Coronavirus (OLD)

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Mick

BREAKING: President Macron extends French lock down until May 11th.

Britain may follow/extend by same length.

I said, when we were initially locked down, that it would be until the end of May, effectively two months, and I don’t see that changing.

Some restrictions may alleviate, piecemeal, before that, but I think general population until then.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Chris

Sacrebleu!

To the Marseillese refrain:

Crappon, crappon
Sur la toilette,
Ou est le papier.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Pierre

I said, when we were initially locked down, that it would be until the end of May, effectively two months, and I don’t see that changing.

Some restrictions may alleviate, piecemeal, before that, but I think general population until then.

I don't think the UK's lockdown will last that long. The Chancellor will be wanting to avoid a collapse of the economy.

If there is no easing of these restrictions agreed in another three weeks, we will be in quite some trouble, I would have thought.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I don't think the UK's lockdown will last that long. The Chancellor will be wanting to avoid a collapse of the economy.

If there is no easing of these restrictions agreed in another three weeks, we will be in quite some trouble, I would have thought.

The economy or lives ? The economy is going to come second.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Mr K

The economy or lives ? The economy is going to come second.

On the 23rd January China imposed a lockdown in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei and on the 8th April the Wuhan lockdown officially ended so l would imagine we are taking about that type of timeframe.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by denphone

On the 23rd January China imposed a lockdown in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei and on the 8th April the Wuhan lockdown officially ended so l would imagine we are taking about that type of timeframe.

That’s 3 and a bit months and otherwise I would tend to agree, but China locked down a province, and we’re locking down a country.

So I might expect, depending on results, perhaps parts of the U.K. or certain sectors being relaxed, if after 2 months the evidence supported it.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I don't think the UK's lockdown will last that long. The Chancellor will be wanting to avoid a collapse of the economy.

If there is no easing of these restrictions agreed in another three weeks, we will be in quite some trouble, I would have thought.

Thousands dying every day in the second wave isn’t going to do much for consumer confidence.

There’s already high level preparations in place for it to last 12 weeks. Boris himself said that’s the timeframe for “turning the tide”. To ease up after six we would as well not have bothered and concentrated our efforts on mass graves.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by Pierre

That’s 3 and a bit months and otherwise I would tend to agree, but China locked down a province, and we’re locking down a country.

So I might expect, depending on results, perhaps parts of the U.K. or certain sectors being relaxed, if after 2 months the evidence supported it.

I think that’s a reasonable assessment to make. I’d add one caveat which is that restrictions may be tightened or loosened based on geography also

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I don't think the UK's lockdown will last that long. The Chancellor will be wanting to avoid a collapse of the economy.

Id love it to be as short as possible, but I'm expecting it to last until the end of May. Schools may be one of the first allowed back, and I'm informed (by insiders) that they are currently working on the assumption they will be locked down until after the May Bank Holiday. I'm expecting to be working from home until pretty much the summer. There may be some relaxations before then, but likely not many.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I don't think the UK's lockdown will last that long. The Chancellor will be wanting to avoid a collapse of the economy.

If there is no easing of these restrictions agreed in another three weeks, we will be in quite some trouble, I would have thought.

I think you're sticking your neck out here, OB.

There will be hell to pay if the science tells the Guvmin that it must avoid a 2nd wave - when the economy would collapse anyway.


---------- Post added at 21:38 ---------- Previous post was at 21:37 ----------

Originally Posted by denphone

On the 23rd January China imposed a lockdown in Wuhan and other cities in Hubei and on the 8th April the Wuhan lockdown officially ended so l would imagine we are taking about that type of timeframe.

... at least we'll have the advantage of being able to some degree to assess what will be the outcome in Wuhan.

Originally Posted by Pierre

That’s 3 and a bit months and otherwise I would tend to agree, but China locked down a province, and we’re locking down a country.

So I might expect, depending on results, perhaps parts of the U.K. or certain sectors being relaxed, if after 2 months the evidence supported it.

Wuhan is a province by Chinese standards but with a population of 58 million it has almost as many people in it as the UK does. The lockdown in Wuhan was extreme, and lasted 3 and a bit months with the result that infection rates came right under control. I’d say there’s every reason for the UK government to at least consider that as a model that worked, even if there are ultimately other factors here that mean I t doesn’t directly apply.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Chris

Wuhan is a province by Chinese standards but with a population of 58 million it has almost as many people in it as the UK does. The lockdown in Wuhan was extreme, and lasted 3 and a bit months with the result that infection rates came right under control. I’d say there’s every reason for the UK government to at least consider that as a model that worked, even if there are ultimately other factors here that mean I t doesn’t directly apply.

I agree, it could easily go that far, end of June. It all depends on the numbers. I think though, most people and businesses could potentially handle the 6-8 weeks and come out of it. 12 weeks could kill a lot of businesses.

Certainly construction would have major issues anything beyond 6 weeks.

Difficult times.

[heero_yuy]

I read in my redtop today that bars and pubs are worried that the beer in the cellars will go past its use by dates if the lockdown continues for more than a few extra weeks and it'll have to be poured down the drain.

Apparently lagers have a 4 month storage life after delivery whereas real ale could be as short as six weeks.

Something like 50 million pints are at risk.

[jfman]

They should tell take away beers like they do in some European cities. Short refreshment for your one hour walk.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

I read in my redtop today that bars and pubs are worried that the beer in the cellars will go past its use by dates if the lockdown continues for more than a few extra weeks and it'll have to be poured down the drain.

Apparently lagers have a 4 month storage life after delivery whereas real ale could be as short as six weeks.

Something like 50 million pints are at risk.

A couple links here as to regards to how long alcohol will last.

https://store.approvedfood.co.uk/blo...nd-food-dates/

https://www.healthline.com/nutrition...alcohol-expire