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Will Scotland Leave the UK?
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Old 17-10-2020, 01:26   #3481
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by 1andrew1 View Post
In fairness to Old Boy, he says he won't attend your Economics 101 lecture yet as it would be out of sequence. He wants to see the first 100 beforehand.
Indeed there’s a mass gap of economics knowledge around, I’m not sure what to do...
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Old 17-10-2020, 09:36   #3482
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
Indeed there’s a mass gap of economics knowledge around, I’m not sure what to do...


Get enrolled into a good school, preferably not one in Scotland.
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Old 17-10-2020, 09:51   #3483
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
UK Government debt is £2 trillion.
Indeed, and how much of this debt will Scotland pick up?

Given that per capita spending in Scotland is higher than in England by some margin.

Given scotland has a population of 5m, which is only 7% of the total of the UK 67M, what would be the formula?

2,000,000,000,000

Is stonking number whatever way you look at it, Scotland will not be starting fresh and walking away with a clean slate.

If the did it on per capita basis 7% of 2 trillion is still:

140,000,000,000

140 billion

Uk GDP is still around 2.2 trillion ( it’ll take a hit this year)

Scottish GDP is estimated to be at 180 billion

Which on the face of it looks good - 40 billion in the black.

Until you see that total public annual expenditure in Scotland is 75 billion and last year they had a tax receipt shortfall of 940M

Nothing is impossible but it would mean a lot of Belt tightning or just keep running an annual 35-40 billion deficit To add to the 140billion and live happy.
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Old 17-10-2020, 10:47   #3484
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
UK Government debt is £2 trillion. Scotland are being 'permitted' to borrow not more than £3bn. I just did the sums - I know that's a revolutionary thought as others regurgitate nonsense.

You should join the jfman Economics 101 lectures I'm giving Old Boy in the Coronavirus thread. You may find them insightful.

If England are so bothered about propping up Scotland why don't unionist parties just say - good luck, best wishes and laugh as they leave? But no we get lies, bitterness and deception. It's almost like their claims aren't true.
A very large chunk of that "£2 trillion" went to Scotland. Especially if you consider the time before North Sea oil. They are responsible for that. Scots Blair, Brown, and Darling were also responsible for another large chunk of it, ie borrowing from 2002 onwards,


Your claim that Scotland couldn't independently choose to borrow is false. England has to also borrow large amounts on Scotland's behalf, at much lower bond yields(interest rates) than Scotland would ever get by itself.


England would never be allowed to get a say on this or indeed anything else. We're not allowed democratic control.
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Old 17-10-2020, 11:08   #3485
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Pierre View Post
...Scotland will not be starting fresh and walking away with a clean slate...
If Northern Ireland were to rejoin Eire, it would be interesting to see if some of the UK debt was allocated to it. Suggestions I've heard are that it wouldn't be. This could set an interesting precedent if Scotland were to leave too, although I appreciate that some will argue that the union of Scotland with England was different from the union of GB and Ireland.

Could there be financial benefit in the SNP holding fire on independence for a bit for a better long-term financial settlement with ex-GB? They would have to be confident that the majority in favour of independence would be maintained but if jfman's stats by age hold true, this should not be an issue.

---------- Post added at 10:08 ---------- Previous post was at 09:59 ----------

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Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
A very large chunk of that "£2 trillion" went to Scotland. Especially if you consider the time before North Sea oil. They are responsible for that. Scots Blair, Brown, and Darling were also responsible for another large chunk of it, ie borrowing from 2002 onwards.
It's Conservative governments who run the largest budget deficits, Nomad.
http://www.primeeconomics.org/articl...size-of-labour

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Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
England would never be allowed to get a say on this or indeed anything else. We're not allowed democratic control.
England got a big say on the EU referendum and is taking Scotland out against its will. But it needs to devolve more power and importantly money regionally. That would certainly help Track and Trace, for example. But this current government like many others is all about centralisation.
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Old 17-10-2020, 20:20   #3486
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Sturgeon is not ignorant of these issues and would prefer to hold a vote at the point of maximum advantage. Her problem is one of party management. The SNP is eating itself up at the moment, and while it has managed to more or less keep a lid on it so far it has the potential to blow up spectacularly next year, if Salmond decides to exact his revenge by launching a new “Indy now” party in time for the election. A lot of the party hardliners think the most important thing is to get a vote ASAP, win it by hook or by crook, and worry about the fallout later.
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Old 17-10-2020, 21:26   #3487
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Thumbs up Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Quote:
Originally Posted by 1andrew1 View Post
<SNIP>

England got a big say on the EU referendum and is taking Scotland out against its will. But it needs to devolve more power and importantly money regionally. That would certainly help Track and Trace, for example. But this current government like many others is all about centralisation.

I suppose that's one way of spinning it; but spin/nuance it is.

For the Referendum, there was no constitutional basis for each province (for want of a better term) to have a veto - or even qualified majority(!).

The Referendum was, as you know, UK wide and implemented on that basis. Of course, the government could have made some laws after the result so as to deal with regionality issues, but it didn't.

The SNP are making hay with this for their own purposes. We can all see what hypocrites they are because they want freedom the UK but want also to surrender that freedom to the EU. The SNP is all about a power grab, waling the world's corridors of Chief Ministers.

I would want to bring the SNP to heel. By all means devolve more powers to NI and Wales - but the Guvmin should withhold that from Scotland until the SNP behave more like it is part of the Union (which they won't). There should be no further referendum at least not before the next General Election. Whatever new powers we might offer them, they'll demand more.

I'm reasonably sure that the Scottish people are as fickle as anyone, in this case I'd say Boris and his manner/speech whatever is what's putting them off. But the people haven't analysed the financial situation, don't know from where the £15 billion spending gap will be plugged.

Otherwise, sod 'em.




---------- Post added at 20:26 ---------- Previous post was at 20:25 ----------

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Sturgeon is not ignorant of these issues and would prefer to hold a vote at the point of maximum advantage. Her problem is one of party management. The SNP is eating itself up at the moment, and while it has managed to more or less keep a lid on it so far it has the potential to blow up spectacularly next year, if Salmond decides to exact his revenge by launching a new “Indy now” party in time for the election. A lot of the party hardliners think the most important thing is to get a vote ASAP, win it by hook or by crook, and worry about the fallout later.
Exactamundo.
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Old 17-10-2020, 21:31   #3488
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Sephiroth View Post
[COLOR="Blue"]
I suppose that's one way of spinning it; but spin/nuance it is.

For the Referendum, there was no constitutional basis for each province (for want of a better term) to have a veto - or even qualified majority(!).

The Referendum was, as you know, UK wide and implemented on that basis. Of course, the government could have made some laws after the result so as to deal with regionality issues, but it didn't.
The context of my response was a reply to NomadKing. He had stated "England would never be allowed to get a say on this or indeed anything else."

I disagreed and by way of example cited the 2016 referendum.
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Old 17-10-2020, 22:55   #3489
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by 1andrew1 View Post
The context of my response was a reply to NomadKing. He had stated "England would never be allowed to get a say on this or indeed anything else."

I disagreed and by way of example cited the 2016 referendum.
Yes - but your words stood in their own right.

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Old 18-10-2020, 10:10   #3490
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Chris View Post
Sturgeon is not ignorant of these issues and would prefer to hold a vote at the point of maximum advantage. Her problem is one of party management. The SNP is eating itself up at the moment, and while it has managed to more or less keep a lid on it so far it has the potential to blow up spectacularly next year, if Salmond decides to exact his revenge by launching a new “Indy now” party in time for the election. A lot of the party hardliners think the most important thing is to get a vote ASAP, win it by hook or by crook, and worry about the fallout later.
Well, if Salmond did form a new party, he would split the independence voters and that would be interesting.
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Old 18-10-2020, 10:13   #3491
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
Well, if Salmond did form a new party, he would split the independence voters and that would be interesting.
He might as well go for it,the SNP will never deliver.
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Old 18-10-2020, 10:52   #3492
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Well, if Salmond did form a new party, he would split the independence voters and that would be interesting.
Holyrood is elected by the D’Hondt system, which uses regional party lists to add MSPs to those elected in constituencies, in order to make the composition of the chamber proportional to the vote. It isn’t perfect, but it seriously reduces the incidence of perverse outcomes such as the one you might have in mind. In this system, evenly splitting the independence vote between parties run by Salmond and Sturgeon would result (in theory at least) in them getting 30 seats each rather than Sturgeon’s SNP getting all 60. It’s not quite that simple because there are other parties also in the contest and because it isn’t possible to be perfectly proportional with only around 120 seats to be won. The combined independence seats could be slightly higher, or they could be slightly lower.
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Old 19-10-2020, 00:41   #3493
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Holyrood is elected by the D’Hondt system, which uses regional party lists to add MSPs to those elected in constituencies, in order to make the composition of the chamber proportional to the vote. It isn’t perfect, but it seriously reduces the incidence of perverse outcomes such as the one you might have in mind. In this system, evenly splitting the independence vote between parties run by Salmond and Sturgeon would result (in theory at least) in them getting 30 seats each rather than Sturgeon’s SNP getting all 60. It’s not quite that simple because there are other parties also in the contest and because it isn’t possible to be perfectly proportional with only around 120 seats to be won. The combined independence seats could be slightly higher, or they could be slightly lower.
All the same, the perpetual squabbling between the two parties would weaken their position.
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Old 19-10-2020, 00:49   #3494
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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All the same, the perpetual squabbling between the two parties would weaken their position.
It ought to, although it depends to a great extent on how many voters are choosing the SNP as a credible governing party, and how many are choosing them as a route to independence. “Wheesht fur Indy” is a powerful motivator in these parts, and some are prepared to put up with breathtaking incompetence from SNP ministers because they are a means to an end.
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Old 19-10-2020, 20:58   #3495
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Chris View Post
Holyrood is elected by the D’Hondt system, which uses regional party lists to add MSPs to those elected in constituencies, in order to make the composition of the chamber proportional to the vote. It isn’t perfect, but it seriously reduces the incidence of perverse outcomes such as the one you might have in mind. In this system, evenly splitting the independence vote between parties run by Salmond and Sturgeon would result (in theory at least) in them getting 30 seats each rather than Sturgeon’s SNP getting all 60. It’s not quite that simple because there are other parties also in the contest and because it isn’t possible to be perfectly proportional with only around 120 seats to be won. The combined independence seats could be slightly higher, or they could be slightly lower.
With tactical voting it could skew it massively. Of if a hypothetical party was “list only”. The Greens have tried to encourage this however the SNP are not so complacent as to do so.

The SNP could sweep the board in a constituency vote and a hypothetical party eat up half of the list seats through not having their regional vote adjusted on the basis of constituency seats.

Could conceivably be the best outcome though for our concerned English members who want to save on Barnett consequentials.
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