Coronavirus

[jfman]

The available evidence is that mutations reduce efficacy. To that end it's inevitable that a vaccine resistant variant will arise unless action is taken to drive down cases and roll out the vaccine. They're complementary actions, not competing ones.

There are no short cuts.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

Better to manage the pandemic in the real world not Pierre's hopes and dreams.

And in the “real world”, all the variants so far are non-vaccine resistant. Not my hopes and dreams, just the real world.

What world do you Live in? Oh I know it’s the ‘let’s all live in a totalitarian dystopian world”

Originally Posted by Pierre

I think we all share that hope.

However, do you have any legitimate reason to think that may be the case?

The Kent, Indian, Brazilian, South African variants are all non-vaccine resistant.

We’ll feel better by not worrying about “what ifs” and focusing on “what ares”

That's not how risk management works...

---------- Post added at 20:38 ---------- Previous post was at 20:37 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

He making a perfectly acceptable assumption based on available evidence. The vaccines currently work on all variants.



So much fear and trepidation, do you get out of bed in the morning or just lay there quivering under the covers all day?

You mean on this virus that's been around for 18 months, that people said "don't worry about it" at the beginning of last year, and that we are still learning about, including the issues with Long Covid?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/covid...190403035.html

Antibody drugs and COVID-19 vaccines are less effective against a coronavirus variant that was first detected in India, according to researchers. The variant, known as B.1.617.2, has mutations that make it more transmissible. It is now predominant in some parts of India and has spread to many other countries. A multicenter team of scientists in France studied a B.1.617.2 variant isolated from a traveler returning from India. Compared to the B.1.1.7 variant first identified in Britain, the India variant was more resistant to antibody drugs, although three currently approved drugs still remained effective against it, they found. Antibodies in blood from unvaccinated COVID-19 survivors and from people who received both doses of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine were 3-fold to 6-fold less potent against the India variant than against the UK variant and a variant first identified in South Africa, according to a report posted on Thursday on the website bioRxiv ahead of peer review. The two-dose AstraZeneca vaccine, which does not protect against the South Africa variant, is likely to be ineffective against the India variant as well. Antibodies from people who had received their first dose "barely inhibited" this India variant, said study co-author Olivier Schwartz of Institut Pasteur. The study, Schwartz added, shows that the rapid spread of the India variant is associated with its ability to "escape" the effect of neutralizing antibodies. (https://bit.ly/3fQLeJ0)

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

And in the “real world”, all the variants so far are non-vaccine resistant. Not my hopes and dreams, just the real world.

What world do you Live in? Oh I know it’s the ‘let’s all live in a totalitarian dystopian world”

Vaccines have lower efficacy against variants.

Some of them are unable to reach the herd immunity threshold. That leaves us knee deep in a pandemic with risks of hospitalisations and deaths. In the real world.

---------- Post added at 20:40 ---------- Previous post was at 20:39 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

That's not how risk management works...

In fairness to Pierre he's been pretty consistent for the last 15 months he has no interest in managing the risk.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

it's inevitable that a vaccine resistant variant will arise

Not inevitable, but possible, even probable, and if that happens we’ll deal with it each year, like the “flu”

Oooh, yes I’ve said the ‘F” word

unless action is taken to drive down cases and roll out the vaccine. They're complementary actions, not competing ones.

There are no short cuts.

Just roll out the vaccine, if hospitalisations threaten the NHS, then localised restrictions could be considered but there is no suggestion anything like that is required at the moment or the near future.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Not inevitable, but possible, even probable, and if that happens we’ll deal with it each year, like the “flu”

Oooh, yes I’ve said the ‘F” word

It's already half way there.

Just roll out the vaccine, if hospitalisations threaten the NHS, then localised restrictions could be considered but there is no suggestion anything like that is required at the moment or the near future.

National restrictions remain required it's too late for local restrictions to contain the Indian variant.

There's no chance of "normal" from June 22. Zero.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by Hugh

That's not how risk management works...

Well the “Ifs” are potentially infinite, if your risk management expertise is as good as your research expertise, I’ll get a second opinion.

You mean on this virus that's been around for 18 months, that people said "don't worry about it" at the beginning of last year, and that we are still learning about, including the issues with Long Covid?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/covid...190403035.html

Like I say based on available evidence, as the evidence changes so will the conclusions.

[jfman]

There’s plenty of evidence for vaccine escape.

You’re simply using a tedious metric that, if taken to extreme, a 10% efficacy vaccine could be described as working despite being absolutely useless.

Countries are already buying further vaccines for their populations. They aren’t doing that because this will all be over in a few weeks.

[Carth]

Originally Posted by GrimUpNorth

I hope you're not making potentially fatal assumptions there - i.e. that the existing vaccines will work against ANY new variant and if they don't that a new vaccine can be rolled out worldwide in a matter of days, because just look how far we are away from worldwide vaccination and we've been jabbing people as fast as we can for nearly 6 months.

If you're gamble doesn't pay off we could all be starting the whole sorry affair all over again. After all, you do know we're only playing catch-up with a virus which has got form for getting away from us. It's done it (possibly more than) once and is pretty likely to do it again - every time the virus replicates there's a chance it could mutate and that's kind of like playing virus russian roulette as the more often you pull the trigger.......

It looks to me (could be wrong) that you (and others) want lock downs to continue until everyone in the UK has been vaccinated and no new variants have appeared, which seems a tad silly to me.

Let me explain before you turn purple . . . there are other countries in the World with the same problems, and many of those are nowhere near our vaccinated population level. This means that unless you really lock down for months (or years) by closing all access to this country there will be further variants arriving daily/weekly/monthly until the whole world has been vaccinated and there have been no more variants anywhere for a period of time (3 months? ).

Doesn't seem a sound plan to me, but hey if that's what you want . . .

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by jfman

There’s plenty of evidence for vaccine escape.

You’re simply using a tedious metric that, if taken to extreme, a 10% efficacy vaccine could be described as working despite being absolutely useless.

Countries are already buying further vaccines for their populations. They aren’t doing that because this will all be over in a few weeks.

Really? Can you name one virus (out of the many) that has actually developed vaccine resistance?

Before you name Flu there is this.

The seasonal influenza vaccine is routinely undermined by antigenic evolution, evolution that occurs even in the absence of vaccination.

Link you might find it an interesting read.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by pip08456

Really? Can you name one virus (out of the many) that has actually developed vaccine resistance?

Before you name Flu there is this.

Link you might find it an interesting read.

The UK Government literally use the term vaccine escape to describe reduced efficacy. So this one.

The arbitrary threshold to reduce vaccine efficacy to zero as a definition of vaccine escape isn’t something I’ve seen outside this thread.

As evolution chips away 5% here and 10% there this has huge implications for population level immunity.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

The UK Government literally use the term vaccine escape to describe reduced efficacy. So this one.

So no then, just so we’re clear.

[GrimUpNorth]

Originally Posted by Carth

It looks to me (could be wrong) that you (and others) want lock downs to continue until everyone in the UK has been vaccinated and no new variants have appeared, which seems a tad silly to me.

Let me explain before you turn purple . . . there are other countries in the World with the same problems, and many of those are nowhere near our vaccinated population level. This means that unless you really lock down for months (or years) by closing all access to this country there will be further variants arriving daily/weekly/monthly until the whole world has been vaccinated and there have been no more variants anywhere for a period of time (3 months? ).

Doesn't seem a sound plan to me, but hey if that's what you want . . .

I don't want lockdowns to continue infinitum, like everyone else I've pretty much had enough. But what certain older members of the CF community seem to have conveniently forgotten (if they understood in the first place) is there has never been any promise from the government that restrictions will be lifted on the 21st June, only that the 21st is the earliest they could be lifted. They have already started to prepare us for possible ongoing restrictions for some time after the 21st.

Maybe you've hit the nail on the head and we should lock down once and for all until the rest of the world catches up. As long as the virus is out there and mutations are happening we run the risk of going on the merry-go-round again and again before we realise repeating the same old approach has done nothing but left us bankrupt and still with no end of the pandemic in sight. I really hope I'm wrong and if we get a straight 12 months of life as it used to be with no sign of a resurgence I'll happily come back here and say "I was wrong!".

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

So no then, just so we’re clear.

Who to trust. Government scientists or Pierre.

Not a tough one. Clear?

[Carth]

Originally Posted by jfman

Who to trust. Government scientists or Pierre.

Not a tough one. Clear?

Pierre, every time