Post-Brexit Thread

Originally Posted by ntluser

I was thinking about deals post Brexit. Once we leave the EU we can trade with those who wish to trade with us as we are no longer EU members. I can't see Germany and others not wanting to trade.

problem is that when we leave we can't just make deals with Germany or France etc we have to make a deal with the EU as whole

[Osem]

Originally Posted by ntluser

I was thinking about deals post Brexit. Once we leave the EU we can trade with those who wish to trade with us as we are no longer EU members. I can't see Germany and others not wanting to trade.

If we have to go with WTO membership then fair enough but we can put the spadework in via informal talks to sketch our what kind of deal countries want with us and later go into formal talks a bit more prepared, hopefully cutting the time it takes to get a deal organised.

Not sure what kind of deal the EU will give us in the interim but I think we will have to give up the single market if we want to control immigration. Not sure too if France will continue the current deal re: immigration arrangements at Calais. Strange that the EU do not want to limit migration to their countries so long as those arriving can be routed on to the UK.

It will be interesting to see what happens if and when the UK invokes Article 50 and also what happens in the German and French elections as that may have a bearing on things.

---------- Post added at 16:36 ---------- Previous post was at 16:34 ----------



Well, you and I know that but does he?

Politics is a funny old game and we don't always get politicans who care about ordinary people running the country.

The older you get, the more you realise that leaders - even great/successful ones - sooner or later seem to wind up believing their own rhetoric, refusing to accept they're wrong and making big mistakes, which we all suffer for, as a result. Merkel's merely the latest in a long line...

I do think most start out in politics for the right reasons but it's amazing what a dose of power and the various trappings accompanying it eventually do to their morals and judgement.

Originally Posted by Osem

The older you get, the more you realise that leaders - even great/successful ones - sooner or later seem to wind up believing their own rhetoric, refusing to accept they're wrong and making big mistakes, which we all suffer for, as a result. Merkel's merely the latest in a long line...

I do think most start out in politics for the right reasons but it's amazing what a dose of power and the various trappings accompanying it eventually do to their morals and judgement.

Merkel has been so obsessed with the Euro project and how the dream is working she has failed to see what has been happening at her home

[ntluser]

Originally Posted by martyh

Merkel has been so obsessed with the Euro project and how the dream is working she has failed to see what has been happening at her home

I think that she and Hollande will only get the message when there is a massive landslide electoral victory for anti-EU parties but by then it will be too late for them and possibly the end of the EU as we know it.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by ntluser

I think that she and Hollande will only get the message when there is a massive landslide electoral victory for anti-EU parties but by then it will be too late for them and possibly the end of the EU as we know it.

I'd agree but even then they'll refuse to accept the Single European State vision and their role in it was misguided and naive. These people refuse to accept the inevitable and admit that a change in direction is urgently required and long overdue. An EU could work but only if the mentality of those running it changes. It'll be to everyone's benefit if that happens before the EU descends into extreme right wing hatred and all that follows but that's where I fear they're going to lead us...

[ntluser]

Originally Posted by Osem

I'd agree but even then they'll refuse to accept the Single European State vision and their role in it was misguided and naive. These people refuse to accept the inevitable and admit that a change in direction is urgently required and long overdue. An EU could work but only if the mentality of those running it changes. It'll be to everyone's benefit if that happens before the EU descends into extreme right wing hatred and all that follows but that's where I fear they're going to lead us...

If the anti-EU parties win through, Hollande & Merkel may not be around to implement the Single European State vision, but I agree that the mentality of those running the EU needs to change rapidly to a more democratic and positive outlook.

[ianch99]

This will be interesting viewing:

Brexit: A Very British Coup?

I don't think Boris will come out of this too well ..

I never believed in boris and was fairly certain his involvement in the leave campaign was more to do with his ambitions then any genuine belief in leaving the EU and despite what the media may think boris i think put more people off then he attracted to the cause. It always struck me how stupid some of the things he said and did during the campaign and the only thing that made sense was him pulling some stunt. On the morning the result was in you only had to look at his face to see things hadn't gone how he planned and he was now stuck with a situation he had no plans for.

[Osem]

Originally Posted by ntluser

If the anti-EU parties win through, Hollande & Merkel may not be around to implement the Single European State vision, but I agree that the mentality of those running the EU needs to change rapidly to a more democratic and positive outlook.

What amazes me is that with relatively little compromise, the EU could be a wonderful thing yet these people are so wedded to their vision of the EU (i.e. the SES) that it's a case of "it's our way or no way". They'd rather fail and destroy Europe than compromise. How pathetic is that?

[Ignitionnet]

Originally Posted by martyh

My god man everytime you post you make it sound as if trading outside of the EU simply cannot be done ,i'm wondering how the vast majority of the world that exists outside of the EU actually manages on a day to day basis .I think your just scared to cut the apron strings that are the EU ,don't panic ,it will be fine ,we will manage just like all the other trading outside of the EU and EEA do

It's way easier to go without something entirely than to lose it. We keep hearing we're a trading, maritime nation, we'll be just a maritime nation.

I have no idea why you're so blase about this unless you genuinely have no idea what it all entails. If we cock it up, and all signs are that we're doing our utmost to, it really won't be fine. The Tories in charge of Brexit have made it abundantly clear that they have no idea what they are doing and would rather play to the audience. Businesses have a duty to their shareholders to start looking at relocating some of their enterprise right now.

We'll go from having free trade in goods and services with the EU-27 and nominally free trade with a collection of others to having free trade with no-one, no protection from the WTO, no structure to trading, and being unable to strike free trade agreements for a period. This may just make businesses somewhat more reluctant to do business here.

Free trade agreements aren't made for fun. The WTO doesn't exist for fun. Clearly countries enter into such things for a reason, and anything that makes life harder will cost money.

These aren't my opinions, they are the opinions of experts from constitutional and trade law, and it's way past project fear time now. I appreciate that no-one cares about experts anymore, just their own ill-informed opinions, but it's always worth reading them so you know what to ignore.

We can blow sunshine up our own arses and pretend that we're this magical, unicorn tipped miracle that doesn't need any of these because we've taken back control or we can get our heads out of said arses and perhaps encourage politicians to take theirs out too and get the best deal for the country rather than whatever they thing will win them the most votes.

I've pretty much given up on any prospect of being in the EEA now with Labour deciding to play UKIP probably putting an end to it, but an abrupt end to our current arrangements with no transition is, according to pretty much everyone bar politicians, a bad idea.

About the only thing we can do to ameliorate this is to render the years of austerity pointless by going on a spending and tax cutting spree and running deficits, which will be awesome. Over half a decade of austerity made pointless by a vote to self-harm.

---------- Post added at 22:49 ---------- Previous post was at 22:40 ----------

Originally Posted by ntluser

I was thinking about deals post Brexit. Once we leave the EU we can trade with those who wish to trade with us as we are no longer EU members. I can't see Germany and others not wanting to trade.

We can trade with them now. We just can't strike any trade deals until we've sorted our membership of the WTO.

https://www.ft.com/content/5741129a-...f-79eb4891c97d

How does the UK establish itself as an independent WTO member?

Each WTO member has a “schedule” of commitments for each of the agreements — including agriculture, industrial goods and services — setting out the terms on which it trades. Member states of the EU are bound by EU-wide schedules, negotiated by the bloc on their behalf. The UK could simply copy the EU commitments and slide seamlessly into membership exclusively in its own right, as long as no other WTO member objects.

Such states as Argentina can veto our attempts at joining the WTO. They have absolutely no reason to make this easy for us. We have absolutely no leverage with them.

See previous regarding Germany - need a deal with the entire EU-27.

What about services, where the UK is the world’s third-largest exporter?

The UK could extract its own existing promises from within the EU’s schedule and turn them into standalone commitments. This would allow, say, foreign consultants or engineers to operate in the UK, though in fact the degree of liberalisation in the WTO services agreement is low and the EU’s schedule is riddled with exceptions for individual member countries.

Hosuk Lee-Makiyama, director of the European Centre for International Political Economy and a former EU trade negotiator, says: “In theory it’s not hard to create a services schedule for the UK out of the EU schedule. But while it’s intellectually quite easy it’s an excruciating legal process.”

Mr Lee-Makiyama notes that it took five years to integrate Bulgaria and Romania into the EU services schedule after they joined the bloc. While some trade officials say it may be easier to create a schedule for a leaving member than one arriving, they seem to agree the process can be measured in years rather than months.

The politicians claiming this is a copy-paste job, entirely under our control once we leave are, simply, lying.

[papa smurf]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

It's way easier to go without something entirely than to lose it. We keep hearing we're a trading, maritime nation, we'll be just a maritime nation.

I have no idea why you're so blase about this unless you genuinely have no idea what it all entails. If we cock it up, and all signs are that we're doing our utmost to, it really won't be fine. The Tories in charge of Brexit have made it abundantly clear that they have no idea what they are doing and would rather play to the audience. Businesses have a duty to their shareholders to start looking at relocating some of their enterprise right now.

We'll go from having free trade in goods and services with the EU-27 and nominally free trade with a collection of others to having free trade with no-one, no protection from the WTO, no structure to trading, and being unable to strike free trade agreements for a period. This may just make businesses somewhat more reluctant to do business here.

Free trade agreements aren't made for fun. The WTO doesn't exist for fun. Clearly countries enter into such things for a reason, and anything that makes life harder will cost money.

These aren't my opinions, they are the opinions of experts from constitutional and trade law, and it's way past project fear time now. I appreciate that no-one cares about experts anymore, just their own ill-informed opinions, but it's always worth reading them so you know what to ignore.

We can blow sunshine up our own arses and pretend that we're this magical, unicorn tipped miracle that doesn't need any of these because we've taken back control or we can get our heads out of said arses and perhaps encourage politicians to take theirs out too and get the best deal for the country rather than whatever they thing will win them the most votes.

I've pretty much given up on any prospect of being in the EEA now with Labour deciding to play UKIP probably putting an end to it, but an abrupt end to our current arrangements with no transition is, according to pretty much everyone bar politicians, a bad idea.

About the only thing we can do to ameliorate this is to render the years of austerity pointless by going on a spending and tax cutting spree and running deficits, which will be awesome. Over half a decade of austerity made pointless by a vote to self-harm.

---------- Post added at 22:49 ---------- Previous post was at 22:40 ----------



We can trade with them now. We just can't strike any trade deals until we've sorted our membership of the WTO.

https://www.ft.com/content/5741129a-...f-79eb4891c97d



Such states as Argentina can veto our attempts at joining the WTO. They have absolutely no reason to make this easy for us. We have absolutely no leverage with them.

See previous regarding Germany - need a deal with the entire EU-27.



The politicians claiming this is a copy-paste job, entirely under our control once we leave are, simply, lying.

change the record dude we're fed up of the remoans

---------- Post added at 07:14 ---------- Previous post was at 07:12 ----------

Originally Posted by ianch99

This will be interesting viewing:

Brexit: A Very British Coup?

I don't think Boris will come out of this too well ..

it was interesting -and Boris got a good job out of it

[TheDaddy]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

change the record dude we're fed up of the remoans

Is that because you can't answer straight forward questions and prefer instead to rely on blind optimism? I keep hearing how we're going to make it work but no one ever says how.

it was interesting -and Boris got a good job out of it

Did he get a good job or a good job title, the Brexit minister has taken all the teeth out of his position imo and again imo bozo's been pushed sideways and sidelined.

[Ramrod]

Originally Posted by Ignitionnet

Just leaving this here as a reminder why it's so bizarre that there are Tories so horny over 'hard Brexit'.



Putting us at the mercy of such states as our #1 fan Argentina who may want a chat about the Falklands, or Spain, who may rather like the look of Gibraltar.

This is a pretty bizarre definition of taking back control - putting our economy at the mercy of a large part of the rest of the world.

I agree with you on this.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

change the record dude we're fed up of the remoans

---------- Post added at 07:14 ---------- Previous post was at 07:12 ----------



it was interesting -and Boris got a good job out of it

Have you ever thought that some on this forum might think the same of you my dear chap as we don't all think the same as you.

[Anypermitedroute]

Originally Posted by papa smurf

change the record dude we're fed up of the remoans

---------- Post added at 07:14 ---------- Previous post was at 07:12 ----------



it was interesting -and Boris got a good job out of it

Wow great way to argue a valid post, enlighten us, are you a part of the negotiation team, if so, help us all

Don't worry we will all lose together