Russia has invaded Ukraine

Originally Posted by Damien

Also, Russia is reportedly running out, hence using fewer premise ones more recently.

I still think this most likely ends unofficially if Ukraine takes back enough.

The Russian campaign has been utterly boneheaded from the outset. Not only did they not realise they would have to actually properly invade and fight to take the country, once they did so they continually underestimated their opposition. Worse, they have treated the people under their control with such utter brutality that no Ukrainian leader could agree to terms as long as any prospect remains of liberating Ukrainian citizens from it. Ukraine has every incentive to fight and none whatsoever to negotiate. Plus their idiot propagandists on state TV are now cheerfully spelling out how Ukraine needs to be bombed into the freezer and then a peace negotiated that lasts long enough for Russia to re-arm and start again.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Chris

The Russian campaign has been utterly boneheaded from the outset. Not only did they not realise they would have to actually properly invade and fight to take the country, once they did so they continually underestimated their opposition. Worse, they have treated the people under their control with such utter brutality that no Ukrainian leader could agree to terms as long as any prospect remains of liberating Ukrainian citizens from it. Ukraine has every incentive to fight and none whatsoever to negotiate. Plus their idiot propagandists on state TV are now cheerfully spelling out how Ukraine needs to be bombed into the freezer and then a peace negotiated that lasts long enough for Russia to re-arm and start again.

I don't think that Chris' accurate analysis, leads me to conclude that Ukraine will win against Russia. The proposition that Russia won't win is predicated on two factors: (1) They are running out of missiles (but are they?); (2) Resistance by the population will stiffen such that Russia won't win (is that right?).

I suppose one can argue the toss over what constitutes a "win" for Russia or a "lose" for Ukraine. But Ukraine without electricity in November, if that happens, is not going to win. Electricity won't be restored quickly and people will do what they need to to survive - as in migrate, leaving Ukraine more-or-less empty into which Russia could walk.

[pip08456]

I liked this headline for the story.

Getting to the Bottom of Hungary’s Russian Spying Problem.

A flash drive containing classified data, reportedly discovered hidden in the anus of an agent trying to cross the Ukrainian-Hungarian border, illustrates how Hungary has become a hub for Russian spying.

https://balkaninsight.com/2022/11/30...pying-problem/

Seph, back-up of power supply is on its way.
UK funding to help repair Ukraine’s damaged energy systems and get power back to Ukrainian people.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/u...rainian-people

the support will help with essential repairs to critical energy infrastructure following ongoing Russian attacks, and will reconnect households and key facilities to power supply
the UK is the largest donor to the Fund so far, along with sending hospital generators and a financial guarantee for Ukraine’s state-owned energy provider

Ukraine will have further UK support to keep the lights on across the country and repair energy infrastructure damaged by Russian attacks, Foreign Secretary James Cleverly announced today.

US Is Sending Ukraine $53 Million to Help Repair Electrical Grid.

The US is giving Ukraine more than $53 million to help repair electrical infrastructure damaged by Russian attacks in recent weeks, Secretary of State Antony Blinken announced Tuesday.

The package will help Ukraine buy transformers, circuit-breakers, vehicles and other equipment, Blinken announced Tuesday on the margins of a NATO foreign ministers’ gathering in Bucharest. The US wants to get the equipment to Ukraine quickly to restore power as winter sets in.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...lectrical-grid

[pip08456]

The Bank of Ireland has also suspended their account, fuel cards for vehicles have also been withdrawn.

Seems like Irish companies don't want to do business with them.

Electricity companies next?

https://www.irishmirror.ie/news/iris...nment-26635546

[Sephiroth]

Unless Ireland breaks off diplomatic relations with Russia, then the 1961 Vienna Convention applies.

Article 25
The receiving State shall accord full facilities for the performance of the functions of the mission.

Of course, any reasonable person hopes the the Russian Embassy staff get a taste of their own medicine in the winter. However, "right" is on Russia's side in this case and the Irish government will have to deliver fuel or whatever.

Yes, it's a bit odd. We generally leave embassies alone because we want our own to be protected abroad as well. It's usually one of the last things to go before a war between countries.

Seems like another case of targetting the wrong people.

The staff at the embassy did not start the war, nor can they stop it.

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Paul

Seems like another case of targetting the wrong people.

The staff at the embassy did not start the war, nor can they stop it.

Who else can the Irish companies target? At least these people work on behalf of the Russian government

[Sephiroth]

As I said, the Irish government must step in to meet their obligations.
The private suppliers cannot be compelled to do anything. Very nice.

Originally Posted by TheDaddy

Who else can the Irish companies target? At least these people work on behalf of the Russian government

Why should they "target" anyone ?

Originally Posted by Paul

Why should they "target" anyone ?

Oh I don’t know, maybe due to revulsion at war crimes, possible genocide, and a perfectly human desire to do something about it, however indirect?

Only one person actually started the war (or can stop it), but that doesn’t make the government that works for him any less complicit. And that does include embassies, many of which have been enthusiastically tweeting Russian government propaganda since last February.

Originally Posted by Chris

Oh I don’t know, maybe due to revulsion at war crimes, possible genocide, and a perfectly human desire to do something about it, however indirect?.

Right, because "revulsion" is now a reason to target anyone ..
Those staff have not committed any war crimes, or any genocide.

You seriously think they should be targetted and suffer for actions totally beyond their control ?
Targetting them is not actually going to do "something about it" or achieve anything, it will have no effect on the war.

I'm quite sure some of them support their govt, I'm quite sure some dont.
Those that dont probably quite like still being alive, so they are not going to make waves about it.

Originally Posted by Damien

Yes, it's a bit odd. We generally leave embassies alone because we want our own to be protected abroad as well. It's usually one of the last things to go before a war between countries.

Originally Posted by Paul

Right, because "revulsion" is now a reason to target anyone ..
Those staff have not committed any war crimes, or any genocide.

You seriously think they should be targetted and suffer for actions totally beyond their control ?
Targetting them is not actually going to do "something about it" or achieve anything, it will have no effect on the war.

I'm quite sure some of them support their govt, I'm quite sure some dont.
Those that dont probably quite like still being alive, so they are not going to make waves about it.

Yes, because denying them supplies isn’t depriving them of life. The embassy can just send them home. They can just resign and go home themselves. If they choose to remain in Ireland under such conditions, and continue to advocate for the Russian government, then that’s their choice. It’s a proportionate response by Irish citizens against those whose whole reason for employment is to tell the world that what Russia is doing is acceptable.

Originally Posted by Chris

Yes.

Pity, I always thought better of you.