Coronavirus

[nomadking]

Originally Posted by jfman

In what sense? Less cases, less deaths, greater population?

We’ve had areas under lockdown restrictions for months now. They’re being proactive and, all going well, such measures will be taken at an appropriate time. On the other hand we continue to ignore scientific advice.

If, or more likely when, Germany ease restrictions we will likely be in the mire for a further period of time due to not taking quick and decisive action.

---------- Post added at 08:18 ---------- Previous post was at 08:16 ----------



Only interesting in the sense the British press usually enjoy stoking fear.

Struggling to reconcile points 2 and 4

“Second, all lives should be of equal importance and everyone should have a right to hospital treatment. “

“And in the case of Covid you are typically talking about lives which have already been long. “

So not equal then?

France and Germany are facing restrictions, whereas in the UK, everybody, especially the media, constantly whinge about restrictions. If only people and the media spent more time obeying existing rules and restrictions, rather than desperately trying to find loopholes.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

<SNIP>


Only interesting in the sense the British press usually enjoy stoking fear.

Struggling to reconcile points 2 and 4

“Second, all lives should be of equal importance and everyone should have a right to hospital treatment. “

“And in the case of Covid you are typically talking about lives which have already been long. “

So not equal then?

The longer version of the fourth point in the Sun is alarming:

At the moment the Government is sacrificing everything in order to extend lives at all costs.

And in the case of Covid you are typically talking about lives which have already been long.

What we say is take precautions and safety measures but have some regard to quality of life as well as quantity.

At best it's implying euthanasia and at worst is taking a let-the-elderly-die attitude.

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

The longer version of the fourth point in the Sun is alarming:



At best it's implying euthanasia and at worst is taking a let-the-elderly-die attitude.

Murdoch can be first..

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

The longer version of the fourth point in the Sun is alarming:

At best it's implying euthanasia and at worst is taking a let-the-elderly-die attitude.

The mask is slipping from the “herd immunity” crowd.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/b...box=1604006680

Notably they didn’t ask what threshold he would put on it.

He’s also invoked socialism. Someone should point out neither President Macron or Chancellor Merkel are politicians of the left.

[heero_yuy]

This is a telling graph:



The one country that decided to not to go lockdown mad but just follow sensible restrictions is avoiding the second wave and also the willfull destruction of parts of its economy.

Herd immunity?

covid_graph.jpg

[jfman]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

This is a telling graph:



The one country that decided to not to go lockdown mad but just follow sensible restrictions is avoiding the second wave and also the willfull destruction of parts of its economy.

Herd immunity?

Attachment 28637

I do enjoy a selective interpretation of what Sweden have done and an associated graph. I think Sweden is finding cases are rising. More cases recorded on 27th than at any time in the first wave.

[BenMcr]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Herd immunity?

Social distancing?

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3765

The report highlighted that on 17 March, Sweden moved to online learning only for all children 16 and over and university students, and did not return to face-to-face teaching until the middle of June. Schools for children under 16 stayed open, but have had small class sizes, social distancing, and hygiene measures put in place.

It also noted that Sweden has had other restrictions such as a ban on travel from outside the European Union (in place until November 2020), a ban on visiting retirement homes until October 2020, and a continuing ban on gatherings of more than 50 people.

And anyway:

He said, “We are extremely concerned that the Swedish model may be given some credence,” he said. “We believe it is ineffective. Sweden has had an enormous amount of deaths per head of population, 5880 deaths representing 581 deaths per million population. Compared with its neighbours it has been unsuccessful in preventing deaths—Finland, for example, has had 343 deaths, which equals 62 deaths per million population.”

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by jfman

I do enjoy a selective interpretation of what Sweden have done and an associated graph. I think Sweden is finding cases are rising. More cases recorded on 27th than at any time in the first wave.

Everybody is seeing more “cases”, which has already been shown to be a red herring of a metric that doesn’t really tell you anything useful, only just how non-lethal the virus really is.

That graph shows deaths which is a much better metric to use.

[BenMcr]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Everybody is seeing more “cases”, which has already been shown to be a red herring of a metric that doesn’t really tell you anything useful, only just how non-lethal the virus really is.

That graph shows deaths which is a much better metric to use.

https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/

As of Oct. 13, Sweden’s per capita death rate is 58.4 per 100,000 people, according to Johns Hopkins University data, 12th highest in the world (not including tiny Andorra and San Marino)

We're at 63.29 per 100,000 on the same date according to that article.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by BenMcr

Social distancing?

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3765



And anyway:

So they did less than we did. We shut schools, they didn’t.

Bottom line is, it is becoming more and more apparent that no matter what strategy any nation used there hasn’t really been any real successes. Just least worst.

So the one that keeps it’s economy going and doesn’t bankrupt itself will be the winner in the long run.

[nomadking]

Too much is dependent on the population size and density, wherever an outbreak occurs, and the behaviour of the people in that area.
A remote area may be badly affected, if a large number of people bring it into that area, whereas a densely populated area may not be affected that much, if only one or two people bring it into that area, and the people behave responsibly.


Link

Chatting in pubs, restaurants and homes was "mostly" how coronavirus spread before Wales' firebreak lockdown, Public Health Wales has said.
Dr Chris Williams, of PHW's data analysing surveillance team, said most cases had nothing to do with venues making mistakes.
The cases were simply down to how people behaved.
"It's not to do particularly with the nature of the pub or the bar," said Dr Williams.
"It's just the fact that you're talking to someone across a table who's in a different household.
"Talking, unfortunately, is great for transmission, as is singing and shouting.

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by BenMcr

https://time.com/5899432/sweden-coronovirus-disaster/

We're at 63.29 per 100,000 on the same date according to that article.

Not sure what point you’re making?

[BenMcr]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Bottom line is, it is becoming more and more apparent that no matter what strategy any nation used there hasn’t really been any real successes. Just least worst.

So the one that keeps it’s economy going and doesn’t bankrupt itself will be the winner in the long run.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...d-19-infection

Taiwan has reached a record 200 days without any domestically transmitted cases of Covid-19, underlining its success in keeping the virus under control as cases rise across much of the world.

---------- Post added at 10:39 ---------- Previous post was at 10:37 ----------

Originally Posted by Pierre

Not sure what point you’re making?

My point is that the argument was we should be 'open up' like Sweden. But even with the measures we have done we've got a higher death rate.

You can bet money it would be even higher if there had consistently been less restrictions as argued for.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Everybody is seeing more “cases”, which has already been shown to be a red herring of a metric that doesn’t really tell you anything useful, only just how non-lethal the virus really is.

That graph shows deaths which is a much better metric to use.

And of course showing the “deaths” graph in the previous form is skewed because of the disproportionate amount of deaths in care homes due to the absence of measures to prevent this.

I agree deaths is a good figure to use though and in the UK that figure is most definitely going the wrong way. So how do you propose to cause less deaths by opening up further?

[Pierre]

Originally Posted by BenMcr

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...d-19-infection


---------- Post added at 10:39 ---------- Previous post was at 10:37 ----------
My point is that the argument was we should be 'open up' like Sweden. But even with the measures we have done we've got a higher death rate.

You can bet money it would be even higher if there had consistently been less restrictions as argued for.

Yay for Taiwan!

Not so much “open up” but don’t “shut down”. Have sensible consistent restrictions and guidance that people will adhere to.

---------- Post added at 11:02 ---------- Previous post was at 10:52 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

I agree deaths is a good figure to use though and in the UK that figure is most definitely going the wrong way. So how do you propose to cause less deaths by opening up further?

No denying that they are going up, but currently on a shallow trajectory.

In regards to “opening up”. As I said in the previous post I just don’t think that shutting down is the answer.

We also need to remove inconsistencies, how can theatres/ cinemas be allowed to open and outside sporting venues not?

Inside only families be allowed around a table, outside 6 from different households around same size table. Is a marquee inside or outside? My local thinks it’s outside.

I could go on, the contradictions in regards to kids/schools......

Shut downs are not the answer. I don’t think there is an answer, so we have think differently