Russia has invaded Ukraine
16-02-2022, 10:20
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#121
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Trollsplatter
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Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
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Originally Posted by RichardCoulter
Looking like Ukrainia won't be allowed to join Nato as, if they did and Russia invaded them, other countries (including us) would be obliged to come to their defence.
For some reason we don't want to do that, either because, even with America, we are not confident in winning any war with Russia or Ukrania is regarded as being worth sacrificing in order to avoid any military conflict ie loss of life etc. I'm not sure which.
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A war between the USA and Russia is a war between two nuclear powers. Such things are avoided carefully. This is why Biden wouldn’t even send an evacuation plane to Kiev in the event of an invasion; if it or its crew were caught even in the crossfire things could escalate badly.
Ironically Ukraine’s membership of NATO is I think more likely now than ever. The Russians arguably already made it easier by occupying Crimea where they have long had a major naval base that, prior to 2014, would have been subject to some very awkward negotiations had Ukraine joined the western alliance. They have also created the very clear impression that Ukraine is at risk of invasion making a mutual defence pact more desirable.
Once Ukraine is in NATO, the military door really is slammed shut on Putin. Western troops move in and risking their lives risks direct confrontation. Again, this is avoided carefully. It’s why the Cold War stayed cold. If Ukraine joins, then Putin is left trying to interfere with the politics of the country so as to bring about a Russian friendly administration that might take it out of NATO again.
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16-02-2022, 11:31
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#122
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vox populi vox dei
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Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris
A war between the USA and Russia is a war between two nuclear powers. Such things are avoided carefully. This is why Biden wouldn’t even send an evacuation plane to Kiev in the event of an invasion; if it or its crew were caught even in the crossfire things could escalate badly.
Ironically Ukraine’s membership of NATO is I think more likely now than ever. The Russians arguably already made it easier by occupying Crimea where they have long had a major naval base that, prior to 2014, would have been subject to some very awkward negotiations had Ukraine joined the western alliance. They have also created the very clear impression that Ukraine is at risk of invasion making a mutual defence pact more desirable.
Once Ukraine is in NATO, the military door really is slammed shut on Putin. Western troops move in and risking their lives risks direct confrontation. Again, this is avoided carefully. It’s why the Cold War stayed cold. If Ukraine joins, then Putin is left trying to interfere with the politics of the country so as to bring about a Russian friendly administration that might take it out of NATO again.
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I read somewhere that a country can't join NATO if it's borders are in dispute .
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16-02-2022, 12:52
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#124
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laeva recumbens anguis
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Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
Quote:
Originally Posted by papa smurf
I read somewhere that a country can't join NATO if it's borders are in dispute .
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https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/topics_49212.htm
Quote:
countries seeking NATO membership would have to be able to demonstrate that they have fulfilled certain requirements. These include:
- a functioning democratic political system based on a market economy;
- the fair treatment of minority populations;
- a commitment to the peaceful resolution of conflicts;
- the ability and willingness to make a military contribution to NATO operations; and
- a commitment to democratic civil-military relations and institutional structures.
Once admitted, new members would enjoy all the rights and assume all the obligations of membership. This would include acceptance at the time that they join of all the principles, policies and procedures previously adopted by Alliance members.
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16-02-2022, 13:09
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#125
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cf.mega poster
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Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
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- the fair treatment of minority populations;
- a commitment to the peaceful resolution of conflicts;
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Yet the United States are in 
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16-02-2022, 14:02
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#126
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laeva recumbens anguis
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Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carth
Yet the United States are in |
For prospective members only… 
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16-02-2022, 15:28
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#127
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Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hugh
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Military aircraft don't show up on this app.
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16-02-2022, 15:43
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#128
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Trollsplatter
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Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hom3r
Military aircraft don't show up on this app.
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They do, except when they don’t want to.
(Edit). Here’s one passing through:
Last edited by Chris; 16-02-2022 at 15:46.
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16-02-2022, 16:18
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#129
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laeva recumbens anguis
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Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hom3r
Military aircraft don't show up on this app.
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The six delta-wing symbols were Typhoons, and when you clicked on them you got their flight paths, call signs, etc.
Here’s a RAF Apache doing circuits…
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Last edited by Hugh; 16-02-2022 at 16:40.
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16-02-2022, 19:00
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#130
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The Dark Satanic Mills
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Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
I have it on my phone and like to check what’s flying over when I’m out walking. A few times I’ve seen private jets at fairly low level fly over without an active transponder and often wondered what shady character is on board that!
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16-02-2022, 20:19
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#131
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laeva recumbens anguis
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Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
Russia moving troops into ‘attack areas’ near Ukraine, minister warns
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/0...89b205a723ea76
Quote:
Russian troops have moved from holding areas to “more aggressive launch areas”, the defence secretary has warned.
Speaking at Nato headquarters in Brussels, Ben Wallace said that the number of Russian troops was increasing in “key areas” and he had seen no evidence of a withdrawal.
He told Times Radio that the build-up was in a different direction than the public messaging. “We saw some movement of Russian military forces from sort of holding areas to more front-footed deployed areas. I’ve been a soldier . . . you don’t deploy strategic weapons systems, you don’t build field hospitals, if you’re just going for a training exercise.”
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18-02-2022, 19:01
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#132
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Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
I have it on my phone and like to check what’s flying over when I’m out walking. A few times I’ve seen private jets at fairly low level fly over without an active transponder and often wondered what shady character is on board that!
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No transponders generally mean military
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18-02-2022, 20:16
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#133
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laeva recumbens anguis
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Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hom3r
No transponders generally mean military
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They have transponders, but with the ability to switch them off…
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19-02-2022, 18:23
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#134
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The Dark Satanic Mills
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Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
Quote:
Originally Posted by Pierre
I'll stick my neck out, and say I bet it doesn't.
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It didn’t!
Any other predictions from anyone?
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19-02-2022, 20:16
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#135
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Re: Russia & Ukraine invasion threat (Defcon 4)
Putin's got everyone dancing to his tune, especially Biden. You gotta admire Putin.
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