Coronavirus

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

The daily figure of hospitalisations UK-wide as of now is 123, and it is stable, despite the number of cases rising. Why? The vaccination programme, which, like it or not, is the game changer that will enable the government to remove restrictions on 21 June. There is no case for delay. Time to move on and get our lives back to normal.

Different facts twisted to the same old tune OB.

I'm unsure why you include "like it or not" - everyone welcomes the impact vaccination is having on more positive outcomes. It is indeed a game changer unfortunately you see the game as a binary choice of restrictions against no restrictions.

A significant proportion of the population remain both unvaccinated and partially vaccinated. It's a game changer but you wish to cut the game short and hope for the best - then again that was your attitude on 23 March 2020 to hope for the best.

I'll stick to getting my insightful analysis from others on the forum happy to utilise evidence and cite their sources. The other day, while confusing hospitalisations with deaths (minor error, I know) you also made the unsubstantiated claim that most people are now asymptomatic?

Do you have a source for that one or was it merely invented to suit your dogmatic view that we should not, and never have had, restrictions regardless of the impact on hospitalisations and deaths?

If vaccination is the game changer you profess it to be what's the problem with a few more weeks of getting more out there while also keeping large swathes of the economy open? When the alternative - if you are wrong - is lockdown? I'm sure those business owners open just now wouldn't thank you for it.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Are you right, Jon?

If you tip the data from the link into a spreadsheet (see attached), the 17% increase week on week is not evident.

If you click on the data tab on Jon’s link (on the Patients admitted to hospital table), the last 7 days (21-27 May) add up to 869, and the previous 7 days (14-20 May) add up to 742.

That works out to a 17% increase week on week.

[jonbxx]

Originally Posted by Hugh

If you click on the data tab on Jon’s link (on the Patients admitted to hospital table), the last 7 days (21-27 May) add up to 869, and the previous 7 days (14-20 May) add up to 742.

That works out to a 17% increase week on week.

Yes, that's right. It's also on the front page (link) where they give change on the previous 7 day period. Here's all the main bullet points;

• Cases up 34.7%
• Deaths down 14.8%
• Hospitalisations up 17.1%
• Tests down 17.3%

The data is not pretty viewing. Hopefully, the ultimate lagging measure of deaths will not follow the trends for cases and hospitalisations. That would be expected due to the vaccination program but hard data would be preferred of course

[Carth]

If you've been vaccinated and subsequently tested 2 months later, does the test pick up the active virus or antibodies?

Simply asking in order to ascertain if mass testing is picking up an active virus or the remnants of a dead one

Not that I really give a brown smelly one, currently the biggest threat to my health is bored frustration and a desire to lash out . . . thank God I don't own a weapon

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Carth

If you've been vaccinated and subsequently tested 2 months later, does the test pick up the active virus or antibodies?

Simply asking in order to ascertain if mass testing is picking up an active virus or the remnants of a dead one

Not that I really give a brown smelly one, currently the biggest threat to my health is bored frustration and a desire to lash out . . . thank God I don't own a weapon

Didn’t have you down as one for nightclubs

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by Hugh

If you click on the data tab on Jon’s link (on the Patients admitted to hospital table), the last 7 days (21-27 May) add up to 869, and the previous 7 days (14-20 May) add up to 742.

That works out to a 17% increase week on week.

Week-on-week can be taken as more than one successive week pair. One successive week pair does not offer a trend.


---------- Post added at 12:28 ---------- Previous post was at 12:22 ----------

Originally Posted by jonbxx

Yes, that's right. It's also on the front page (link) where they give change on the previous 7 day period. Here's all the main bullet points;

• Cases up 34.7%
• Deaths down 14.8%
• Hospitalisations up 17.1%
• Tests down 17.3%

The data is not pretty viewing. Hopefully, the ultimate lagging measure of deaths will not follow the trends for cases and hospitalisations. That would be expected due to the vaccination program but hard data would be preferred of course

In the hotspots, we know that discovered cases (through testing) are rising as stated. Deaths appear to be falling (see vaccinations for details).

Hospitalisations rate declared in various media as being down to unvaccinated people.

This tells me that currently, the vaccine is doing its job. Best to contain this though through local lock downs.

[spiderplant]

Originally Posted by Carth

If you've been vaccinated and subsequently tested 2 months later, does the test pick up the active virus or antibodies?

Depends what test you mean, but basically, no. I've had two PCR and two LFT tests since my first vaccine, and all were negative. If I had an antibody test, hopefully that would be positive.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Week-on-week can be taken as more than one successive week pair. One successive week pair does not offer a trend.


---------- Post added at 12:28 ---------- Previous post was at 12:22 ----------



In the hotspots, we know that discovered cases (through testing) are rising as stated. Deaths appear to be falling (see vaccinations for details).

Hospitalisations rate declared in various media as being down to unvaccinated people.

This tells me that currently, the vaccine is doing its job. Best to contain this though through local lock downs.

Unfortunately, "local local downs" are as effective as "no-peeing" zones in a swimming pool…

---------- Post added at 14:00 ---------- Previous post was at 13:51 ----------

Originally Posted by Carth

If you've been vaccinated and subsequently tested 2 months later, does the test pick up the active virus or antibodies?

Simply asking in order to ascertain if mass testing is picking up an active virus or the remnants of a dead one

Not that I really give a brown smelly one, currently the biggest threat to my health is bored frustration and a desire to lash out . . . thank God I don't own a weapon

Can the vaccine give me coronavirus?

No, you can’t get coronavirus from the vaccine. A vaccine would not be approved for use if it could give you the disease it is supposed to protect you from.

The Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is not a live vaccine, meaning it does not contain any live viruses - nor does the Moderna vaccine. The Oxford vaccine contains a harmless form of a different virus, which has been altered so it cannot cause an illness.

https://www.bhf.org.uk/informationsu...tions-answered

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Unfortunately, "local local downs" are as effective as "no-peeing" zones in a swimming pool…

Quite, Add to this the government have already stated local lockdowns will not be used (if you believe what they say that is)

[Taf]

Whilst hundreds of people are still arriving at the ports and airports and then using public transport to get home, I expect no sudden end to this.

And after all this time, I wish the daily figures were all sent in on a daily basis, and not in the bonkers way they are still being submitted. "We don't send in over the weekend". We don't submit daily". We don't submit on public holidays".

That's why the graphs look so odd. This is the daily death rate graph, and daily case graph for the same period.

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by jonbxx

This morning I have been looking the numbers for the UK to try and get a handle on what might happen going forward and I am not sure how conclusive things are right now....

The cases are definitely on the way up (link) Not unexpected given the looser restrictions now. However, I went all Donald Trump and wondered if this was due to more testing and so had a look at the positivity rate and that is also on the way up (link) too so this isn't just because we are looking more.

There is also an uptick on hospitalisations - 17% week on week (link) which is a bit more worrying.

However, deaths remain flat right now (link) which is good news.

I guess the decision for what will happen on the 21st depends on the following questions;

• Will the hospitalisations go up in line with the case load?
• Will the death rate follow this?

Historically, there has been a couple weeks to go from case to hospital and hospital to death so I think this will be a last minute decision

We do have to watch the hospitalisations, because whether or not people die at the end of it, this increases pressures on the NHS. However, I am not convinced by the percentage increases unless these become maintained, because we are dealing with small numbers here. Cases in half of the hotspots are already starting to decline.

This is not sufficiently significant to warrant the delay of relaxation of our control measures.

Originally Posted by jfman

Different facts twisted to the same old tune OB.

I'm unsure why you include "like it or not" - everyone welcomes the impact vaccination is having on more positive outcomes. It is indeed a game changer unfortunately you see the game as a binary choice of restrictions against no restrictions.

A significant proportion of the population remain both unvaccinated and partially vaccinated. It's a game changer but you wish to cut the game short and hope for the best - then again that was your attitude on 23 March 2020 to hope for the best.

I'll stick to getting my insightful analysis from others on the forum happy to utilise evidence and cite their sources. The other day, while confusing hospitalisations with deaths (minor error, I know) you also made the unsubstantiated claim that most people are now asymptomatic?

Do you have a source for that one or was it merely invented to suit your dogmatic view that we should not, and never have had, restrictions regardless of the impact on hospitalisations and deaths?

If vaccination is the game changer you profess it to be what's the problem with a few more weeks of getting more out there while also keeping large swathes of the economy open? When the alternative - if you are wrong - is lockdown? I'm sure those business owners open just now wouldn't thank you for it.

Jfman, if you think the answer to all this is lockdowns, you are on your own. The lockdowns were an extreme response to an extreme danger, but we have the vaccines now, which have made the need for more damaging lockdowns unnecessary. You seem to think that extending the emergency measures by a few weeks won’t matter, when you must have read the news items showing that many businesses will finally collapse if that happens.

Look at the graphs, which clearly show that under 40s were largely unaffected by the virus, with only small numbers being admitted into hospital. Given that the vast majority of under 40s are now vaccinated, why are you so concerned?

Now we are inviting over 20s to be vaccinated. Your obsession with lockdowns is clearly overkill, but you just don’t see it, do you?

As far as the number of asymptomatic cases is concerned, I think we are underestimating, however, I would point you to the article from The Independent:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...-b1828361.html

[EXTRACT]

More than half of people with a strong Covid infection did not report any of the major symptoms, new figures from the Office for National Statistics have revealed.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

Jfman, if you think the answer to all this is lockdowns, you are on your own. The lockdowns were an extreme response to an extreme danger, but we have the vaccines now, which have made the need for more damaging lockdowns unnecessary. You seem to think that extending the emergency measures by a few weeks won’t matter, when you must have read the news items showing that many businesses will finally collapse if that happens.

A delay in easing restrictions does not equate to lockdown.

I’m not really willing to accept there’s a plethora of businesses who have sustained restrictions from March 2020 to date - including actual lockdown that are on breaking point over the next few weeks.

These are classic Old Boy straw men.

Look at the graphs, which clearly show that under 40s were largely unaffected by the virus, with only small numbers being admitted into hospital. Given that the vast majority of under 40s are now vaccinated, why are you so concerned?

Doesn’t sound like the figures clearly say anything. Was that a small number of hospitalisations or deaths I know you’ve been confused over this matter before.

Now we are inviting over 20s to be vaccinated. Your obsession with lockdowns is clearly overkill, but you just don’t see it, do you?

Straw man once more. Current restrictions aren’t lockdown.

There’s also a ton of data one dose of the vaccine isn’t sufficient against the latest strain.

As far as the number of asymptomatic cases is concerned, I think we are underestimating, however, I would point you to the article from The Independent:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...-b1828361.html

[EXTRACT]

More than half of people with a strong Covid infection did not report any of the major symptoms, new figures from the Office for National Statistics have revealed.

One report versus all the previous data around it. I remain sceptical, in particular using the phrase “strong covid infection”. Either the majority of cases are asymptomatic or aren’t.

Old Boy you claim to not want lockdowns yet insist upon car crash approaches from March 2020 to date. So forgive me for not believing you have the best interests of the nations health at heart.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

<SNIP>
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/h...-b1828361.html

[EXTRACT]

More than half of people with a strong Covid infection did not report any of the major symptoms, new figures from the Office for National Statistics have revealed.

I can quite believe that. Was my cold, which lasted 10 days with some breathing strain if I exerted myself "symptomless" Covid? Or just a cold? I judged the latter so did not isolate nor go for any test.

Oh - just before the goodie two shoe Remainer Lib-Dems jump in, I've had my two doses before the episode I just reported. My point is that the unvaccinated will have had to make the same judgements were they to be suffering strong cold systems.

[heero_yuy]

Quote from The Sun:

Portugal was today relegated to Britain's amber list after ministers sounded the alarm about a worrying new "Nepal mutation" of the Indian variant detected in the holiday hotspot.

Transport Secretary Grant Shapps this afternoon sent thousands of travel plans up in smoke by advising Brits NOT to go to the popular destination - and making returning passengers self-isolate from 4am next Tuesday.

Tough luck. All those who went racing out to Portugal and Spain on the assumption that both countries would be green by the time they returned will now be hit with testing bills and mandatory isolation. I have zero sympathy.

How could you be so stupid?

[Carth]

Covid: Indian variant 'now dominant' in the UK

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-57287112

As reported by the BBC . . dominant . . DOMINANT

The number of cases confirmed by laboratory analysis rose by 79% over the last week to 12,431.

12,431 cases across the whole UK, my god that's . . erm . . not many really is it, and that's the dominant strain?

aah but remember in the small writing folks, shares can go down as well as up