Brexit (Old)

[Stuart]

Originally Posted by djfunkdup

Good.

Cheaper exports. A falling pound improves the competitiveness of UK exporters.

Increases demand for domestic products. Imports are more expensive, therefore consumers are more likely to buy UK goods which increases UK aggregate demand.

A low Pound is beneficial in times of a recession, because it is helping to increase aggregate demand. In 1992, when the UK left the ERM, the pound depreciated and this helped the economy to recover.

The current account deficit should improve as the value of exports rises relative to the value of imports.

You seem to be assuming that we manufacture a lot of things. You also appear to be assuming that all or most of those things use a lot of parts made in the UK. Unfortunately, business people like James Dyson (arch Brexiteer) have been working hard ensuring all their manufacturing is outsourced to companies outside the UK (usually in China, or in the case of Dyson, Malaysia). In the case of someone like Dyson, the rising cost of importing is likely to mean the cost of exporting and to the consumer will go UP. This does, admittedly, depend if the've established a local subsidiary to handle the sales. However, a lot of UK manufactured goods rely on parts imported to UK the UK. The costs of those parts will go up, which will also drive the cost of the manufactured goods up.

You compare the situation now to the situation before we left the ERM, but you haven't factored in that we've had 30 years of businesses doing their utmost to outsource costly things like manufacturing and storage, with the tacit encouragement of the government of the time (both Labour and Tory). The economy was still heavily manufacturing based at that time. It's not now.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

Farage has been an MEP for 29 years and is entitled to his pension. Sneering at him for that reason lessens your stature.

l am not sneering at him as l am just pointing out the hypocrite that he is.

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

Nobody is sneering at him, just noting that economically he will be relatively unaffected by the consequences of a leave vote.

That's your opinion. a point like that is made as a sneer.

---------- Post added at 14:34 ---------- Previous post was at 14:33 ----------

Originally Posted by denphone

l am not sneering at him as l am just pointing out the hypocrite that he is.

Nobody is a hypocrite because they've put in 19 years of service and when retired, they get a pension.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

That's your opinion. a point like that is made as a sneer.

Rubbish its a fact so get over it..

[techguyone]

Originally Posted by Stuart

You seem to be assuming that we manufacture a lot of things. You also appear to be assuming that all or most of those things use a lot of parts made in the UK. Unfortunately, business people like James Dyson (arch Brexiteer) have been working hard ensuring all their manufacturing is outsourced to companies outside the UK (usually in China, or in the case of Dyson, Malaysia). In the case of someone like Dyson, the rising cost of importing is likely to mean the cost of exporting and to the consumer will go UP. This does, admittedly, depend if the've established a local subsidiary to handle the sales. However, a lot of UK manufactured goods rely on parts imported to UK the UK. The costs of those parts will go up, which will also drive the cost of the manufactured goods up.

You compare the situation now to the situation before we left the ERM, but you haven't factored in that we've had 30 years of businesses doing their utmost to outsource costly things like manufacturing and storage, with the tacit encouragement of the government of the time (both Labour and Tory). The economy was still heavily manufacturing based at that time. It's not now.

I think you like a lot of people seem to think we don't make anything anymore...

You're wrong

Some light reading for you: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/0...uring_figures/

And a chart for the hard of thinking. That's the Index of Production - our manufacturing base - failing to 'collapse'. The fact that we've also grown as global leaders in financial services does not mean that industry has gone away

[pip08456]

If May can get a 'legally-binding assurance' we won't be trapped in backstop indefinitely, then there is every chance that the withdrawal deal will be passed.

Business will have 2 yrs to prepare for full Brexit, the Government 2yrs to conclude a deal with the EU going forward.

It is the backstop that all are objecting to especially as it needs the agreement of the 27 to withdraw it.

She should have the vote tomorrow, lose it and go back to Brussels and get a time limited backstop of perhaps 1yr.

[Sephiroth]

Agreed.

[techguyone]

Agreed +2, backstop is the big elephant in the room

[jfman]

Originally Posted by techguyone

I think you like a lot of people seem to think we don't make anything anymore...

You're wrong

Some light reading for you: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/0...uring_figures/

And a chart for the hard of thinking. That's the Index of Production - our manufacturing base - failing to 'collapse'. The fact that we've also grown as global leaders in financial services does not mean that industry has gone away

An article from 2010 isn’t really helpful with analysis of post 2016 GDP.

---------- Post added at 15:12 ---------- Previous post was at 15:11 ----------

Originally Posted by pip08456

If May can get a 'legally-binding assurance' we won't be trapped in backstop indefinitely, then there is every chance that the withdrawal deal will be passed.

Business will have 2 yrs to prepare for full Brexit, the Government 2yrs to conclude a deal with the EU going forward.

It is the backstop that all are objecting to especially as it needs the agreement of the 27 to withdraw it.

She should have the vote tomorrow, lose it and go back to Brussels and get a time limited backstop of perhaps 1yr.

Why would the EU concede any of this?

[Stuart]

Originally Posted by techguyone

I think you like a lot of people seem to think we don't make anything anymore...

You're wrong

Some light reading for you: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/0...uring_figures/

And a chart for the hard of thinking. That's the Index of Production - our manufacturing base - failing to 'collapse'. The fact that we've also grown as global leaders in financial services does not mean that industry has gone away

None of which negates my point that the economy is no longer manufacturing based. It's also worth remembering that a lot of UK produced goods rely on imported parts, so prices will have to rise in line with the cost of those parts.

[Dave42]

Originally Posted by techguyone

I think you like a lot of people seem to think we don't make anything anymore...

You're wrong

Some light reading for you: https://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/0...uring_figures/

And a chart for the hard of thinking. That's the Index of Production - our manufacturing base - failing to 'collapse'. The fact that we've also grown as global leaders in financial services does not mean that industry has gone away

80% of UK economy is services

[Sephiroth]

Originally Posted by jfman

An article from 2010 isn’t really helpful with analysis of post 2016 GDP.

---------- Post added at 15:12 ---------- Previous post was at 15:11 ----------



Why would the EU concede any of this?

What you imply is probably right. But if they think we are now made of steel, would the £39 billion creep in somewhere in their thinking?

Originally Posted by pip08456

If May can get a 'legally-binding assurance' we won't be trapped in backstop indefinitely, then there is every chance that the withdrawal deal will be passed.

Business will have 2 yrs to prepare for full Brexit, the Government 2yrs to conclude a deal with the EU going forward.

It is the backstop that all are objecting to especially as it needs the agreement of the 27 to withdraw it.

She should have the vote tomorrow, lose it and go back to Brussels and get a time limited backstop of perhaps 1yr.

The problem then is that's it's not a backstop. The backstop is designed to kick in if all else falls and the deadline has been reached. Otherwise we're covered by the transition period. You at the very least would need to be generous with the length of the backstop to account for delays in coming to a permanent future arrangement.

Maybe the backstop is a joint arrangement for x amount of years before it defaults to Parliament.

[denphone]

This is from the Telegraph’s Steven Swinford.

Steven Swinford
✔
@Steven_Swinford


NEW

PM was pressed at Cabinet to give a date for the vote.

She wouldn't, instead saying only that it will be held by January 21st - the latest possible date.

Eurosceptics fear she will delay vote until last possible moment - meaning there's only time for her deal or no deal

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Sephiroth

What you imply is probably right. But if they think we are now made of steel, would the £39 billion creep in somewhere in their thinking?

Doubt it. We have to pay that anyway.