Brexit

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by jfman

Are you accusing the Financial Times of maintaining an inaccurate list of polling data? That’s quite astonishing really. The media might have given more prominence to polls they prefer, but there were certainly polls out there from recognised organisations that showed a leave lead.

You've provided a link and people can make up their own minds on this.

Originally Posted by jfman

You can’t reasonably accuse me of lying when I present a record maintained by the Financiial Times.

Anyone with the time or inclination could go back and find releases from the respective organisations and test the veracity of the figures.

Yes there were, albeit less, remain polls in the last two weeks but that’s the nature of the statistical margin of error projecting such a close result.

That record is clearly wrong. I don’t need to google. I have a memory. I remembered the polling detail well. I remember the claims of Remain making progress via the polls in the run up to the referendum.

[1andrew1]

Under the cover of the events on Friday, Vote Leave dropped its challenge to the court case against it for electoral offences. A lot of media time was previously given to its denials but less is being given to its acceptance.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...toral-offences

Will be interesting to see if this is quickly forgotten or if it comes back to bite BoJo in the event of a leadership challenge.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by Mick

That record is clearly wrong. I don’t need to google. I have a memory. I remembered the polling detail well. I remember the claims of Remain making progress via the polls in the run up to the referendum.

So you can’t actually prove any of the figures are wrong?

I accept you will have a recollection based on whatever media you were consuming at the time but the efforts the FT went to in order to create the list I did be personally stunned that, if after almost three years, none of the polling companies have asked them to amend their record.

---------- Post added at 23:56 ---------- Previous post was at 23:56 ----------

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Under the cover of the events on Friday, Vote Leave dropped its challenge to the court case against it for electoral offences. A lot of media time was previously given to its denials but less is being given to its acceptance.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics...toral-offences

Will be interesting to see if this is quickly forgotten or if it comes back to bite BoJo in the event of a leadership challenge.

It’ll be back. This is going to be a key part of kicking it back to the people. The danger is making the same mistake as last time and losing again if there’s no compelling reasons to stay.

[1andrew1]

Talking of polls; an interesting development here or is it just a blip? Could this reduce the likelihood of a general election?

Public support for Labour party is 41 per cent, five points clear of Conservatives
At an election Labour would be on course to win 307 seats - 19 short of majority
Poll also revealed Boris Johnson has double the support of Sajid Javid to be PM

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...oint-lead.html

Originally Posted by jfman

So you can’t actually prove any of the figures are wrong?

I accept you will have a recollection based on whatever media you were consuming at the time but the efforts the FT went to in order to create the list I did be personally stunned that, if after almost three years, none of the polling companies have asked them to amend their record.

---------- Post added at 23:56 ---------- Previous post was at 23:56 ----------



It’ll be back. This is going to be a key part of kicking it back to the people. The danger is making the same mistake as last time and losing again if there’s no compelling reasons to stay.

Enough of the “prove it” bullshit. I know what the polls said, they had Remain consistently in the lead. How wrong they were and are again. That’s why they’re unreliable. Only one poll matters and that is the official one from 2016.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by 1andrew1

Talking of polls; an interesting development here or is it just a blip? Could this reduce the likelihood of a general election?

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...oint-lead.html

It’ll be interesting to see if it’s replicated across a broader sample of polls. If so it’ll make a general election less likely, which in turn makes a second referendum more likely to break the impasse.

[1andrew1]

Originally Posted by Mick

No they did not. Stop lying. The pollsters got it wrong in 2016 for foolishly leaning for a Remain win. I remember them well. I couldn’t give a shit what the FT says.

Unlikely as it may seem, I think you're probably both in broad agreement. Everything I read said that Remain was ahead. It was only the private polls conducted whilst poling was underway that actually said otherwise.
However, nowhere was Remain ahead by a substantial amount, so the figure quoted in the FT (48% Remain, 46% Leave) does not seem out of place.
There's actually a very good article in the FT which seems to be free "How accurate are the Brexit polls?" which covers this topic. https://www.ft.com/content/6a63c2ca-...d-26294ad519fc

[pip08456]

How anyone can believe a poll of (on average) 2000 people reflects the entire nation is beyond me.

As Mick says, the only poll that matters is the one with the cross in the box.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by pip08456

How anyone can believe a poll of (on average) 2000 people reflects the entire nation is beyond me.

As Mick says, the only poll that matters is the one with the cross in the box.

Arguably the only one that matters is the next Brexit referendum.

Nobody is saying opinion polling is perfect or has 100% accuracy to a population of 66 million people - it has a statistical margin of error - for 2000 people this is plus or minus 2 per cent

In the case of polling on a binary choice the obvious difference is the use of a “don’t know” option that isn’t on the ballot on the day.

In the case of a General Election the polls taken now could vary from an election because the campaign itself brings in greater rules on neutrality in broadcast media coverage and unforeseen topics/issues can change voting intention in a seven week campaign.

[pip08456]

Originally Posted by jfman

Arguably the only one that matters is the next Brexit referendum.

Nobody is saying opinion polling is perfect or has 100% accuracy to a population of 66 million people - it has a statistical margin of error - for 2000 people this is plus or minus 2 per cent

In the case of polling on a binary choice the obvious difference is the use of a “don’t know” option that isn’t on the ballot on the day.

In the case of a General Election the polls taken now could vary from an election because the campaign itself brings in greater rules on neutrality in broadcast media coverage and unforeseen topics/issues can change voting intention in a seven week campaign.

So you agree a waste of time then.

[jfman]

Originally Posted by pip08456

So you agree a waste of time then.

It’s not a waste of time if you understand what you are looking at is a snapshot within a range and not a promise of the next general election result.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by jfman

It’s not a waste of time if you understand what you are looking at is a snapshot within a range and not a promise of the next general election result.

l will will be very surprised if she carries out her threat to call a General Election given the increasingly bitter internecine civil war within the government.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-47763034

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...tion-plan.html

[heero_yuy]

Quote from denphone:


l will will be very surprised if she carries out her threat to call a General Election given the increasingly bitter internecine civil war within the government.

Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

[denphone]

Originally Posted by heero_yuy

Turkeys don't vote for Christmas.

And they certainly don't want a new leader in some of the loyal Tory heartlands.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ory-heartlands