Brexit discussion - Page 159

ianch99 · 07-03-2018, 19:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I cannot see anything to disagree with there. This is why we are keeping our cards close to our chests, much to the annoyance of the press and remainers.

You mean the cunning card that Hammond has that says:

Quote:

UK would reject any trade deal not including financial services

That's a Hard brexit then .. anyone for Tea (and cake)?

jonbxx · 07-03-2018, 19:29

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

What's this then?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/timwors.../#6633346732f8

David Davis flatly dismissed Brussels demands for a £92billion (€100billion) divorce bill today after it emerged Germany, France and Poland had ganged up to inflate the sum.

EU negotiators have doubled the charge the UK was thought to be facing in order to cover farm subsidies and plug the giant hole in its budget up until 2020.

Just read the link and the only source it has for the €100bn is again the Financial Times article. The quote above from was from the Daily Mail and copied in to that article. The article was written by Tim Worstall, former UKIP press officer BTW

1andrew1 · 07-03-2018, 23:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

I cannot see anything to disagree with there. This is why we are keeping our cards close to our chests, much to the annoyance of the press and remainers.

Um, Theresa May's speech set out our cake-and-eat it approach. The EU has published its detailed guidelines long in advance. This is not a deal for negotiating a contract for printer paper with multiple suppliers, there's just two sides with pretty few surprises on either of them.

I do genuinely believe that something like Robert's Peston's scenario is a credible one, ie that the deal offered to the UK will be unacceptable to Parliament but that we'll negotiate a transition period that will go on for some time.

OLD BOY · 08-03-2018, 08:05

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99

You mean the cunning card that Hammond has that says:

That's a Hard brexit then .. anyone for Tea (and cake)?

The EU have already indicated they don't want a hard Brexit, so if that's true, and clearly some on here believe every word they say, they are going to have to come down off that high and mighty perch.

---------- Post added at 08:03 ---------- Previous post was at 07:59 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Um, Theresa May's speech set out our cake-and-eat it approach. The EU has published its detailed guidelines long in advance. This is not a deal for negotiating a contract for printer paper with multiple suppliers, there's just two sides with pretty few surprises on either of them.

I do genuinely believe that something like Robert's Peston's scenario is a credible one, ie that the deal offered to the UK will be unacceptable to Parliament but that we'll negotiate a transition period that will go on for some time.

I know that's what you believe, Andrew.

Incidentally, the 'transition period' will actually be an 'implementation period' because we will already have left the EU by 2019. If there is nothing to implement because there's no deal, we would be out, and that's that.

---------- Post added at 08:05 ---------- Previous post was at 08:03 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99

You mean the cunning card that Hammond has that says:

That's a Hard brexit then .. anyone for Tea (and cake)?

Make mine a large slab, with some nice Australian wine.

1andrew1 · 08-03-2018, 08:13

In news that may annoy Brextremists like Rees-Mogg, the Government will today publish its future contribution payments to the EU. It will also reiterate that there will be no Brexit dividend; payments that would have gone to the EU will now fund equivalent UK bodies and extra money may be needed if by any chance we are allowed to have associate membership of EU regulatory bodies such as the one for medicines.

---------- Post added at 08:13 ---------- Previous post was at 08:09 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Incidentally, the 'transition period' will actually be an 'implementation period' because we will already have left the EU by 2019. If there is nothing to implement because there's no deal, we would be out, and that's that.

No one expects us to negotiate a trade deal with the EU by March 2019. These things take years. But we should be able to negotiate a transition deal (or whatever form of words you wish to use) by then to prevent a hard Brexit.

OLD BOY · 08-03-2018, 08:15

Quote:

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

In news that may annoy Brextremists like Rees-Mogg, the Government will today publish its future contribution payments to the EU. It will also reiterate that there will be no Brexit dividend; payments that would have gone to the EU will now fund equivalent UK bodies and extra money may be needed if by any chance we are allowed to have associate membership of EU regulatory bodies such as the one for medicines.

Nothing new here, Andrew; the savings from ceasing contributions to the EU always were unlikely to be realised in the early years.

The biggest advantage for the UK will be increased trade with the rest of the world. That's the dividend I'm interested in.

1andrew1 · 08-03-2018, 13:10

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Nothing new here, Andrew; the savings from ceasing contributions to the EU always were unlikely to be realised in the early years.

The biggest advantage for the UK will be increased trade with the rest of the world. That's the dividend I'm interested in.

You may have to wait forever for that mate. The EU currently has trade deals with about 70 countries - more than any other trading bloc has. When we leave they won't transition over; it's not a simple cut-and-paste jobbie I'm afraid.

---------- Post added at 13:08 ---------- Previous post was at 13:05 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Make mine a large slab, with some nice Australian wine.

Nothing to stop you enjoying that at the moment. But in the future you may need the wine more to help wash down that chlorinated chicken and US-made Cornish pasties.

---------- Post added at 13:10 ---------- Previous post was at 13:08 ----------

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Nothing new here, Andrew; the savings from ceasing contributions to the EU always were unlikely to be realised in the early years.

The Government says there will be no savings in the future. It's not a case of early years, middle years or later years. There will be no savings full stop.

ianch99 · 08-03-2018, 16:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Nothing new here, Andrew; the savings from ceasing contributions to the EU always were unlikely to be realised in the early years.

The biggest advantage for the UK will be increased trade with the rest of the world. That's the dividend I'm interested in.

Better get that Bus repainted then

OLD BOY · 08-03-2018, 17:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99

Better get that Bus repainted then

I don't recall the bus saying anything about a start date. Not that it matters - it was only ever a suggestion by the Leave campaigners, not a commitment by any political party.

As it happens, the government has pledged to continue paying various grants for an interim period in line with payments currently paid by the EU (eg agricultural grants to farmers) so that money was never going to be available straight away anyhow.

denphone · 08-03-2018, 17:24

Quote:

Originally Posted by ianch99

Better get that Bus repainted then

Better still get Boris to do it.

ianch99 · 08-03-2018, 17:32

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

As it happens, the government has pledged to continue paying various grants for an interim period in line with payments currently paid by the EU (eg agricultural grants to farmers) so that money was never going to be available straight away anyhow.

Can't recall a Bus driving around with this message?

papa smurf · 08-03-2018, 17:46

Quote:

Originally Posted by denphone

Better still get Boris to do it.

Borrow this one
https://news.sky.com/story/remain-ca...-cost-11260978

1andrew1 · 08-03-2018, 20:03

So, a few things came out today:

1) There will not be a Brexit dividend. After 15 years, annual net borrowing would be around £20bn higher under the EEA option, almost £60bn higher under the free trade agreement option and more than £80bn higher under the WTO option.

2) Free trade deals with new countries will have minimal benefit as these tariffs are already low. It is the non-tariff rules and regulations which are the issue and free trade deals do not solve these.

3) Tusk is prioritising the Irish border issue but not solving this won't be a requirement of a transition deal. I still think this form of "purgatory" is where we'll be for a long time.

https://www.parliament.uk/business/c...blished-17-19/

Dave42 · 08-03-2018, 22:13

May warned there must be an 'Ireland first' approach to Brexit talks

https://news.sky.com/story/may-warne...talks-11281755

Stuart · 08-03-2018, 22:27

Quote:

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The biggest advantage for the UK will be increased trade with the rest of the world. That's the dividend I'm interested in.

Let's wait and see, shall we? We have vague promises from the likes of Trump that they will trade with us, but let's see what they offer to a group of negotiators negotiating on behalf of one country of 70 million compared to those representing several countries, and 400 million people.