Russia has invaded Ukraine

[1andrew1]

It's a great thread.

In particular, really pleased to read this:

Dr Mike Martin UK Foreign Sec Liz Truss has stated that the UK strategic aim is to evict Russian forces from Ukraine (including Crimea, so back to pre-2014 borders). She also said it would take ten years but she’s wrong about that: Russian forces will collapse before that, and we’ll see a coup)

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/...44083233517571

[Sephiroth]

With Ukraine doing so well in terms of military strategy, wouldn't we want them in NATO? Could teach the Germans a thing or two!

[Pierre]

This is the most interesting bit

Give it four weeks; we’ll see Donbas go in the other direction, then Crimea will start to come into play

If Ukraine went to retake The Crimea that would be the final humiliation for Putin.

Putin has blundered massively, my own uptake, feel free to agree or disagree:

On February 24th, Putin ordered his illegal invasion, as reports came out of missile strikes hitting multiple cities in Ukraine, we knew then the war was on.

The plan was to decapitate the Ukrainian government & literally kill President Zelenskyy, doing this damages morale of all Ukrainians, so Russia’s attempts to seize Kyiv, and install its own pro-Russian government, this in effect would have made Ukrainian resistance collapse & and Putin gambled, he would have had toppled and taken Ukraine within the week.

A spectacular blunder of huge proportions. Ukraine is a massive European country, with a huge military army, it’s not going to lie down for the Russians and they didn’t, they doubled down, no tripled down. The show of defiance from Zelenskyy, has boosted the morale of the entire country.

Russia didn’t count for this defiance and they certainly didn’t expect to lose one of their navel strategic assets, missile cruiser, Moskva. The Russians are still putting together, Fake News, about ammunition exploding on board, causing the sinking. Ukraine claims, it struck the vessel with its Neptune missiles, U.S official and other key western allies, obviously believe the Ukrainian version.

My view is, because of the way Putin leads his country, with literal cold fascist style governance, much like Hitler. Hitler’s downfall was his paranoia and it will be Putin’s.

Trouble is, when Hitler was cornered, he fled to his mountain. He didn’t have one last throw of the dice in the form of Nukes. If he had them, he would have used them.

The U.S and other key NATO countries are beginning to believe, though this could still be a big mistake, that Putin is bluffing when he says, he’ll use them. My view is that when he finally sees he is defeated in Ukraine, let’s hope his henchmen do first and strike with a coup, but failing this, he’ll use a small scale Nuke, he’s that mad enough and he absolutely won’t accept defeat, neither will his own country and he knows that.

[RichardCoulter]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

It's a great thread.

In particular, really pleased to read this:


https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/...44083233517571

Me too.

[Hom3r]

Originally Posted by Mick

Putin has blundered massively, my own uptake, feel free to agree or disagree:

I agree, he expected Ukraine to roll over, he didn't expect 60+ year old grannies to train how to shoot an AK-47 to help protect their country.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Pierre

This is the most interesting bit

If Ukraine went to retake The Crimea that would be the final humiliation for Putin.

It would be the end of his tyrannical reign.

I don't see that happening though? Haven't they been putting Russians into that area over the years. I can't imagine it'll be a stable situation.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Damien

I don't see that happening though? Haven't they been putting Russians into that area over the years. I can't imagine it'll be a stable situation.

The key loss for Russia in the Crimea would be the naval base (Sevastopol) which Russia leased from Ukraine before the 2014 invasion. Ukraine gaining the Crimea would actually put Russia in a worse situation than it was before the 2014 invasion as I can't see Ukraine re-leasing Sevastopol to Russia.

If Ukraine did re-gain the Crimea, I wonder if UN peace-keeping troops might be deployed?

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by Mick

Putin has blundered massively, my own uptake, feel free to agree or disagree:

On February 24th, Putin ordered his illegal invasion, as reports came out of missile strikes hitting multiple cities in Ukraine, we knew then the war was on.

The plan was to decapitate the Ukrainian government & literally kill President Zelenskyy, doing this damages morale of all Ukrainians, so Russia’s attempts to seize Kyiv, and install its own pro-Russian government, this in effect would have made Ukrainian resistance collapse & and Putin gambled, he would have had toppled and taken Ukraine within the week.

A spectacular blunder of huge proportions. Ukraine is a massive European country, with a huge military army, it’s not going to lie down for the Russians and they didn’t, they doubled down, no tripled down. The show of defiance from Zelenskyy, has boosted the morale of the entire country.

Russia didn’t count for this defiance and they certainly didn’t expect to lose one of their navel strategic assets, missile cruiser, Moskva. The Russians are still putting together, Fake News, about ammunition exploding on board, causing the sinking. Ukraine claims, it struck the vessel with its Neptune missiles, U.S official and other key western allies, obviously believe the Ukrainian version.

My view is, because of the way Putin leads his country, with literal cold fascist style governance, much like Hitler. Hitler’s downfall was his paranoia and it will be Putin’s.

Trouble is, when Hitler was cornered, he fled to his mountain. He didn’t have one last throw of the dice in the form of Nukes. If he had them, he would have used them.

The U.S and other key NATO countries are beginning to believe, though this could still be a big mistake, that Putin is bluffing when he says, he’ll use them. My view is that when he finally sees he is defeated in Ukraine, let’s hope his henchmen do first and strike with a coup, but failing this, he’ll use a small scale Nuke, he’s that mad enough and he absolutely won’t accept defeat, neither will his own country and he knows that.

My view is not much has changed since WWII, let's cut to the bs about nazis and spheres of influence, the reason he invaded was because a prosperous Ukraine on the boarder would make Russians think why can't we have that and topple Vlad and his chums cushy lives, it's why there is more troops and security services in Russia keeping the population in check than their is in Ukraine and it was the same 75 odd years ago, thousands of Soviet soldiers who were in any way impressed with German houses compared to their own hovels were sent to the gulag.

I think you're right, I think he expected Zelenskyy to flee and the country to collapse, I suspect we did to given the Anericans offered to fly Zelenskyy out.

I think it'll have to be his henchmen that topple him, it's why I thought it such a good idea to go after their wives and children with sanctions, can't see the Russian people rising up to do it like they did 100+ years ago and that'll lead to a bit of nose holding when it comes to dealing with his successor

I've quoted this book before WWIII by General Sir John Hackett, it's a future history written in the 70's, he's frighteningly accurate about the collapse of the Soviet Union in terms of events and timeline right up until Gorbachev, he had rabid hardliners in charge and on the brink of collapse they invaded Germany and get bogged down much like they have in Ukraine and as a final act of lunacy launch a tactical Nuke on Birmingham, we had to retaliate by dropping one on Kiev...

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/st...QtJseryZBkkUHQ

This whole thing has worked out pretty well for countries like Poland. Not only has it revitalised American interest in NATO which has been tested in recent years, brought Germany into a more active role and possibly added Finland and Sweden to the alliance but it's also depleting Russia's military capacity for any further threat. Poland is probably delighted to be shipping over weapons to have Ukraine fight them there reducing the chance Poland will ever need to do so.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Damien

This whole thing has worked out pretty well for countries like Poland. Not only has it revitalised American interest in NATO which has been tested in recent years, brought Germany into a more active role and possibly added Finland and Sweden to the alliance but it's also depleting Russia's military capacity for any further threat. Poland is probably delighted to be shipping over weapons to have Ukraine fight them there reducing the chance Poland will ever need to do so.

Putin's done more good to promote NATO membership than any previous Russian Prime Minister and American President put together.

I wonder if Poland is also getting rid of older weapons and getting newer ones from the US in their place?

Even if it's not, it's better for Poland that Ukraine uses those weapons against Russia troops than having to use them itself against Russian troops.

Originally Posted by Hugh

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/st...QtJseryZBkkUHQ

Nothing here is said or done by accident.

The USA is now spending the entire military budget of a mid-sized country on Ukraine. The UK is encouraging Ukraine to go after Donbas and Crimea. Poland has got the nod to transfer the sort of kit previously seen as too inflammatory for a country that might have found itself sharing a border with Russia had things gone sideways for Zelensky.

The mood music says NATO thinks Russia is a busted flush that can be brought to heel, and that there are enough sane people around Putin whose sense of self preservation will eventually compel them to replace him rather than obey him.

BREAKING: Russia has declared that it is not at war with NATO, as senior U.S Defence Official doubts Kremlins Nuclear weapons threats. - Sky News.