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Will Scotland Leave the UK?
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Old 19-10-2020, 21:32   #3496
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
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Could conceivably be the best outcome though for our concerned English members who want to save on Barnett consequentials.
Just so you know, so long as Scotland is part of the UK, I'm content with the current financial arrangements.


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Old 19-10-2020, 21:56   #3497
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
With tactical voting it could skew it massively. Of if a hypothetical party was “list only”. The Greens have tried to encourage this however the SNP are not so complacent as to do so.

The SNP could sweep the board in a constituency vote and a hypothetical party eat up half of the list seats through not having their regional vote adjusted on the basis of constituency seats.

Could conceivably be the best outcome though for our concerned English members who want to save on Barnett consequentials.
All of that is possible, but we still only get one list vote each. The splinter faction would have to persuade a lot of people who have given their constituency vote to the SNP withhold from them their list vote, and give it to the splinter instead. Proportional voting is still relatively novel in the UK and the system used for Holyrood (the additional member system, not D’Hondt, as I incorrectly stated earlier) is not the same as is used in Scottish councils or Euro-elections (which did use the D’Hondt system). That means the Holyrood additional member system has only ever been used a handful of times by anyone. It is far from clear that the sort of tactical vote switching Alex Salmond would require can be successfully communicated to enough voters to make a difference.

There is a threshold below which it’s effectively impossible to gain any list seats because there aren’t enough of them to go round for the system to be absolutely proportional. That’s what eventually did for Tommy Sheridan and his merry band of tinpot revolutionaries in the Scottish Socialist Party. People were still voting for them, just not in enough numbers for them to get even one list seat in each region.

Last edited by Chris; 19-10-2020 at 22:00.
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Old 19-10-2020, 22:15   #3498
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

There’s enough similarities to D’Hondt that I thought it was, but I also see it’s a D’Hondt hybrid if you like - with a constituency element.

And I agree the system to be skewed in a manner I described would be unlikely - it’d need 100% of the SNP constituency voters to not vote SNP on the list. I think in the real world it’d be impossible to get as much as half to do so, but somewhere around a third realistic. That’d have them ahead of the Lib Dems on the list.

I do accept the awareness of how the system works isn’t yet high enough for independence voters to exploit it.
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Old 03-11-2020, 11:09   #3499
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

While I'm sure Tories in the south are having a good laugh at the Scottish Government not knowing if furlough would be available in light of their public health decisions I'm sure it's a bad look to those who would rely on such funding, if available, who would be relieved at such uncertainty being removed.
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Old 03-11-2020, 12:17   #3500
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
While I'm sure Tories in the south are having a good laugh at the Scottish Government not knowing if furlough would be available in light of their public health decisions I'm sure it's a bad look to those who would rely on such funding, if available, who would be relieved at such uncertainty being removed.
I thought Krankie knew everything.
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Old 03-11-2020, 12:34   #3501
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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I thought Krankie knew everything.
If you mean the First Minister I'm sure she's not a mind reader. There's no genuine reason for the UK Government to seemingly be unclear and contradictory on this point.
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Old 16-11-2020, 23:28   #3502
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

BoJo gives the Scottish independence cause a helping hand.
Quote:
Boris Johnson 'called Scottish devolution disaster'

Downing Street has not denied reports that Boris Johnson called devolution in Scotland a "disaster".

The Sun newspaper also said the prime minister had described it as predecessor Tony Blair's "biggest mistake" in a meeting with Tory MPs.

The SNP has criticised Mr Johnson's reported comments.

But government sources suggested the prime minister had been making "more of a reference" to the SNP's running of Scotland than devolution in general.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54965585
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Old 16-11-2020, 23:47   #3503
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by 1andrew1 View Post
BoJo gives the Scottish independence cause a helping hand.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54965585
Heís not wrong.
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Old 16-11-2020, 23:48   #3504
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by 1andrew1 View Post
BoJo gives the Scottish independence cause a helping hand.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54965585
Relax, everything a Tory does or doesn’t do, gives independence a helping hand (or so we’re always told). It’s pretty much priced in.

Besides, he’s right, devolution is a disaster, because it was designed with the assumption that Labour would always be the largest party in Holyrood and the eternally successful New Labour project would be in power in London as often as not. It was recklessly constructed without any consideration for what would happen if the governing party in Edinburgh actively sought out and exploited its weaknesses. The SNP is very good at maximising grievance, complaining that it doesn’t have the powers to Make Scotland Great Again and not properly exercising the significant powers that it actually does have.

The Tories have had a good showing in Scotland of late but the nationalist madness isn’t really going to end until Scottish Labour works out what it’s supposed to be for, an exercise it hasn’t seriously undertaken for the best part of a century since it started taking the Scottish voters for granted. The SNP is being almost entirely propped up by the votes of the scunnered working classes of Glasgow and Dundee, who at present continue to buy the lie that independence will pave their closes with gold (as opposed to the reality, which is that the poor always suffer most at times of great social and economic upheaval, which is precisely what the SNP’s independence would be).
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Old 17-11-2020, 02:35   #3505
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Chris View Post
Relax, everything a Tory does or doesn’t do, gives independence a helping hand (or so we’re always told). It’s pretty much priced in.

Besides, he’s right, devolution is a disaster, because it was designed with the assumption that Labour would always be the largest party in Holyrood and the eternally successful New Labour project would be in power in London as often as not. It was recklessly constructed without any consideration for what would happen if the governing party in Edinburgh actively sought out and exploited its weaknesses. The SNP is very good at maximising grievance, complaining that it doesn’t have the powers to Make Scotland Great Again and not properly exercising the significant powers that it actually does have.

The Tories have had a good showing in Scotland of late but the nationalist madness isn’t really going to end until Scottish Labour works out what it’s supposed to be for, an exercise it hasn’t seriously undertaken for the best part of a century since it started taking the Scottish voters for granted. The SNP is being almost entirely propped up by the votes of the scunnered working classes of Glasgow and Dundee, who at present continue to buy the lie that independence will pave their closes with gold (as opposed to the reality, which is that the poor always suffer most at times of great social and economic upheaval, which is precisely what the SNP’s independence would be).
I won’t pick out the parts I disagree with (I’m sure you can guess) but there’s quality analysis in here of the problem unionism faces.

It needs a devolution settlement that suits Scotland not a party out of power in London and in danger of extinction up here.
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Old 17-11-2020, 12:21   #3506
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
I won’t pick out the parts I disagree with (I’m sure you can guess) but there’s quality analysis in here of the problem unionism faces.

It needs a devolution settlement that suits Scotland not a party out of power in London and in danger of extinction up here.
Presumably there are some lessons that Labour in Scotland can learn from Labour in Wales?

Labour nationally is playing the "we're not the Conservative Party" line which is fine for Westminster where there are no forthcoming elections but unhelpful in Scotland when there are some in Holyrood.
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Old 17-11-2020, 12:28   #3507
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

I would love to know how NS is going to survive with a population of 5.5 million?

I would be generous and say only 2.5 million will be old enough to earn wages.

That surly cannot be enough to pay for the bills a government need to pay.

More people live in London (9.3 m)

She would get no hand outs from us, then there be the requirement for a border, and all those people that work and live on different sides that would then require a border.

But what would happen in another lockdown situation should we allow people to cross (personally I'd say NO).

NS will bankrupt Scotland with 5 years.
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Old 17-11-2020, 12:35   #3508
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Hom3r View Post
I would love to know how NS is going to survive with a population of 5.5 million?

I would be generous and say only 2.5 million will be old enough to earn wages.

That surly cannot be enough to pay for the bills a government need to pay.

More people live in London (9.3 m)

She would get no hand outs from us, then there be the requirement for a border, and all those people that work and live on different sides that would then require a border.

But what would happen in another lockdown situation should we allow people to cross (personally I'd say NO).

NS will bankrupt Scotland with 5 years.
The Republic of Ireland has a population of 5m and seems to be able to pay for its own government. There's quite a few countries in the world that size.

But could Scotland on its own be able to take a punt on a broad portfolio of Covid 19 vaccines in the way that the UK has done? That's a different matter...
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Old 17-11-2020, 12:53   #3509
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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The Republic of Ireland has a population of 5m and seems to be able to pay for its own government. There's quite a few countries in the world that size.
We've been over this before.

That isn't the point, of course Scotland could be an independent nation of 5M people or less.

However, they would certainly not enjoy the level of public spending they enjoy now.

Or they could, if they borrow into oblivion.

Quote:
Originally Posted by pierre

UK debt is £2 Trillion, how much of this debt will Scotland pick up?

Given that per capita spending in Scotland is higher than in England by some margin.

Given scotland has a population of 5m, which is only 7% of the total of the UK 67M, what would be the formula?

2,000,000,000,000

Is stonking number whatever way you look at it, Scotland will not be starting fresh and walking away with a clean slate.

If the did it on per capita basis 7% of 2 trillion is still:

140,000,000,000

140 billion

Uk GDP is still around 2.2 trillion ( itíll take a hit this year)

Scottish GDP is estimated to be at 180 billion

Which on the face of it looks good - 40 billion in the black.

Until you see that total public annual expenditure in Scotland is 75 billion and last year they had a tax receipt shortfall of 940M

Nothing is impossible but it would mean a lot of Belt tightning or just keep running an annual 35-40 billion deficit To add to the 140billion and live happy.
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Old 17-11-2020, 12:57   #3510
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

That assumes an independent Scotland wouldn't use a single macroeconomic lever to increase tax receipts and investment.

It also assumes the UK tax system is perfectly optimised for investment and returns. Which isn't what the Conservative Party think.

There isn't a single small country in the world that looks at it's bigger neighbour and models it's tax and spending system on it.

Last edited by jfman; 17-11-2020 at 13:07.
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