models that seemingly exist in your head but not in the executives of Amazon, Facebook, DAZN, Google, etc.

Quote:
Sky and BT on their own did not have any problem bidding, so you cannot tell me with any credibility that the bigger pocket streamers canít afford it.

Quit while you are behind, my friend.
Conflating ability to afford with being able to get a return on investment undermines your arguments as you claim to understand business in a capitalist economy.

Iíve told you these organisations are cash heavy. To the tune of hundreds of billions of dollars. That is not one and the same as being willing to buy the rights without a credible business model whereby they get a return on said investment.

If the value of the rights are falling itís clear that the market believes Sky/BT have hit as close to the optimal business model. No new entrant can invest the same and get the same return. Thatís literally the purpose of a blind auction - to push all potential bidders to their limits.

Streamers - with the exception of Amazon at the bargain basement bucket - havenít even engaged to date. I trust their judgement far more than the fiction you have developed and continue to push on the forum.
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