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Will Scotland Leave the UK?
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Old 15-10-2020, 23:22   #3466
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
Really?
As I've pointed out a supposed 20% extra missing revenue is too big to be really missing.
2018-19 spending £78,598m, income(including oil) £65,442m. £13bn required to bridge the gap.

---------- Post added at 20:43 ---------- Previous post was at 20:37 ----------


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Only £3.3bn of defence spending was attributed to Scotland, still £10bn to find. And that's with no defence spending in Scotland at all. How would fiddling around with tax generate an extra 20% revenue? If it was that easy, everybody would be doing it.
£10 billion deficit?

Perhaps theyíll do what the U.K. does - run up a National Debt, and run at a deficit until they sort out income to be greater than expenditure...

U.K. was (at the time of the 2019 Budget) expecting to run at a £29.3 billion deficit for 2020 (Iím sure thatís been revised upwards now), and having a National Debt of £1,840 billion.
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Old 15-10-2020, 23:29   #3467
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
Separatist tripe would, on the basis of polling, seem to have the edge going forward though.
Lacking a little perspective, perhaps. How many polls have shown a majority for the union, over how many years? What was the outcome the only time people were invited to make the choice for real, after months of detailed debate (as opposed to months of separatist politicians exploiting an international emergency as an opportunity for daily jingoistic rabble rousing)?

Given Sturgeon has had months to use a specific set of devolved powers to cast herself as Lady Protector of the nation I’m not especially surprised that we are where we are right now. But the fundamentals haven’t changed, and in fact they’ve got rather worse given the economic cost of the crisis. Unless you’re one of the proper swivel-eyed ones who thinks we really are discussing independence from the imperial power rather than the dissolution of a union, with all the asset and liability sharing that entails?

If there is a fresh referendum campaign in the next 5 years, the economic argument will be painful for the SNP to make, unless they think they can just brass it out like Salmond tried to do in 2014.
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Old 15-10-2020, 23:31   #3468
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Chris View Post
Apart from these ones?



For someone so vexed by age-old unionist tripe, youíre awfully fond of age-old separatist tripe.
tbf, theyíve had borrow the RAFís tin and flyboys until 809 Naval Air Squadron is formed, which is due to be stood up in 2023...
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Old 15-10-2020, 23:40   #3469
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Hugh View Post
tbf, theyíve had borrow the RAFís tin and flyboys until 809 Naval Air Squadron is formed, which is due to be stood up in 2023...
It makes sense for the RAF to skill up on the first ones to come off the line - in any case even the Invincible Class carriers embarked RAF Harriers when required.

QE and PoW are brand new, cutting edge ships carrying brand new, cutting edge planes. There was always going to be a lot of testing and training and the best logistics department in the world was never going to bring everything together at precisely the same time. That was foreseen a long time ago, which is why the US Marines were invited some time ago to provide air power alongside the RAF on QEís first operational deployment.

ďCarriers with no planesĒ is just one of several dog-whistle messages from 2014, appealing to that portion of the Yes vote that was in it entirely (or mostly) because of Trident, with little risk of upsetting the Forth and Clyde shipbuilders who were actually building the things.
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Old 15-10-2020, 23:47   #3470
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Chris View Post
Lacking a little perspective, perhaps. How many polls have shown a majority for the union, over how many years? What was the outcome the only time people were invited to make the choice for real, after months of detailed debate (as opposed to months of separatist politicians exploiting an international emergency as an opportunity for daily jingoistic rabble rousing)?

Given Sturgeon has had months to use a specific set of devolved powers to cast herself as Lady Protector of the nation Iím not especially surprised that we are where we are right now. But the fundamentals havenít changed, and in fact theyíve got rather worse given the economic cost of the crisis. Unless youíre one of the proper swivel-eyed ones who thinks we really are discussing independence from the imperial power rather than the dissolution of a union, with all the asset and liability sharing that entails?

If there is a fresh referendum campaign in the next 5 years, the economic argument will be painful for the SNP to make, unless they think they can just brass it out like Salmond tried to do in 2014.
The fundamentals of the argument may not have changed in your eyes, and to some extent you probably have a point, however demographics are shifting.

England is politically moving further away from Scotland in itís own search for a national identity, weakening the union in my view.

Iím not convinced the pre-2014 arguments for the Union will hold as much sway as they did then. I think many will feel let down by what was promised from staying in the UK that hasnít come to fruition. Iím not convinced people in Scotland will trust a Conservative government to lead the post-Coronavirus recovery in the interests of the whole UK.

I think the unionists need a new compelling case for the union and I donít know what that is or what itíll look like.
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Old 16-10-2020, 00:25   #3471
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by Hugh View Post
£10 billion deficit?

Perhaps theyíll do what the U.K. does - run up a National Debt, and run at a deficit until they sort out income to be greater than expenditure...

U.K. was (at the time of the 2019 Budget) expecting to run at a £29.3 billion deficit for 2020 (Iím sure thatís been revised upwards now), and having a National Debt of £1,840 billion.
2018-19 spending £78,598m, income(including oil) £65,442m, equals £13,156m deficit. Then assume no defence spending of any sort(no Trident etc), that reduces the deficit by £3.3bn, giving a deficit of around £10bn. Nobody would lend to Scotland unless they reduce that deficit. You can't keep forever borrowing money as Greece, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, and Cyprus will tell you.

A huge chunk of the UK deficit is subsidising Scotland. Then add in Wales and NI. Would the UK be able to borrow money, if the UK deficit was the same relative size as Scotland's? Even if they could borrow money, it would be very expensive(ie high interest) to do so. Scotland has been running a deficit for 20 years. They have no intention of reducing it. b
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Old 16-10-2020, 08:56   #3472
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
Yet you argue vociferously against the prospect. I think you should avoid following me round the forums to get embarrassed in thread after thread. Streaming, Coronavirus and now Scottish independence.

You don't know enough about the subject to meaningfully offer any input, instead you offer age old tried and tested unionist tripe. 45% of the population saw through it in 2014 and likely more when asked next time.

You make the false assumption that Scotland couldn't reform the tax system or dramatically cut expenditure. Things like Trident are immediate quick wins, and aircraft carriers with no aircraft.
I argue against the prospect because separation would be impoverish the Scottish population, who are being sold a pup by England haters. If separation does happen, however, the remainder of the UK will gain financially from it.

Incidentally, the UK as a whole is paying for Trident, not just Scotland. Scotland would lose the income generated by those who work there and instead would have to pay unemployment benefits for those who could not get alternative employment or decided not to move back to England.
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Old 16-10-2020, 08:59   #3473
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
I argue against the prospect because separation would be impoverish the Scottish population, who are being sold a pup by England haters. If separation does happen, however, the remainder of the UK will gain financially from it.

Incidentally, the UK as a whole is paying for Trident, not just Scotland. Scotland would lose the income generated by those who work there and instead would have to pay unemployment benefits for those who could not get alternative employment or decided not to move back to England.
Impoverish the Scottish population

A laughable assertion. Essentially the “too wee, too small, too stupid” narrative all over again. Please Old Boy come up and campaign for Scotland to stay. I can’t think of anything better for the cause of independence than English people pretending to not care but seething on the inside as the union crumbles.

I think given your failure to understand Government finances in the Coronavirus thread I’ll not worry too much about your analysis of Scotland’s finances at a macroeconomic level. You keep your household budget economics for keeping Mrs OB happy with poor value linear TV packages.
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Old 16-10-2020, 21:22   #3474
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
Impoverish the Scottish population

A laughable assertion. Essentially the ďtoo wee, too small, too stupidĒ narrative all over again. Please Old Boy come up and campaign for Scotland to stay. I canít think of anything better for the cause of independence than English people pretending to not care but seething on the inside as the union crumbles.

I think given your failure to understand Government finances in the Coronavirus thread Iíll not worry too much about your analysis of Scotlandís finances at a macroeconomic level. You keep your household budget economics for keeping Mrs OB happy with poor value linear TV packages.
So where is the economic argument, then? You can ridicule me all you like, but you have no answers.

Start with the ending of the British subsidy to Scotland. How the hell do you work out that this is not a problem if Scotland wants to stand on its own two feet?

More borrowing seems to be your answer to everything, in which case why doesnít Scotland borrow more now and stop sponging off England?
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Old 16-10-2020, 21:35   #3475
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by OLD BOY View Post
So where is the economic argument, then? You can ridicule me all you like, but you have no answers.

Start with the ending of the British subsidy to Scotland. How the hell do you work out that this is not a problem if Scotland wants to stand on its own two feet?

More borrowing seems to be your answer to everything, in which case why doesn’t Scotland borrow more now and stop sponging off England?
I've said before - the figures presented to you in GERS don't constitute what the economy of an independent Scotland would look like. Nor the expenditure choices an independent Scotland would make.

As for the bit in bold you clearly do not understand the devolution settlement, although I'm unsurprised by this revelation as you're clearly in this thread not to offer nothing substantive but simply provoke others. Scotland doesn't have the powers to borrow!

If you are so bothered about your perception of Scotland 'sponging' why are you not simply indifferent about whether Scotland goes independent or not?
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Old 16-10-2020, 22:10   #3476
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

Link

Quote:
Q: Who produces GERS?
A: GERS is produced by Scottish Government statisticians. It is designated as a National Statistics product, which means that it is produced independently of Scottish Ministers and has been assessed by the UK Statistics Authority as being produced in line with the Code of Practice for Statistics. This means the statistics have been found to meet user needs, to be methodologically sound, explained well and produced free of political interference.
The Scots produce GERS. If they disagreed with the methodology, what have they said that would increase revenues by 20%.


Link

Quote:
Asking if the Scottish Government is able to borrow money and, if so, which institutions can be borrowed from and the interest rate paid currently.
I can confirm that the Scotland Act 2012 gave borrowing powers to the Scottish Government, and which were extended by the Scotland Act 2016. Under the Scotland Act 2016 the following limits have been agreed:
  • the total, aggregate capital borrowing cap will increase to £3 billion (from £2.2 billion); and
  • the annual limit will be increased to 15% of the overall capital borrowing cap (£450 million).
If they were allowed to borrow, would they be able to? The "interest rates" charged would be huge, especially as the likelihood of them paying back is less than zero. They would have to default in a matter of a few years.



If the SNP are happy to spend less, why don't they? As I have to keep pointing out, if their defence spending was zero, there would still be a large deficit remaining.
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Old 16-10-2020, 22:23   #3477
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
Link

The Scots produce GERS. If they disagreed with the methodology, what have they said that would increase revenues by 20%.
They aren't allowed to disagree with the methodology. Indeed, their statisticians probably aren't given the huge amounts of data that HMRC have in respect of tax in the United Kingdom. Even then, as I've said, it's impossible to split out Scottish and English VAT.

Quote:
If they were allowed to borrow, would they be able to? The "interest rates" charged would be huge, especially as the likelihood of them paying back is less than zero. They would have to default in a matter of a few years.

If the SNP are happy to spend less, why don't they? As I have to keep pointing out, if their defence spending was zero, there would still be a large deficit remaining.
There's no indication that interest rates charged would be huge, especially in the current climate of near-zero interest rates around the globe.

Ooh aggregate borrowing at 0.0015% of what the UK Government borrows. Imagine the possibilities!
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Old 16-10-2020, 22:46   #3478
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
They aren't allowed to disagree with the methodology. Indeed, their statisticians probably aren't given the huge amounts of data that HMRC have in respect of tax in the United Kingdom. Even then, as I've said, it's impossible to split out Scottish and English VAT.

There's no indication that interest rates charged would be huge, especially in the current climate of near-zero interest rates around the globe.

Ooh aggregate borrowing at 0.0015% of what the UK Government borrows. Imagine the possibilities!
Quote:
Q: How do you decide on changes that are made to GERS?
A: In line with the Code of Practice for Statistics, changes are made to GERS after consultation and discussion with users. This includes discussion at the annual Scottish Economic Statistics Consultation Group,[1] which brings together users of economic statistics from industry, academia and the wider public sector. Public consultation exercises, open to all, are also carried out to allow all users of GERS to comment on planned and suggested changes to GERS.


Where does this 0.0015% come from?
UK borrowing includes the several 11 figure annual sum to prop up Scotland.
High deficit = high "interest rates".
"Not going to pay it back" = "Not going to lend you it, in the first place."


Estimates on VAT can be made. Their actual VAT would have to be double the estimated amount, in order to bridge the gap.

Still would nowhere near account for an alleged missing extra 20% in revenue.
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Old 16-10-2020, 22:56   #3479
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by nomadking View Post
Where does this 0.0015% come from?
UK borrowing includes the several 11 figure annual sum to prop up Scotland.
High deficit = high "interest rates".
"Not going to pay it back" = "Not going to lend you it, in the first place."

Estimates on VAT can be made. Their actual VAT would have to be double the estimated amount, in order to bridge the gap.

Still would nowhere near account for an alleged missing extra 20% in revenue.
UK Government debt is £2 trillion. Scotland are being 'permitted' to borrow not more than £3bn. I just did the sums - I know that's a revolutionary thought as others regurgitate nonsense.

You should join the jfman Economics 101 lectures I'm giving Old Boy in the Coronavirus thread. You may find them insightful.

If England are so bothered about propping up Scotland why don't unionist parties just say - good luck, best wishes and laugh as they leave? But no we get lies, bitterness and deception. It's almost like their claims aren't true.
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Old 17-10-2020, 01:14   #3480
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Re: Will Scotland Leave the UK?

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Originally Posted by jfman View Post
You should join the jfman Economics 101 lectures I'm giving Old Boy in the Coronavirus thread. You may find them insightful.
In fairness to Old Boy, he says he won't attend your Economics 101 lecture yet as it would be out of sequence. He wants to see the first 100 beforehand.
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