Brexit (Old)

It's looking like a hardline of ERG members will continue to vote against the deal as well as Boris Johnson. Enough to kill it. So May's deal might not come forward now.

[Mr K]

Originally Posted by Damien

It's looking like a hardline of ERG members will continue to vote against the deal as well as Boris Johnson. Enough to kill it. So May's deal might not come forward now.

Maybe not this week., But next week afters she's been to the EU and negotiated/begged for a LONG delay, the Brexiteers will start to blink very rapidly and vote for it on the 27th/28th.

Turns out we didn't hold all or any cards after all, and we've over estimated our importance, who'd have thought it ?

[pip08456]

Bit difficult for the government to hold any cards when remain MP's forced them to show thier hand.

[1andrew1]

Labour won't back it in sufficient numbers. Last time Government talked of winning round 30 Labour MPs. They got three.
So extension and election likely. Second referendum has no legs.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Labour won't back it in sufficient numbers. Last time Government talked of winning round 30 Labour MPs. They got three.
So extension and election likely. Second referendum has no legs.

Not yet it doesn't, however if May cant get this through (and i suspect she will) and the EU hold position that the withdrawal agreement is non negotiable. then a 2nd referendum would seem to be the only plausible way forward.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by pip08456

Bit difficult for the government to hold any cards when remain MP's forced them to show thier hand.

If they had any cards at all in the first place we wouldn’t be in this position.

Europe has held one steady position throughout. We have not. We still can’t agree a position, despite the leadership of both main parties supporting Brexit.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

Not yet it doesn't, however if May cant get this through (and i suspect she will) and the EU hold position that the withdrawal agreement is non negotiable. then a 2nd referendum would seem to be the only plausible way forward.

Only plausible way forward after that is an election.
MPs are against 1) No-deal Brexit 2) Second referendum. I think those are fundamental factors in Brexit.

---------- Post added at 13:01 ---------- Previous post was at 12:59 ----------

Originally Posted by jfman

If they had any cards at all in the first place we wouldn’t be in this position.

Europe has held one steady position throughout. We have not. We still can’t agree a position, despite the leadership of both main parties supporting Brexit.

Spot on. Divided they rule has summed up our position.

[mrmistoffelees]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Only plausible way forward after that is an election.
MPs are against 1) No-deal Brexit 2) Second referendum. I think those are fundamental factors in Brexit.

---------- Post added at 13:01 ---------- Previous post was at 12:59 ----------


Spot on. Divided they rule has summed up our position.

What will a GE do ?

EU won't change position, no deal won't be allowed.

I don't see any other alternatives ?

[denphone]

Originally Posted by mrmistoffelees

What will a GE do ?

EU won't change position, no deal won't be allowed.

I don't see any other alternatives ?

And look what happened with our last general election...

https://twitter.com/tnewtondunn/stat...08543946031104

No10 sets new deadline for MPs: unless it’s clear there is a majority for an MV3 when Parliament rises on Tuesday night, PM will go to Brussels on Thursday and apply for long A50 extension (that’s the last possible moment to table an MV motion for debate on Weds).

[Dave42]

Originally Posted by pip08456

Bit difficult for the government to hold any cards when remain MP's forced them to show thier hand.

you mean it was a big lie from leavers that we hold all the cards we were never ever holding all the cards

[OLD BOY]

Originally Posted by Dave42

you mean it was a big lie from leavers that we hold all the cards we were never ever holding all the cards

The problem we have is that the negotiations have been held too publicly. The noises off from the remainers have disrupted those negotiations, and with the ERG joining in the disruption as a counterbalance, the EU have been able to take advantage of that.

The real issue has not been with the EU, it's been with the remainer-dominated House of Commons. I don't think anyone expected that, given that both major parties pledged to honour the referendum.

[jfman]

The problem has always been triggering A50 without a plan. We put ourselves under pressure.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by jfman

The problem has always been triggering A50 without a plan. We put ourselves under pressure.

Exactly.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Exactly.

We could have delayed triggering for two years to identify what we wanted a deal to look like and what no deal would look like. We could then credibly “threaten” a no deal outcome. Right now we are a laughing stock.