Britain outside the EU

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

That’s some premier league wishful thinking.

I hope they do accept reality but I fear you might be right.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

It may have escaped your attention, but most people earning above average salaries are hard working.

You prove nothing by pointing to what a relatively small minority might do.

It may have escaped your attention but most people on below average salaries work hard. Which makes the distinction completely pointless other than to be out of touch.

Pay Brits higher wages. That’s what we voted for isn’t it?

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I hope they do accept reality but I fear you might be right.

I think you’re misreading the situation because you’re misunderstanding their calculus. The Johnson project thrives on the almost unequivocal backing they believe they have from key voters and mid market tabloids to “get Brexit done”. They feel empowered to do whatever it takes.

Johnson backed down over the Paterson affair right enough but it was nothing to do with being outgunned. The move caused outrage, including amongst those newspapers otherwise expected to cheer him on almost regardless. He’s a journalist at heart and the bad opinion of papers he believes to be influential over his key voters really matters to him. That’s what finally cut through last week, and triggered the u-turn even after the commons vote was won.

On the EU issue he still enjoys broad support in all the places that matter to him. In fact, kicking the EU is the thing most likely to improve his general standing amongst those voters and newspapers. On that basis he is now more likely to take a hard line on Art.16, not less. You were nearer the mark when you suggested BoJo is about to “do a Henry V” in the other thread this morning.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Chris

I think you’re misreading the situation because you’re misunderstanding their calculus. The Johnson project thrives on the almost unequivocal backing they believe they have from key voters and mid market tabloids to “get Brexit done”. They feel empowered to do whatever it takes.

Johnson backed down over the Paterson affair right enough but it was nothing to do with being outgunned. The move caused outrage, including amongst those newspapers otherwise expected to cheer him on almost regardless. He’s a journalist at heart and the bad opinion of papers he believes to be influential over his key voters really matters to him. That’s what finally cut through last week, and triggered the u-turn even after the commons vote was won.

On the EU issue he still enjoys broad support in all the places that matter to him. In fact, kicking the EU is the thing most likely to improve his general standing amongst those voters and newspapers. On that basis he is now more likely to take a hard line on Art.16, not less. You were nearer the mark when you suggested BoJo is about to “do a Henry V” in the other thread this morning.

I think he'll continue to do a Henry V with France, but end up backing down against the EU over NI, before or after triggering Article 16. And let's face it, he's got a willing accomplice in the form of Macron who benefits electorally from such skirmishes as well.

The current corruption allegations may indeed encourage him to trigger Article 16, but reality would make him do what defines this government the most: U-turns. I wouldn't want to be on the receiving end of phone calls from Nissan and Toyota after triggering Article 16.

https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/202...eland-protocol

Washington, DC - Today, Representatives Gregory W. Meeks, Chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, William R. Keating, Chair of the Europe, Energy, the Environment and Cyber Subcommittee, Earl Blumenauer, Chair of the Ways and Means Subcommittee on Trade, and Brendan Boyle, Chair of the European Union Caucus, released the following statement on the United Kingdom’s threats to suspend the Northern Ireland protocol of the EU withdrawal agreement:

“The Northern Ireland Protocol was a significant achievement during the volatile Brexit process, and its full implementation is critical for ensuring Brexit doesn’t undermine decades of progress toward peace on the island of Ireland.

“The Good Friday Agreement and broader peace process took patience and time to build, with good faith contributions from the communities in Northern Ireland, the United States, the United Kingdom, Ireland, and others. However, peace can unravel quickly.

“In threatening to invoke Article 16 of the Northern Ireland Protocol, the United Kingdom threatens to not only destabilize trade relations, but also that hard earned peace. We call on the UK to abandon this dangerous path, and to commit to implementing the Northern Ireland Protocol in full.”

And then..

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b1955071.html

The UK has pulled back from an early suspension of the Brexit deal for Northern Ireland – and a trade war with the EU – arguing further talks can still avert the crisis.

Probably no connection whatsoever...

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I think he'll continue to do a Henry V with France, but end up backing down against the EU over NI, before or after triggering Article 16.

The current corruption allegations may indeed encourage him to trigger Article 16, but reality would make him do what defines this government the most: U-turns. I wouldn't want to on the receiving end of phone calls from Nissan and Toyota after triggering Article 16.

Yeah, I was wondering if Article 16 would be the 'dead cat' to distract from internal matters but, as Hugh said, it looks like a small backing away from that is on the cards. The noises were that the EU would retaliate for invoking Article 16, which is their right under the agreement. This, along with the US message seems to have focused minds a little

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Chris

I think you’re misreading the situation because you’re misunderstanding their calculus. The Johnson project thrives on the almost unequivocal backing they believe they have from key voters and mid market tabloids to “get Brexit done”. They feel empowered to do whatever it takes.

Johnson backed down over the Paterson affair right enough but it was nothing to do with being outgunned. The move caused outrage, including amongst those newspapers otherwise expected to cheer him on almost regardless. He’s a journalist at heart and the bad opinion of papers he believes to be influential over his key voters really matters to him. That’s what finally cut through last week, and triggered the u-turn even after the commons vote was won.

On the EU issue he still enjoys broad support in all the places that matter to him. In fact, kicking the EU is the thing most likely to improve his general standing amongst those voters and newspapers. On that basis he is now more likely to take a hard line on Art.16, not less. You were nearer the mark when you suggested BoJo is about to “do a Henry V” in the other thread this morning.

That's one way of looking at it and one I used to think about right, in the last couple of months though I've got a bit more conspiratorial, this constant arguing and sabre rattling maskS how badly they've mismanaged pretty much everything and if they can keep causing rifts and trouble by the time it all settles down years down the line or when they're finally booted out of office they can blame the EU for it!!

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Hugh

https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/202...eland-protocol

And then..

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b1955071.html

Probably no connection whatsoever...

Interesting.

[Taf]

How is the EU going to protect its border with Belarus?

Belarus's former ambassador to France and Poland claims the migrants (at the Poland-Belarus border) are Afghan and Iraqi war veterans trained by Russian intelligence. Speaking amid the border crisis, one unnamed male said even though the UK is no longer in the EU, Britain was the real target for half of those now trying to flee.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-migrants.html

Originally Posted by Hugh

https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/202...eland-protocol

And then..

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-b1955071.html

Probably no connection whatsoever...

There probably isn’t. The signs are that HMG is working on a strategy to publicly justify and defend invocation before proceeding. Over at the BBC, Laura K’s money seems to be on Art.16 being invoked some time next month.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-59256153

[jfman]

Nothing like a bit of nationalism to distract from problems elsewhere.

Originally Posted by jfman

Nothing like a bit of nationalism to distract from problems elsewhere.

If that were the case, presumably they’d be doing it now, as some had speculated? I actually thought they would to be honest after the week they’ve had, but possibly they think something will come out of COP this weekend to distract everyone.

The debate over Art.16 on this forum has recently tilted towards whether they will actually do it at all, and particularly this week, whether an open letter from some congress members in America has stopped them. Research and reporting from Kuenssberg at the BBC suggests they do fully intend to proceed, and that Art.16 was the strategy from the outset. It’s just a matter of timing.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Chris

If that were the case, presumably they’d be doing it now, as some had speculated? I actually thought they would to be honest after the week they’ve had, but possibly they think something will come out of COP this weekend to distract everyone.

The debate over Art.16 on this forum has recently tilted towards whether they will actually do it at all, and particularly this week, whether an open letter from some congress members in America has stopped them. Research and reporting from Kuenssberg at the BBC suggests they do fully intend to proceed, and that Art.16 was the strategy from the outset. It’s just a matter of timing.

They can use nationalism as a distraction by generating headlines with nationalistic hubris by speculating. This has the obvious benefit of not actually triggering Article 16 or dealing with consequences that would entail.

Four weeks of will they/won’t they will distract from corruption/Covid more effectively than triggering A16 now.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

They can use nationalism as a distraction by generating headlines with nationalistic hubris by speculating. This has the obvious benefit of not actually triggering Article 16 or dealing with consequences that would entail.

Four weeks of will they/won’t they will distract from corruption/Covid more effectively than triggering A16 now.

Nah - the sleaze thing will run and run. The killer for the Guvmin is the HoL placements for £3 million and the Randox contract which touches so many Tories. Article 16 will come and go, will dominate for a while, but the media smells blood and the Tories have awoken the sleeping Labour bear.

For months, Starmer has had no purpose for being; now he's in his element and stoke up the more vocal in his caucus.

Great fun to be had, sadly at the expense of that buffoon Boris and the Tories at close quarters to him.


---------- Post added at 15:07 ---------- Previous post was at 15:06 ----------

Originally Posted by Taf

How is the EU going to protect its border with Belarus?



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...-migrants.html

I see little difference between Belarus and France in the matter of illegal migrants.

I tend to agree. We are only just at the mid-point of this parliament and Boris’ opponents in the party and the Press can tackle this as a leadership issue that - at present - has no necessary consequences for the next general election, which as things stand will not happen until May of 2024.

Had it all blown up at this point in 2023 all but the most rabid anti-Boris Tories might have held their noses and left well alone, for fear of putting Labour into government. That is not a present danger and if Boris is not unseated in the next 6 months (and personally I don’t think he will be) I suspect those who want him gone will be on the lookout for the next opportunity to have him gone by this time next year. That would give his successor a similar run-in to the next election that John Major enjoyed after unseating Margaret Thatcher.