Ukraine on the verge of civil war!

[Uncle Peter]

Originally Posted by Damien

This is still about the people wanting to join EU and the Government wanting to keep a close alliance with Russia isn't it? Do we know how the population divides? Is it mostly pro-EU or is there a good body of public support to remain good relations and close ties with Russia?

While Ukranian ethnicity is a complex subject at a granular level bearing in mind the fact that those lands have been some of the most contested on the globe over the past 1500 years or so, the key divide in this day and age is that between native Ukrainian speakers and ethnic Russians (mainly around the Eastern and South Eastern borderlands).

There's a reasonably well balanced article here which puts the current situation into perspective somewhat while putting some numbers into the frame. The highlights being that 41 percent of those polled prefer a trade agreement with the EU versus 38 percent aligning with the Russian customs union. Presumably the remaining 21 percent were too drunk to care.

[Osem]

Ukrainian MPs have voted to oust President Viktor Yanukovych and hold early presidential elections on 25 May.

The vote came after police stopped guarding presidential buildings allowing protesters in and parliament appointed high-level officials.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26304842

They think it's all over, it's not yet!

Mr Yanukovych described events as a "coup" and vowed not to stand down.

I can't see the Russians accepting this with good grace. They'll not be wanting Ukraine to move closer to the EU.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

This is as much in their back yard as Syria. The EU in courting the membership of Ukraine is sowing the seeds of a future conflict IMHO.

I hope you're wrong but the Eurocrats' determination to expand the EU never seems to stop and sooner or later it'll be a step too far. Maybe Putin will decide this is that step...

For me the EU is like a housing bubble about to burst - driven by sentiment but underpinned by little.

I believe Russia has warned both NATO and the EU in the past about encroaching too near to them but nothing must stop the great EU project even if it brings into conflict with russia . This obsession to expand an already badly balanced union is crazy they need to stop stabilise and listen not something the EU has ever been accused of being good at.

[Uncle Peter]

Originally Posted by RizzyKing

I believe Russia has warned both NATO and the EU in the past about encroaching too near to them but nothing must stop the great EU project even if it brings into conflict with russia . This obsession to expand an already badly balanced union is crazy they need to stop stabilise and listen not something the EU has ever been accused of being good at.

Or perhaps the majority of Ukrainians have had enough of Putin's bullying after centuries of conflict and decades of oppression. When I say Ukrainians, I'm not talking about ethnic Russians who happen to live there.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Uncle Peter

Or perhaps the majority of Ukrainians have had enough of Putin's bullying after centuries of conflict and decades of oppression. When I say Ukrainians, I'm not talking about ethnic Russians who happen to live there.

Quite probably but the EU still needs to be conscious of whose toes it's treading on.

There's too much politics involved in this to simply go along with what the Ukrainian people might want and even if we were totally convinced it was what they wanted Russia and it's position cannot just be ignored. Putin is a bully no its or buts but he also controls a lot of energy and a growing military force with some generals that feel Russia needs to assert itself more on the international stage it's a dangerous mix for the EU to stomp into. A transitional period is needed here and maybe even concessions to Russia in some form.

[Uncle Peter]

When Putin and his ilk are gone there may be a chance that the "Rodina" and the West may be able to play nice. However I don't truly believe that the issue is with the EU, after all Ukraine would offer little to a CIS customs union monetarily. I believe the issue is with Obama or whatever cowboy succeeds him sticking his beak in just as he is now.

The people of Ukraine should decide what happens with their country and the EU should be willing to help if that's what the people want rather than sacrifice them to appease Putin. You let Russia do this and they'll still try to do so elsewhere.

[richard s]

The ex-President has fled to Russia or Belarus and has left behind a most lavish palace. Shame he was not joined by Nigel Farage and UKIP and Mr Dave and his Tory cronies.

The Ukraine has a massive amounts of land and is the bread basket of Europe plus other agricultural commodities which will benefit us in the EU.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

The people of Ukraine should decide what happens with their country and the EU should be willing to help if that's what the people want rather than sacrifice them to appease Putin. You let Russia do this and they'll still try to do so elsewhere.

Few would argue against that, here anyway, but getting involved in disputes with former Soviet states is a tricky policy which could backfire very badly.

I think the EU needs to be very careful how it goes about courting new members to the club and think its desire to expand is ill judged.

Originally Posted by Osem

Few would argue against that, here anyway, but getting involved in disputes with former Soviet states is a tricky policy which could backfire very badly.

I think the EU needs to be very careful how it goes about courting new members to the club and think its desire to expand is ill judged.

So is Russia's desire to expand it's influence further. Let the people decide what they want to do rather than leave them to the Russians for fear of upsetting them.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by Damien

So is Russia's desire to expand it's influence further. Let the people decide what they want to do rather than leave them to the Russians for fear of upsetting them.

And at what point do the stakes become too high? If Ukraine succeeds in this very likely other former Soviet states will want to follow. I don't know about you but I think a) the EU has more than enough balls to juggle right now and b) being seen to undermine Russia too much would be a very bad idea and I have no desire for us to return to the days of the cold war or anything like it.

Russia is almost if not larger then the EU and like it or not cannot be disregarded plus given how much energy goes from Russia to the west it's not smart to create tension. In an ideal world of course it would be as simple as what the Ukrainians want but this is the real world with real consequences for recklessness. I might understand this rabid rush by the EU to expand if all was well and good with currant members but the whole thing right now is a mess they have better priorities right now to sort out without creating tension with Russia.

[Osem]

Agree, the sooner or later the Russians are going to get mightily hacked off with what they see as threatening EU expansionism.