Britain outside the EU

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I thought we were going to have a bonfire of red tape when we left the EU to try and mitigate the GDP reduction. It seems like all that regulation was in fact needed afterall.

You do realise that all these “hasn’t happened” arguments have all the credibility of a child asking if we’re there yet when the car’s barely off the drive?

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

I thought we were going to have a bonfire of red tape when we left the EU to try and mitigate the GDP reduction. It seems like all that regulation was in fact needed afterall.

I don’t know how you make that out. We are behind in the timetable because of that little disrupter called Covid.

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

And how have they come up with a figure if we are still waiting for those opportunities to be seized?

Think of a number, halve it….

---------- Post added at 13:39 ---------- Previous post was at 13:38 ----------



Because it’s far too early. We are only in our first post Brexit year.

Oh, the irony…

What do you do - think of a number, then double it?

[Pierre]

Can’t vouch for the accuracy of this below, but it’s taken from a Linked In post, and Linked In “tends” to be a bit more sensible than other SM platforms.

But if true, the end isn’t nigh…….

This is just big headline stuff, not including all the other Investments in U.K. plc.

▪️ Cadbury announced plans to transfer production of its Dairy Milk bars from Germany and other sites across Europe to the UK.
▪️ The future of Vauxhall's Ellesmere Port plant was secured with a £100m investment. The site will become Stellantis' first factory dedicated to electric vehicle production for the Vauxhall, Opel, Peugeot and Citroën brands.
▪️ British supercar manufacturer Gordon Murray Group announced plans to invest £300m expanding its manufacturing and design operations in the UK.
▪️ Airbus officially opened its new £40m Aerospace Integrated Research and Test Centre (AIRTeC) in Filton.
▪️ Nissan announced plans to build a new electric vehicle at its Sunderland plant and, in partnership with Envision AESC, open a £450m gigafactory as part of a £1bn investment programme. The expansion will create more than 6,000 British jobs.
▪️ Ford announced plans to invest £230m converting its Halewood transmission plant to build power units.
▪️ British Steel unveiled a £100m investment programme.
▪️ Under construction in Goole, Siemens' new £200m train factory is expected to create 700 direct jobs.
▪️ The Hitachi Rail/Alstom joint venture was awarded a £2bn contract to design, build and maintain HS2’s new fleet of trains. The order will create and sustain 2,500 British jobs.
▪️ Rolls-Royce officially opened its new £90m Testbed 80 in Derby - the largest facility of its type in the world.
▪️ Kraft Heinz announced plans to invest £140m at its Kitt Green plant and start making tomato ketchup and other sauces in the UK for the first time since 1999.
▪️ Babcock unveiled its new £31.5m assembly hall at Rosyth and announced plans to create 500 jobs to support its £1.25bn Royal Navy Type 31 frigate programme.
▪️ BAE Systems announced it intended to hire 1.250 apprentices and graduates in 2021 – the highest number it has ever recruited in a single year.
▪️ Rolls-Royce's small modular reactor (SMR) programme - expected to create 40,000 British jobs - secured almost £500m in funding.
▪️ Norton opened its new multi-million factory and global HQ in Solihull.
▪️ Aston Martin broke ground on its new £200m F1 factory in Northamptonshire.
▪️The £130m UK Battery Industrialisation Centre (UKBIC) opened in Coventry.
▪️ Siemens Gamesa announced plans to invest £186m expanding its wind turbine blade plant in Hull. The investment will more than double the size of the site and create hundreds of new jobs.
▪️ Britishvolt secured planning permission for a new £2.6bn gigafactory in Northumberland.
▪️ Lotus invested £100m in its UK sites and created hundreds of new jobs.
▪️ JCB built a record number of machines, created over 1,350 new jobs, secured a host of major orders and invested £100m developing its award-winning hydrogen engine.

https://www.linkedin.com/posts/stuar...710531584-XiMM

[Mad Max]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Can’t vouch for the accuracy of this below, but it’s taken from a Linked In post, and Linked In “tends” to be a bit more sensible than other SM platforms.

But if true, the end isn’t nigh…….

This is just big headline stuff, not including all the other Investments in U.K. plc.



https://www.linkedin.com/posts/stuar...710531584-XiMM

Aye, but....

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Hugh

Oh, the irony…

What do you do - think of a number, then double it?

What irony? It’s not me who’s banding about ‘finger in the air’ figures.

What economists know is that when you create opportunities for business, businesses will seize them. But you cannot put a figure on it until you know in what way these opportunities will be exercised.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

What irony? It’s not me who’s banding about ‘finger in the air’ figures.

What economists know is that when you create opportunities for business, businesses will seize them. But you cannot put a figure on it until you know in what way these opportunities will be exercised.

The OBR does not bandy around finger-in-the-air figures, Old Boy. They know that macro is not a cash and carry.

What economists do know is that when you increase costs and red tape in one country, you put that country at a competitive disadvantage. That's where your minus 4% comes from. At the moment, the opportunities we're creating are for overseas businesses and not UK ones.

Take the latest farce - from January, our steel and aluminium producers will continue to face hefty 25% tariffs from the US whilst our EU competitors will face none.

The UK steel industry is braced for an immediate slump in trade from New Year’s Day when European Union rivals will gain a 25% price advantage selling to the giant US market.

The EU and the US reached a Halloween agreement to remove tariffs on a quota of steel and aluminium imported from the bloc into the US from 1 January, but tariffs will remain on all UK steel and aluminium exports after government talks failed to secure a matching breakthrough.

The international trade secretary, Anne-Marie Trevelyan, earlier this month invited the US commerce secretary for further discussions in London, which are understood to be scheduled for January. However, an industry source said they were not optimistic that a deal would be reached quickly.

The tariffs were first introduced by former president Donald Trump in 2018 under section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act on national security grounds. Imports supposedly undermined the US’s ability to produce its own steel.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...iffs-abolished

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

What irony? It’s not me who’s banding about ‘finger in the air’ figures.

What economists know is that when you create opportunities for business, businesses will seize them. But you cannot put a figure on it until you know in what way these opportunities will be exercised.

And the opportunities have to be real, and achievable.

If you were in a bar at the same time as Gal Gadot, you would have the opportunity to try and seize that opportunity, but the likelyhood of success is, at best, unlikely...

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Pierre

Can’t vouch for the accuracy of this below, but it’s taken from a Linked In post, and Linked In “tends” to be a bit more sensible than other SM platforms.

But if true, the end isn’t nigh…….]

No one said the end is nigh. The issue is that we are/will not be as successful as we would have been has we stayed as we were.

Stating a list of events without context is meaningless. These events could represent an over achievement relative to pre-2016 or an under achievement. You provide no means of assessing this.

Classic Leave messaging ..

---------- Post added at 18:27 ---------- Previous post was at 18:26 ----------

Originally Posted by Hugh

And the opportunities have to be real, and achievable.

If you were in a bar at the same time as Gal Gadot, you would have the opportunity to try and seize that opportunity, but the likelyhood of success is, at best, unlikely...

Which bar and when?

[Mad Max]

Originally Posted by ianch99

No one said the end is nigh. The issue is that we are/will not be as successful as we would have been has we stayed as we were.

Stating a list of events without context is meaningless. These events could represent an over achievement relative to pre-2016 or an under achievement. You provide no means of assessing this.

Classic Leave messaging ..

---------- Post added at 18:27 ---------- Previous post was at 18:26 ----------



Which bar and when?

You don't know that, it's surely too early to predict such an outcome as we have only been out of the EU for a short time.

[ianch99]

Originally Posted by Mad Max

You don't know that, it's surely too early to predict such an outcome as we have only been out of the EU for a short time.

Long term 4% GBP loss is a starter as supported by the macro economic "Gravity" model:

https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/gl...of_trade.html/

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Long term 4% GBP loss is a starter as supported by the macro economic "Gravity" model:

https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/gl...of_trade.html/

It’s only a model. You know, like the ones the over-predict Covid hospitalisations.

---------- Post added at 19:14 ---------- Previous post was at 19:12 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

The OBR does not bandy around finger-in-the-air figures, Old Boy. They know that macro is not a cash and carry.

What economists do know is that when you increase costs and red tape in one country, you put that country at a competitive disadvantage. That's where your minus 4% comes from. At the moment, the opportunities we're creating are for overseas businesses and not UK ones.

Take the latest farce - from January, our steel and aluminium producers will continue to face hefty 25% tariffs from the US whilst our EU competitors will face none.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...iffs-abolished

You are looking only at the EU, as usual. We will be thinking more globally in the future. That’s where our opportunities lie.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by ianch99

Long term 4% GBP loss is a starter as supported by the macro economic "Gravity" model:

https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/gl...of_trade.html/

So what? Sovereignty is the reason for Brexit and the 4% is priced in by the 52%.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by OLD BOY

You are looking only at the EU, as usual. We will be thinking more globally in the future. That’s where our opportunities lie.

I think you misread my post. We're talking about the UK facing tariffs when selling steel and aluminium to the US whereas the EU has been able to get these removed.

The EU will continue to increase its deals globally as well so we're unlikely to get any deals from other countries that we wouldn't have got with them. Maybe a bit quicker and maybe on inferior terms.

I know some may take a more socialist attitude when businesses complain and they're entitled to their opinions. But if you still believe there's unconquered territories just waiting for British exports, the experience of the Cheshire Cheese Company may be eye-opening.

Spurrell [company's co-founder] said he had pursued new business in Norway and Canada but post-Brexit trade deals sealed by the government had put barriers in place.

“We no longer have any ability to deal with the EU as our three distributors in Germany, France and Italy have said we have become too expensive because of the new checks and paperwork.

“And now we’ve also lost Norway since the trade deal, as duty for wholesale is 273%. Then we tried Canada but what the government didn’t tell us is that duty of 244% is applied on any consignment over $20 [£15].”

That meant Canadian customers who ordered a gift pack worth £50, including transport fees, were asked to pay £178 extra in duty when the courier arrived at their door, Spurrell said. “As you can imagine, customers were saying: ‘You can take that back, we don’t want it anymore’.”

Norwegian duty on a £30 cheese pack amounted to £190 extra, he said.

Spurrell is now pursuing the domestic market with greater vigour but says the cost of marketing has gone “through the roof” because all his competitors are having to do the same.

“Before we could sell across the EU, now we are all fishing in the same pond. We used to be the biggest online sellers but now we are absolutely bombarded with attacks by all our cheese rivals because they are buying all the ads on Google to try to beat us. These are competitors who would never have bothered us before,” he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/business...ver-negotiated

[GrimUpNorth]

Originally Posted by Chris

You do realise that all these “hasn’t happened” arguments have all the credibility of a child asking if we’re there yet when the car’s barely off the drive?

Think you aimed that one at Andrew by mistake, you should be pulling Old Boy up on his 'how do you know as it hasn't happened yet' arguements he does it quite often (for example, see his post immediately before the one of yours I've quoted).

To be honest though, Old Boy is nothing but consistent - his claims of the benefits still to come from Brexit are just like a rehash of his claims of the (impendingish) end of TV as we know in the next cough cough number of years.